so it turns out oil is actually worthless, it's everywhere and nobody needs it

STOCKS GO UP FOREVER

Made 3 trades today and I wound up making exactly $1. Weird day.

>>62118953
UP AND TO THE RIGHT

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>futures

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>>62118948
Mr Bobo is so close, I can hear him!

He’s claws are scraping the walls!

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buy the chip

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The worst part is that, as a goy who is forced to deal in the real world, there's no way to hedge against losing my job from oil shortages as long as the market is rigged to only go straight up to protect jewish billionaire portfolios at the expense of literally everyone else. I guess I'll just become homeless.

>>62118968
>Top Strategist: Buy Every Chip

If SPY opens above 700 tomorrow that will be the third 5 figure account I've blown up in 3 years

oh oh oh ugh ugh ugh I’m aboutta I’m aboutta GO UP AND TO THE RIGHTTTTTTTTTTAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaa phew

>>62118969
what job are you losing to oil shortages

>>62118967
once you capitulate I’m going to sell

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how do i short 4chan?

>>62118975
It's okay, I blew up a $70,000 roth IRA in 2 weeks by going all in on SOXL and selling the bottom during the nip carry trade fiasco

>>62118948
Hello working class, how was work today?

I just paid $60 for dinner for one at a fast casual place. Thanks long nose oligarchs, I'm glad that at least you made money today.

>>62118980
I work in the aerospace industry. No fuel means no flights, no flights means no airliner orders, no airliner orders means I'm another goy sacrificed in the name of enriching jewish oligarchs.

>>62118968
I bought a can of pringles today. Bearish for my health.

test

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Be honest. If I put all my dry powder into an S&P500 ETF tomorrow it's going to immediately pop the bubble, right?

>>62118983
>Fakes his own capitulation.
>You sell, his shorts print.
GGs.

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No seriously how the fuck is it still going up?

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Its over oil brethren

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>line go up
>line go down
Can't explain that

>>62118975
live laugh love babe

>>62119001
>The source did not say whether Iran would also agree to clear any mines it may have placed in that stretch of water or if all ships - even those linked to Israel - would be allowed to pass freely.
Lmao. "yes, feel free to use this exact passage where there may or may not be mines"

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where my HIMS homos at? I'm blasting 3mg of tesa off a fresh vial to celebrate. If we hit $35 this week I'm gonna bite the bullet and order the MOTS-C/SS31 stack I've been wanting to try since last year. Gonna give all my mitochondria a shiatsu massage with the happy ending.

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>>62118983
A once in a generation celebration Mr. Mumu.
No one alive today remembers the face of Mr. Bobo.
He has been gone a very long time.
And he is on his way.

Thread theme:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1tNXhF9nLp8

>>62118948
this vid is ai btw

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>>62118999
more buyers than sellers

SO ALL THATS LEFT THIS WEEK IS TO FIND OUT HOW BROKE BOBO WILL GO TRYING TO SHORT INDICES LMAO. MAYBE THEY CAN GO INTO THE NEGATIVES

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>>62119013
you don't say

STOP DUUUUMPIIIIIIIIIIIIING

>>62118999
SPY +2% ytd is no big deal

>>62119026
delete this

>>62118997
Yes, and if you dont buy, it will keep going up. This prison gets many people, including myself.

WTF is being front ran or chased after?

>>62118975
>>62118988
im gonna actually take the caps off for a while. this shit sucks guys. its time to stop this shit. im going to give you guys the playbook to stop losing money for the next three years.
what i want you guys to do is stop trading. just quit. take all the money you have, and everything you make over the next year or so, and just start putting it into general mills. sell some covered calls if you want a little extra free money. and just keep your capital preserved and safe in a stock that will for sure double in the next 3 years. just trust me on this. you are getting a great entry and it will go back up or at the very least the downside is extremely limited. i dont care about >muh economy and everyone buying walmart brand shit. stop it. do this shit, get your act together, work your jobs, save that money, put it into general mills, and in 3 years you will be happy that 1 you didnt blow all your money and 2 you will likely outperform any trading you wouldve tried to do

and secondly heres the most important part. stop looking at the market. stop caring about the news. get back into activities you like to do. maybe take up some new ones. be free of this shit. get your lives back on track and stop throwing money away. please guys. its gonna get a lot harder when you get older so you need to break this cycle of incinerating your money now

what idiot would put money into this market at this time, every red flag and warning is blaring

guess the spy is going to 710 tomorrow because this retard >>62119035 still hasnt gotten the memo yet

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lol

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SOXL TQQQ. I swear I don't know why I bother with literally anything else.

>>62119032
>WTF is being front ran
post-crash stimulus. Leverage now, HODL, sell high in like six to twelve months.

>>62119039
>5 Year Returns QQQ vs TQQQ
86.37% vs 99.11%

>5 Year Return SOXX vs SOXL
172.91% vs. 101.08%

>yfw when you are an index investor with more vol sensitivity for no reason

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>>62119029
I think I'd rather have it sitting in a high yield saving account while the market goes nuts than put it into the market and have it bleed.

The cause of this war is South Korea.

South Korea is famous for Samsung and K-pop.

Because South Korea smuggled strategic materials into Iran, Iran was able to acquire weapons of mass destruction, including biological weapons.

South Korean Firms Violate International Controls on Shipping Materials for WMDs to Iran and Syria
https://japan-forward.com/south-korean-firms-violate-international-controls-on-shipping-materials-for-wmds-to-iran-and-syria/

S. Korea should clearly explain fire-control radar incident
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181228/p2a/00m/0na/017000c

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>guess the spy is going to 710 tomorrow because this retard >>62119035 still hasnt gotten the memo yet

>>62119019
Good

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyK7YuwUWsU
one of those remarkable moments in time when everything felt exciting.

bears will never financially recover from this.

>>62118786

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>futures

>>62119033
>>62119033
>>62119033
Your concern for smiggers is appreciated, but I must ask that you go into a little more detail as to why you are so convinced GM is going to rebound so. Their ATH was in 2023 and they dropped well before the Iran war. Doubling their current price would put GIS higher than it was before the war.

What in the talmud is happening right now?

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>>62118975
>>62118988
>>62119033
BEHEAD LARPING JEET KIKE NIGGER TRANNIES

>>62119041
Huh, that's interesting. I might start buying USD and QLD. Always liked 2x better.

Test

>futures

>>62119054
Poetry would be -10% in the next 10 days, making for back-to-back 3-sigma events

>>62119038
Its only "disgusting" because he sold. Otherwise he would be skipping in the street and laughing. His bad choices and paper hands led him to his fate, and, most likely, will lead him to another loss later.

>>62119033
>Caps lock bro is kind and humble?Trying to help others
Typical based bull bro behavior

>>62118786
>>62119058
what changed?

>>62119033
So what do you think? Markets going up til at least Wednesday? Two more weeks? Calls have been free money. It feels too easy.

>>62118986
4chan mumbai is good concern saar, do not redeem

>>62119038
>Makes a move
>It goes bad
>This is your fault actually
Like clockworks

Tech is back!

>>62119033
I Liked you better with all caps I'm not reading all of that

>>62119054
good

>>62119033
Faggot

>>62119037
YOU'RE THE RETARD !!!!!

Test.

Things are very jewish rn

>tfw had the best trading day of my life but couldn't respond to the ding ding ding anon because 4chan posting is shit

>>62119041
Shouldn't the leveraged etfs be higher?

I just need it to down please god

Wtf i tried posting and 4chan just eats up my post what a dogshit website

Why should I even bother with dividend stocks?

>>62119058
what changed?

>>62119061
if you know anything about fundamentals you can look at its numbers for about 2 minutes and see that it meets all the criteria to start buying it pretty deep and imagine getting to enter at the bottom instead of spending 3 years getting punished
market cycles change. its not going to the moon but its being overly punished and it will end. if you dont know how to price a company dont buy it idc. im going in on it bigly for my long term folio. smg is really bad at directional bias and ive called buying 0dtes on the indices for over 10 days straight. im better at this than basically all of you

>>62119064
Why would I LARP about losing money?

>>62119061
>go into a little more detail as to why you are so convinced GM is going to rebound so
Food companies are cycling down. Pic shows four, smallest yearly decline is 20%, highest about 40%. All four have good dividends, but divies could be cut if there is a real problem wiht their business. I am starting too look into these companies now as I am interest in 'fallen angels' - once good companies that fell on hard times for various reasons, looking for that one, or few, that have the assets and ability to turn things around. Is this just a normal cycle? Inflation shock from Iran war has not hit yet, but its coming. If Trump pumps out $2,000 checks again to help with food I think one or more of these could rebound, better to buy some of the best one or two for dividends and potential price appreciation also. My oil stocks are high now, but at some point when the war ends and oil price will stay high for a while then start to trend/cycle lower (but summer is coming in the norther hemisphere so there is likely more fuel consumption), so might start to cycle out of oil into food.

I tried to tell you autists to buy BDC's last week, didn't I

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Yeah, that won't do. At all.
Time to build temporary harbors or something.

you guys need to read this shit
>>62112306

What was that

If you're confused, it's because you bought into anti-Trumpism and derive your information from reddit and pol. Here is what's happening and what will happen:
>the Islamic Republic is in the deepest crisis it has ever experienced from a combination of pre-existing pre-war economic crises, being bombed for 40 days straight that also involved economic infrastructure targets, extensive self-imposed nationwide internet blackout that's ravaged its digital economy, heavily disrupted trade revenues as much as it has inflicted trade disruptions on everyone else, and now a targeted naval blockade
>it has pissed off all of its neighbors, and Iran needs their cooperation to survive the post-war recovery
>the Islamic Republic needs sweeping sanctions relief and a massive injection of funds just to stay afloat in the short term
>in other words, Iran doesn't have the cards
This is the actual state of the only regional player currently menacing the Strait of Hormuz. What will happen is:
>there will be no restart of major hostilities and the war is over over over
>absent being bombed, any justification Iran had to keep the SoH closed evaporates
>no country on Earth will ever observe Iran's claim of sovereignty over the SoH or subject themselves to willingly pay imposed tolls, thus Iran will face pressure from all of their so-called "friends" to return to the status quo, which they will, because they have no choice
>the reopening of the SoH doesn't rest on the passage of a US-Iran deal; this will happen
>whether Iran becomes the Middle Eastern Venezuela or charts a new path forward depends on their acceptance of a US-Iran deal
>the conclusion of all of this is within the month
I don't get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to write a report for the big boys. If I can see something so obvious, so can they.

Is the captcha still AIDS?

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>futures

>>62119113
Beta slippage

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>>62119037
>Precious, finally all mine!

What the fuck is happening to 4chan? Did gookmoot hire a bunch of Indian coders that fucked everything up?

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>futures

ok I have capitulated and will switch to calls tomorrow

>>62118980
Literally everyone from freight forwarders to uber drivers is eating shit right now

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>>62119156
>they didn't audit their code with ai

test

>>62119119
This is the part where you post your 9 figure portfolio.

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>>62119116
Heckin' love my divvies. Every one's like a little advent calendar surprise to look forward.

Currently shovelling them into Nintendo.

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> futures

>>62119160
My daily food delivery hasn't been affected in any way?

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>>62119061

I hope we at least get a warning before they take the site down for good.

>>62119135
good call babe.
>you autists
takes one to know one. love you.

>>62119130
4shit would not allow the post with the financial data comparing the four companies. Maybe 4chan needs new tranny administrators to get the site running again

>>62119176
is weaponry the only kind of manufacturing america can't offshore? whats the downside to becoming an mgs-tier war economy

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rip

>>62119176
is this why TSLA pooomped today?

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What do I do now?

>>62119038
many such cases

>>62119193
Are you full port SPY or something

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you all make fun of oil baggies
but i am holding fart bags of natural gas
i don't even think its female gas

so, will this shit site ever start to function properly again?
at least my stocks are doing good

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another oil bagholder

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>>62119033
sanctimonious nigger
you spent every waking moment for the last 10 days on smg spamming for attention.
you are NOT anonymous
i know because I spent 10 days watching YOU
you're a CHILD and a PSEUD and EVERYONE KNOWS IT
Post your portfolio if you're so smart. You won't because it's embarassing. You're a scared little retard.
Go ahead and (You) me I know you can't resist.

>>62119203
he admitted to getting blown up and lusts for trannies

>>62118953
FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM
AT THE CORE I'VE FORGOTTEN
TAKEN FAR FROM MY SAFETY
THE MEMORY WON'T ESCAPE ME

>>62119201
>Make it make sense.
Priced in.

I like how even the fake and gay oil price is still like 50% higher than what it was a month and a half ago and the market just does not give a shit kek. Always bet on the irrationality of the market I guess you'll be right 9/10 times

are we back oilsisters?

>>62119215
it is not disconnected
there is some volume due to earnings season lol

Oilers get the burn

>>62119213
also Lebanon doesn't produce any oil lol. someone can correct me if thats wrong.

>>62119017
hello spooky poster
I hope you're having a good day

>>62119223
Hahaha

>>62119229
Ceasefire in Lebanon is a Iranian demand for peace and without peace the pool will be closed

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>>62119223
Oil is over
No one users oil anymore
Unless you're cooking and then you can use some olive oil

what can I do if I am all cash?

Everything is just going up and up

I sold my SOXL weeklies, can it go down a bit so I can load up again?

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>>62118948
alright boys, for all the people who think "it can't just keep going higher" like me, who thinks this is a giga retard pump, you're right.
it is a giga retard pump. but it can keep going higher. and usually a massive rally like this is a good sign for markets 12 months forward.

in other words, this is cope for all the people like me, who couldn't believe the massive retard pump and didn't buy, and now feel like you can't buy now because surely it's already over? Not really.
So you STILL have time to buy, you didn't miss the ship, it is still sailing and it will sail onward and upward
Any volatility over the next months is just an opportunity to maximize your gains.
A long bear market like dotcom bust or 2022 could happen, but that could always happen, and the point being made is that a massive giga rally (10%+ gains over 10 days) is NOT a bearish signal. It is actually a very bullish signal for the next 12 months
Same for SPY and QQQ

in other words, we're all gonna make it

>>62119235
well we saw how that turned out for markets and oil. that post was from 7 days ago.

>>62119237
>what can I do if I am all cash
get a fucking position maybe? lol

wait for tomorrow's market open or the day after if you are getting into tech
get in with 30%
leave rest 30-40% for dip buying the next 2-10 weeks
spend the rest for a bigger dip in the medium term 2-6 months

ride it out
surefire way to make money with simple long positions with ok dca

>>62119237
there is always stuff to buy. BX and ARES look like they have room to run.

>>62119146
>Is the captcha still AIDS?
and anal warts

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>>62119239
oh and I said this in a post that got eaten
but the SPY 700 resistance will become support, if it breaks through
and I think it will break through, once all the call wall is exhausted and people just give up and let it pass. Then it will shoot through 700 like nothing
today we saw it get right up close to that 700 wall and stay there, and kill every single person with a strike price at that level. it was not a firm rejection or bounce off 700.
so once all those people are exhausted, it will shoot through 700 and it might not ever go back there again. well, not until next year's april fools taco tuesday parade. haha.... hah. hahaha. Yeah it's not funny.
See you in 12 months!

>>62119135
you seem less upset today and i'm glad, want to see you at your best again soon. you are my dreamgirl and i love you with all my heart, and i'm so ready to make up and move forward.

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>>62119239
>alright boys, for all the people who think "it can't just keep going higher" like me, who thinks this is a giga retard pump, you're right.
>it is a giga retard pump. but it can keep going higher. and usually a massive rally like this is a good sign for markets 12 months forward.
oh, an apparently this kind of rally was a 99.7% percentile move for any random 10 day trading period.
so I don't feel so bad about not seeing it coming, and not believing it when it just kept going up. No one thought this would happen.

but now I don't feel so bad about "missing" it. I will be slurping cheapies.... SOON

>>62119201
The oil as a "market" is dead at the moment since both the US and Japan are already confirmed to be pushing the scales for short term political fallout reasons. It would be naive to think more countries aren't doing this.
>>62119237
Why, lmao

>>62119239
>pic
Sure, momentum is by definition autocorrelated. But right now, what controls momentum is a bunch of misrepresentation and misdirection coming form the White House concerning what's taking place in Iran. PPI was high and the lid is gonna blow on energy soon.

I agree it can still retard pump and us bears may never get our day, but there's still a chance this rugs. OPEX is this Friday and might reset the momentum going into next week.

>>62119196
VOO is my major holding but no, VOO/SCHD/QQQM are roughly 50% of my holdings

>>62119259
>>62119254
And you can't just keep looking at so few data points and extrapolating so much from it, you did yesterday too with the election year stuff.

>>62119267
> It would be naive to think more countries aren't doing this.
it is hard to imagine an oil cartel. if it existed i would name it something like Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. (OPEC)

>oil as a "market" is dead
that reddit poster may be dead.

>>62119268
>OPEX is this Friday
Why does that matter at all?

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oh shit I run out of non-retirement money in 15 years

>>62119277
Yes, you can literally watch mms battling over options strikes at close.

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>>62119201
There's a pretty big learning curve to the stock market stuff. HYSA's are where it's at for normies and bobos. they don't need more.

GUYS ROARING KITTY JUST POSTED
WE'RE FUCKING BACK BROS

>>62119267
>Why, lmao
Warren Buffet is sitting on 373B in cash, fucktard.

>>62119284
Wrong. Sgov.

>>62119259
>"it can't just keep going higher"
The Fed has endless fiat currency and their own trading desk, they can just buy the entire stock and bond market, and all the gold and real estate under any combination of facilities and by funding big banks and hedge funds.

>>62119276
Sure, fair. But now both the "supply" and "demand" side are nation state cartels.
Any fag complaining about "but X is happening why is ..." really just needs to understand it as a battle of the cartels.
>>62119223
No

>>62119277
I meant options expiration btw not operational expenses. It can lead to new market mechanics since dealers reposition and what not, so the underlying structural forces guiding price can change. Hopefully we see a meangingful uptick in volume since it's been so light relative to how insane the rally has been.

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>>62119291
lfg
>futures

>>62119294
He's 95 and has 300+ billion dollars. Would you still be shitcoin gambling at that point?

>>62119274
>And you can't just keep looking at so few data points
there's a lot more data points than that
I'm not posting every single thing I'm looking at in here, that would be spam

>>62119294
>373B in cash
retail thinks he has the same scope, also excludes any positions they already have

please do not post

>>62119271
>VOO/SCHD/QQQM are roughly 50% of my holdings
sounds good brotha

big back here
what are some stocks to complement my lifestyle?

>>62119033
i dont have anything else to do my life is empty

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You can see the golden line in this is the 30 day rolling VWAP, it really highlights how dislocated price is from where the volume was buying.

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What is the post-crash AI Chinese kung fu robot economy supposed to do with people like this?
I mean really…

Bussy is a gay man who was a protege of Soros and worked at one of his funds… what do you do with someone this stupid? Hook them up with UBI and have them do watercolors of elephants or something? Feed them grains through a hose and harvest the BTUs for energy like the Matrix?

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>>62119271
>VOO is my major holding

>>62119309
>retail is scared shitless
we know desu

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Is everyone enjoying the pump?

>>62119302
I'm just saying that curve fitting by cherrypicking data points like that isn't a good habit and correlation isn't causation of course. It's just overfitting basically.

>>62119315
What about that indicates retail? Retail probably bought the dip like always.

>>62118948
Why are the stock markets so gay? Nothing has changed since the strait closed, oil shortages will still be a thing at this rate in Asia but the markets are close to all time highs. The USA keeps building up troops in the area, Iran might close another strait, the USA is turning to a was economy and the markets don't care.

Why?

>>62119326
Markets
Are
Forward
Looking

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> futures

>>62119320
>I'm just saying that curve fitting by cherrypicking data points
it's not really cherrypicking data points though
the move is statistically significant, a massive rally over 10 days. Then looking at what happened in history, when similar sized moves happen. At all the similar data points. That's not cherry picking at all.

It's not curve fitting either. since the data is sampling from many time periods, which sample them at set intervals, which lets the chips fall where they may, including data points which are negative.
So it's just looking at what the curves are, in history. There is no curve fitting whatsoever.

Do you have a counter point, or your own data, or what? Or are you just trying to say nothing can be known and no one can predict anything, and looking at historical data is useless in general? Not a fan of epistemological nihilism.

>>62119326
>If this was serious then the markets would've crashed already. The tariff crash was a giant nothing burger as well. Covid recovered in 12 months. Might as well buy more.

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>>62119316
Naturally.

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stop being greedy

I can't believe I didn't buy any calls

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>>62119336
Look forward to this, shillbot >>>/pol/533226818

>>62119326
There is a non-zero chance the government is working with big players or something here in the interest of national security to bid price up to counter Iran's attempts at economic damage.

>>62119326
how will any of that effect the earnings of american companies? i'm sure it will but by how much? will they miss estimates? post losses? how will it effect liquidity in the financial markets? how do you know the market was right when it was going down and wrong now? couldn't it be the opposite case?
all rhetorical questions but the point is the market doesn't care about your feelings, doesn't have them in the first place, and it's not a democracy either. it goes up in response to people dumping cash on it, down in response to people dumping shares on it, that's all.

Test

>>62119336
Did you not read what I said? How forward looking are they if they don't discount oil shortages? If energy prices are 50 percent more expensive in just a month? How does that not change anything? How forward looking are they when they don't realize the second order effects of this?

The average person has become retarded and with a very short attention span and I think you're starting to see that in the stock market too

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>>62119338

goddamit who told me to buy spy puts at close i need to blame someone

>>62119344
dont euros have trains and walkable cities tho
the germans laughed at trump when he told them to get energy independence. they'll be fine, none of them had electricity where they were born in the middle east anyways. Damn arabs that's probably who forced me to go all in puts at close

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>>62119236
India does saar

>>62119237
Ease in slowly. Spread your cash out over a 2-5 year window

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>Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record Thursday amid a broader rally in Asia markets

>>62119336
Markets are forward looking, but sometimes they look way too far ahead and over-buy. The market priced in a peace deal and the U.S leaving, but none of that has happened yet, and when shit gets exploding again the market will dump itself until it correctly prices itself in

If you look at chart >>62119309 this is a rare event, and in all events that this happened, it later dumped harder then the previous dump.

Market over bought, or, i should say, was overly optimistic hoping on a Trump Taco

im just a mad as fuck bag holder tho so don't listen to me lol

>>62119348
Like I said, markets over bought, another dump is coming. They were too overly optimistic, and priced in peace when peace never happened.

>>62119346
>couldn't it be the opposite case?
Woyuldn't uncertainty increase the risk premiums at least?
And I know the market doesn't care about my opinions. That's not the point. I understand I'm trading with the market and I'm a price taker. I'm just saying that given the risks and potential bubbles out there, I rather put less money into it. Just pay more of my mortgage instead

>>62119339
>the move is statistically significant, a massive rally over 10 days. Then looking at what happened in history, when similar sized moves happen. At all the similar data points. That's not cherry picking at all.
That's exactly cherry picking though... You picked all the cherries that look like this one.

>It's not curve fitting either. since the data is sampling from many time periods, which sample them at set intervals, which lets the chips fall where they may, including data points which are negative. So it's just looking at what the curves are, in history. There is no curve fitting whatsoever.
The whole thing is curve fitting though. You're selecting data points and fitting a curve to them to determine estimate behavior...

>Do you have a counter point, or your own data, or what?
I'm just saying I find the approach kind of backwards I guess. It's the same thing people do when they grid search indicators and find something like
>when RSI is over 70
>and MACD is bullish
>and the fibanocci is retracing
>and the DXY is trending up
>then it's bullish

Like yeah you'll find things that are highly correlated with what's happening historically, but whether or not that's predictive is another matter that this doesn't inform.

>>62119362
>It's the same thing people do when they grid search indicators and find something like
Cab you elaborate? I fear Im wandering into this trap

>>62119354
90% of Iran's economy flows through the strait they are completely and utterly cucked and will capitulate soon

>>62119309
>You can see the golden line in this is the 30 day rolling VWAP, it really highlights how dislocated price is from where the volume was buying.
if you look at the volume of the SPX, meaning the volume of all the individual stocks in the spx, it was actually not lower
but the SPY etf did have lower volume as it went higher
meaning people ditched the etf and went back to buying individual stocks. it freaked me out too until someone pointed out the SPX volume was not lower during the up swing

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>>62119345
Perhaps.
We all but confirmed the treasury was fucking with oil futures (futures contracts at a 33% discount to physical last I heard), why not equities?

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>>62119350
>thinking this is just a European problem
This is happening EVERYWHERE you dumb faggot. There is no more fuel for ANYONE. There's no more petroleum left to manufacture all of those goods that we import from overseas, and there's no fuel for the container ships to transport them hete either. Because the jewish oligarchs that run our government keep manipulating the market to paper over the crisis, instead of high prices you're going to get NO PRICES. The essential commodities that we all depend on to live are GONE.

>>62119323
>Retail probably bought the dip like always
no most of retail gets scared and doesn't buy during these dips lol
the assume the world is ending/it will all get worse
they assume the dip is only the start of a bigger bottom so they miss out

Respect the market, close your shorts, open longs, and enjoy the green. Wait for actual resistance to form before shorting again. We in price discovery now, and it seems there are still unliquidated bobos.

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>>62119363
>Cab you elaborate?
Naturally.

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>people are so stupid.
>why cant they see what i see?
>everything is so obvious. why cant they see what i see so clearly?
>why are markets not acting the way i expected them to? its so obvious how they should act.
will these people ever stop to ask "am i wrong?", "is my worldview wrong in any way?"

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Trump said 5-6 weeks, trust the plan

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>>62119368
lol yea that's a completely rational and realistic take and you don't sound mad at all

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> futures

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>>62119362
>That's exactly cherry picking though... You picked all the cherries that look like this one.
um... no
That's not what cherry picking is.
Looking at every single point in history which matches this pattern, then letting the chips fall where they may, and just looking at the data, is not cherry picking.
That's literally the opposite of cherry picking. Cherry picking would be doing this entire test, then removing any negative data points because "they didn't count".
>The whole thing is curve fitting though. You're selecting data points and fitting a curve to them to determine estimate behavior...
Wait a second, are you saying you literally cannot look at a cloud of data points and fit a trendline to it, and call it a pattern and then make predictions about the future?

Okay so that's just full blown epistemological nihilism.

>I'm just saying I find the approach kind of backwards I guess. It's the same thing people do when they grid search indicators and find something like
>>when RSI is over 70
>>and MACD is bullish
>>and the fibanocci is retracing
>>and the DXY is trending up
>>then it's bullish
Yeah I agree if you add a bunch of stuff together, it gets more tenuous. This is not that. It's just looking at what happens when you have a massive giga rally, and what usually happens after that in stock market history. Pretty basic stuff.
It's not like this is drawing 15 lines on a chart to go full blown schizo finding patterns that aren't really there

>>62119197
bro you're not suppose to trade natural gas fart bags if you don't know what you're doing. those indexes were created with the intention that anyone trading underlying derivates would at least have the sense to hedge with bath water inflation swaps.
>>62119144
lmao. this is true for a couple months at best
>>62119176
people will think global banker war 3 is good for earnings. full clownmode until the IPOs

THIS IS A FAKE NIGGER MARKET RUN BY JEWS
THE END

>>62118965
I dont know if its making fun of those who got vaccinated or the retards that thought she'd be dead in 2 more weeks? I dont get it anymore.

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Do whatever you want with your jewish casino, I don't give a shit. The world already walked off an economic cliff and no amount of hebraic corporate baseball cards will be able to keep your stomache full or fuel your car. SPY will be at 10k while you're literally starving and without power.

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>>62119363
>Cab you elaborate? I fear Im wandering into this trap
just don't add 15 indicators together to convince yourself of something
If you don't get a clear and obvious signal, then you add more and more shit to convince yourself of something, the more likely you are basically hypnotizing yourself. The more complicated story you tell yourself, the more likely it is nonsense.

>>62119192
Yes, TSLA will mass produce tasers

>>62119387
True

>>62119371
>Wait for actual resistance to form before shorting again. We in price discovery now, and it seems there are still unliquidated bobos.
yep
it will blast through 700 and we'll see what the price is after it all shakes out.
QQQ and SPY were just going up up up. I did not want to short that shit.

>>62119390
>Ultimate chud award

>>62119375
>>people are so stupid.
>>why cant they see what i see?
>>everything is so obvious. why cant they see what i see so clearly?
>>why are markets not acting the way i expected them to? its so obvious how they should act.
>will these people ever stop to ask "am i wrong?", "is my worldview wrong in any way?"
I had to go through this today
sold all my shorts. I can short the market again, once it's done going up
It's a giga retard pump, but it is what it is. I don't need to stick around for all that pain riding the wave upward.
I can just start buying longs instead

especially since, when it breaks through 700 it will go crazy. and 700 will likely become the next support because it was the old resistance.
we might not even get back down to 700 again. Think about that. Crazy! the markets changed so fast

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- A massive fire broke out at the Viva Energy refinery in Australia, which leaves Australia with only one operating refinery. The refinery processed around 120,000 barrels per day and supplied around 10% of Australia’s fuel supply.

Notably, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has already called on citizens to ration fuel amid a global oil shortage following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The cause of the fire is still under investigation, with officials ruling out intentional malice.

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>signals

So the market is up because everyone thinks that Trump is absolutely retarded and all he's going to do is taco, taco, taco.
He's right. I am tired of winning

>>62119384
Yeah, cherry picking was probably the wrong word, but like when you did the midterm year analysis thing. That's cherry picking a context to look at within, and it wasn't discarded because it was supportive of your bias. I could see what Chinese New Year animals correlate with forward returns, but it'd be useless. What you're doing is cherrypicking the causal factors and evidence that you believe may be predictive of forward returns. In the end I'm just saying you want to avoid this kind of selection bias.

>Wait a second, are you saying you literally cannot look at a cloud of data points and fit a trendline to it, and call it a pattern and then make predictions about the future?
I'm saying how well the curve fits doesn't imply it's predictive ability, see overfitting.

>It's just looking at what happens when you have a massive giga rally, and what usually happens after that in stock market history. Pretty basic stuff.
Yeah, I just don't think that's good analysis as it immediately massive reduces the number of data points you can even consider.

Basically this just isn't how I'd go about forecasting 1YR returns or macro stuff if that's what I was trying to do, the approach seems way too prone to picking up spurious correlations. I like the data driven posting though it's just not how I'd do it personally but more power to you.

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THIS SHIT BE CRAZY YO
WE FINNA GET BIGGER WEED
I FEEL IT

>>62119405
the market is up because Iran is impotent and on the verge of capitulation

>>62119176
yeah duh to rebuild what they lost not for Iran, ya dingus

>>62119384
>Wait a second, are you saying you literally cannot look at a cloud of data points and fit a trendline to it, and call it a pattern and then make predictions about the future?
And yes you should not do this to be clear. You need sufficient reason to believe the correlation has predictive power, otherwise you'll be trying to make predictions off of spurious correlations.

>>62119239
and I think some people aren't getting this, but the point is that if you see a huge giga mega retard pump, that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to go down or that you "missed it". The data clearly shows, with proof by contradiction, of all the times the market didn't die after a giga pump, and actually it went up a lot if you bought AFTER the super rally.

In other words, this is cope for the people who didn't buy before the giga rally. You didn't miss anything, and in fact, giga rallies like this are usually very bullish over 12 months. We're all gonna make it.

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You can have ten million dollar portfolio from all this gay talmudic market rigging, and it literally won't matter because all of the store shelves will be empty. We import all of our products from Asia, and they're completely without fuel to either produce the goods we need to live OR ship them to the United States. So take comfort in those large numbers on your computer screen, because you sure as shit won't find any comfort during the supply shortages.

>>62119409
That's just not true, they just need to send 10 drones a day and block the strait

>>62119375
I have the opposite problem where I end up being right but I lacked conviction and held back from going all in.

>>62119416
Implying I won't move to Asia. Fuck the US

>>62119414
>with proof by contradiction
lmao stop it you pseud you have to be trolling here

>>62119348
what shortage? Governments released emergency reserves and let sanctioned countries sell. Obviously the strait being open is better but for short term it’s not a big deal. You’re only right if the war doesnt end very soon

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>didn't make generational wealth with BIRD today

>>62119416
>We import all of our products from Asia, and they're completely without fuel to either produce the goods we need to live OR ship them to the United States. So take comfort in those large numbers on your computer screen, because you sure as shit won't find any comfort during the supply shortages.
america gets 90% of its products from its own production, and canada and mexico.
asia is a small percentage of the stuff we use.

>>62119375
they need to go one step further
>why did i think that way?
ie. why was my model of reality wrong? (the media they consume misrepresented reality to them)

>>62119417
and how many are they sending?
the market is forward looking and expects Iran to soon capitulate as they have already seemingly ran out of fight and will soon run out money to pay their soldiers

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>>62119417

>>62119428
>source: I made it up
Just like how we import all of our steel from """"""""""Canada""""""""""", right?

>>62119435
I thought the CLF tranny made it all

>>62119433
yeah nice headline but China is also on Iran's side supporting their sovereignty over the strait

>>62119435
this isn't news my friend
america plus canada plus mexico is basically all we need. that's NAFTA, or as it is known now, USMCA

Rank Country % of U.S. Market Supply Primary Goods
1 United States 65.6% Food, energy, aerospace, machinery
2 Mexico ~5.3% Vehicles, auto parts, appliances
3 Canada ~3.8% Crude oil, lumber, automotive
4 China ~3.1% Electronics, furniture, textiles
5 Taiwan ~2.1% Semiconductors, computer parts
6 Vietnam ~2.0% Footwear, apparel, furniture
7 Germany ~1.6% Medical supplies, industrial machines
8 Japan ~1.5% Cars, high-end electronics
9 Ireland ~1.4% Pharmaceuticals, chemicals
10 South Korea ~1.3% Steel, vehicles, semiconductors

>Just like how we import all of our steel from """"""""""Canada""""""""""", right?
it's a good point, and we need to remove china from our supply chains
but in terms of "everything we have comes from asia" is simply not true.

Who else got bobo blasted when the cease fire dropped? me? I lost about 15k and I cut that shit the next day lmao. Anyways, the whole long side has worked out great and everything's okay now.

>>62119430
it doesnt really matter what theyre sending, what matters is what they can send
>will soon run out money to pay their soldiers
israel hasnt even beaten hamas in gaza. iran is a 90 million population country being run by 1 million MUSLIM BELIEVERS who have guns

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>peace deal in two more weeks, goy!

>>62119453
ngl kinda has me in the mood for some hearts of iron

>>62119453
so what do they just kick the can down the road until after midterms? Is Bibi cool with that?

>>62119455
2 or 3?

>>62119433
China is sending iran weapons and gave them satellite targeting of bases in the gulf. They love this shit because every missile we give the gulf is a missile we don't have for China taking Taiwan

>>62119460
4 cause im a retarded faggot

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>>62119456
All of the current volunteer forces will die in the drone meatgrinder until this November, followed by a draft to send all the non-volunteer goyim to die in the drone meatgrinder after November. You get to deal in the real world in Iran while the Fed prints infinite money to pump the (((oligarchs'))) portfolios.

>>62119467
sounds like a plan boss

I mean why is Asia up 2%? They're running out of oil and it's up. This shit is actually insane

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>>62119237
oh no no no now the smug faggot that tried to time the market comes crying while boglehead chads kick back lmao

>>62119461
>China taking over Taiwan
Will be peaceful.

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>>62119470
you would know better than the locals

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>>62119414
>>62119421
here's the actual dates so you both can check the charts if you really wanted to
when the event is so rare I can point to any one of the handful of charts there and say "this time is like that". could be like May 1992 or 1990, could be like 2009, could be something different from all of them. problem is this time isn't like that time unless it really is, which isn't 100% clear until it's all over. I suppose whittling down the list to draw connections is helpful but I didn't see >>62119414 do that yet

>>62119456
>do they just kick the can down the road
I member being 11 on dial up and metal hobby casting groups and the older guys talking about bush and them just kicking the can down the road with the national debt. It went over my head a bit as an 11 year old but one or two of them were kind enough to point the problem out. I found it kind of interesting wondering about if that process can be repeated indefinitely.

That was 30 years ago.

Ze can VIL be kicked. For now.

I think it's still got a few decades of kicking available.

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Silver bros ...

>>62119473
I saw a Spirit plane boarding in Philly that was 100% black

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screaming bottom signal

>>62119441
no they arent retard Iran never had sovereignty over the strait only half of it

>>62119452
how many times have true muslim believers turned on their rulers after not being paid faggot open a history book

>>62119461
china is watching their weapons systems getting BTFOd by Big American Innovation

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>>62119473
holy fucking based. keep tripling oil prices.

>>62119482
Eliminating that IS a good thing

>>62119476
>when the event is so rare I can point to any one of the handful of charts there and say "this time is like that"
That's been my point, you can't just filter down like that, look at the ten remaining data points, and really draw meaningful conclusions from it. This rally was very unusual given we're in a Trump clown regime driven by Truth social posts and short coverage, so I don't think it meaningfully relates to anything else especially when the volume isn't there.

I just personally don't see much value in searching for price action correlations on an outlier event like this, everything is bound to be spurious and if anything it'll embolden bad decisions.

>>62119486
>no they arent retard Iran never had sovereignty over the strait only half of it
Yes they are and yeah I meant their half obviously...

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>>62119486
>Big American Innovation
Is that what we're calling blowing up all of our bases and aircraft? The shill propaganda doesn't work as well when we're losing, does it?

>>62119474
Hopefully yeah. But it happens in 20 years after China stops being run by xi xing pooh bear

>>62119416
Hahah I love coping bears, market is gonna keep rising

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>>62119485
>disability slur
those lame retards
really dumb! and... and... PARAPALEGIC!
hah. gottem

>>62119486
It doesn't matter if we have higher quality bullshit if China can outproduce us 10 to 1

>>62119440
what ever happened to him? Did he become a millionaire? Did he 41% himself?

>>62119470
>Asia up 2
the yen and won are both collapsing
they are forced to partake into the stock market due to their local inflation
no worries I'm here to provide free education

>>62119499
>10 to 1
You forgot a zero.

>>62119492
Robert McNamara - Project 100,000. Put those retards to work again.

where's the guy who said he lost his house any updates from him

>>62119508
good news: he found his house

>>62119485
>screaming bottom signal
also, what is this a bottom signal for?

>>62119492
>Is that what we're calling blowing up all of our bases and aircraft?
chang adveltised theil anti ail-claft radawl system as being able to shoot down american stealth jets
it didn't do so good.
and we were flying a swarm of F35s over tehran for more than a month. same for venezuela.
looks like chang was lying about their velly implessive systems

lmao he bought puts at the close

tsmc earnings in 2 hours
god bless semis

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>futures

>>62119486
>how many times have true muslim believers turned on their rulers after not being paid faggot open a history book
Please purge my ignorance. How many times have Muslims turned against their rulers and won when their overlords have guns and they dont

>>62119493
Even with him, the peaceful resolution is on the table as was proved by the visit of the Kuomintang leader.

>>62119492
it wouldn't if we were losing but uhh remind me who's leaders and major source of income are fucking dead?

>>62119499
china is and alway has been a paper tiger. You don't spend 5000 years getting raped by horse niggers because you're strong

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>>62119512
where was it

>>62119518
the niggers with the guns are the ones who get mad about their rulers dumb dumb. Thats why saudi arabia deliberately has such a shitty military

>>62119523
>china is and alway has been a paper tiger
Lol

>>62119516
can't stand earnings
>pre pump
>post dump
>every time
>no matter what

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>>62119513
We've already lost two F-35s, to say nothing of all the other aircraft that we lost. They're still being forced to use standoff munitions because of Iran's anti-air. Just wait until we put boots on the ground. It will be like that failed uranium snatch and grab op, but with tens of thousands of dead soldiers who lived a bit too hard in the real world. Their deaths and a US military defeat will send the SPY to 1000 (the cost of one Big Mac)

Great now the market will crab in the same spot for 3 months before it goes down $5

>>62119529
You should honestly stop posting

>>62119523
HEY LOOK EVERYONE ITS PETE HEGSETH

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been looking for a picture in particular for over an hour now but i can't find it.

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>>62119523
>b-but we killed more of the Viet Cong!
Have a good, long read you FUCKING RETARD:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy

>>62119531
I have a feeling it will be like nvidia earnings
pumps a bunch into back to current levels

>>62119538
I've been looking for a picture for a few years, it was an intergalactic wizard alien frog kinda thing. The art style was completely different than most pepes, wasn't really a Pepe at all just an intergalactic alien wizard frog. if anyone has it please post it

>>62119539
We won because now Vietnam makes our clothes and their immigrants put nails on obese americans all day.

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>>62119539
mcnamara was a patriot and did nothing wrong.

>>62118948
God I hate AI trying to pass as real. TrAInny slob.

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>>62119546
Yeah, except losing the Vietnam War.

lotta chank shills working the board today. Trust me China doesn't want / can't handle the responsibility of exorbitant privilege

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>>62119552
Cool opinion, Mr. 1PBTID Eglin bot. Too bad it's FUCKING RETARDED.