Thread #65062815
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In WW1 we started with fixed defenses, countered by artillery spam, then we moved to the elastic defense to counter atillery spam.
Subsequently in WW2 we developed the mobile defense, where a mobile armored reserve was held nearby waiting to counterattack the enemy.
Since then there hasn't been any real changes, Cold War era doctrine all the way up to the start of the Ukrainian invasion of 2022 have largely stayed the same, just more effective, an elastic defensive line and a mobile reserve was the main tactic used thoroughly most of this conflict even.
But now there's the claim that a new method has been developed, the availability of highly attritable drones have enabled the creation of a transparent killzone where everything is seen and hit with precise and deadly strikes.
The question is, can we say that these new developments mark the beginning of a real shift in doctrine and what does that mean for future procurement of equipment and development of new training methods?
Is the mobile reserve dead? Do we still need an outpost line?
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This is just no man's land, isn't it?
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>>65062815
These are the perfect answer to drones.
Flak towers set up with M2 sentry turrets, radars, microwave systems or lasers, maybe a few containerized VAMPIRE systems.
As long as you can keep them fed, nothing will damage the actual tower.
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>>65062858
I don't doubt that they could be effective, but that's just another defensive asset, we don't have a problem with defense now, it's the opposite, also they might warrant the use of something heavier like JDAMs equivalents or even a ballistic missile, so I'm not sure if they really that useful in this context.
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>>65062858
>nothing will damage the actual tower
I bet a FAB-9000 would do something. Highly mobile, attritable platforms are the way.
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>>65062837
Infiltration tactics were developed to deal with the problem of firepower to cross the so called no man's land, the main thing is that you could infiltrate a force with enough combat power to accomplish their objectives, even up to very recently that was possible, the claim is that he new doctrine allows for 24/7 omnipresent survaillance and precise strikes, the delay between detection and strike is short and getting shorter, so you can't hope to infiltrate and concentrante any meaningful force beyond that line.
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>>65062888
checked
and yeah, that's on me for not finishing reading through the wiki article lol
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>>65062815
Not the start but rather it further sements a change that's been hard to swallow since the early 00s, the transparent battlefield. Satelites and surveilence drones already made it so you know what's happening everywhere, the influx of cheap quadrocopters just made it so you get that information quicker.
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>>65062858
Need to put in a HIMAD system to contest aerial bomb attacks against the tower.
>>65062884
CEP +/- a city block so several would be needed to even hit the thing in the first place. It'd suck to deal with aviation bombs but that's what the SAM part of it would be for.
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>>65062815
>Ukranians and Russians are retards
>Thus everyone is retarded
Friendly reminder that the Ukranian summer offensive failed because they ignored the explicit advise of NATO planners by dividing their forces sending half to Bahkmut and dividing the remaining half into two axis of attack thus depriving their forces of the mass required to punch through the Russian defensive belt.
These people are idiots, but they are winning because the Russians are fucking retarded
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>>65063145
Every single conflict we're seeing has drones being a seismic game changer. In the question of predictive truths, we can either believe in what is explicitly in front of us or in the equivalent of 2-more-weeks-coulda-woulda-shoulda theoreticians like you.
When the shiite shits were slinging drones at us we didn't have some non-retarded wunderwaffle on hand to bat away the highly attritable drones. We had to tank them on the face, abandon bases, or flee out of range on our ships. So we finally have practical field examples of what happens when not just a first rate country but THE first rate military in all of human history encounters this new variable and we get slapped around same as everyone else.
It might change in the future if we speed run drones but spare us with the tedious "Hurp durp russians and ukrainians are just retards herp derp we can still fight like it's 2012". It is proven now that we cannot.
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>>65063163
Iranian drones were not, in fact, game changers. We lost less men than when we invaded Grenada. We lost less aircraft than when we liberated Kuwait. We also flew 12,000 sorties.
You're retarded. Go away.
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>>65062815
I don't think near as much has changed as we think. After WW2, everyone was so quick to proclaim that WW1 style trench warfare dead and then only 5 years after we found ourselves in Korea with static lines again. About 30 years after that we had the Iran Iraq war once again with years of stalemate and the long trench lines. Now Ukraine.
Trench warfare and static lines is just what happens when momentum is lost and armies have the time to really dig in. Ukraine and Russia were cold war for years before 2022 and spent that time building defenses. After the run on Kyiv failed, it is no wonder stalemate happened so quickly in the east of Ukraine and before the drone spam started in earnest too.
The Ukraine may have showcased a bunch of new weapons but I don't think it fundamentally changed how it is fought. If there was not a single drone was used in this war, I'd still expect mostly static lines.
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>>65063163
>So we finally have practical field examples of what happens when not just a first rate country but THE first rate military in all of human history encounters this new variable and we get slapped around same as everyone else.
That wasn't the problem with Iran, the problem with Iran is that this wasn't a "war" it was an American bombing campaign and America is not used to bombing campaigns where the enemy can bomb back to such a degree. We got a taste of it in Gulf War 1 with Iraq and its Scuds, but now the capabilities available of the third world has gotten cheaper and more accurate since then.
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_strikes_on_Saudi_Arabia
The real issue is that America tried to dip its toe in the water but weren't willing to dive right in. They didn't call up a half million troops and roll over Iran in a proper invasion like Iraq. They hoped that if they just deleted enough things Iran would say uncle.
It's like with North Vietnam. They were unwilling to conquer the country in fear of pissing off China so they just bombed it. North Vietnam was undeterred and just kept raising new units and sending them south. Iran is not connected to anything so they did the same thing with missiles and lawnmower drones.
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>>65063168
And all you accomplished was...
*checks notes*
reopened a strait that was already opened, but now Iran will make billions every year by charging a toll
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>>65062858
Russia has already used ICBMs without nukes in Ukraine, you can pack that tower with all the AA you want but it would be still get obliterated by hypersonics because its static
It could also be fucked by rocket assisted artillery if its relatively near the front
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>>65062815
I guess i just dont see much of a change in the grand scheme aside from shorter kill chains which are available to both sides.
It still results in troops probing for weaker areas in the grey zone, areas it is easiest to infiltrate through. You will still need reserves to follow up on any sectors that become penetrated.
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>>65062858
Germans needed hundreds of literal slaves to build these how the fuck do you think a meaningful number of these would be built inexpensively?
Shit even in WW2 these things were not the majority of AA batteries. I've been to Augarten, there's like 4 towers to cover all of Vienna. I bet they did almost fucking nothing against hundreds of allied bombers massing overhead.
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>>65063145
And that fuck up can't be partly bless on politicians in Ukraine and the west demanding fast results that look good in the news whole military said that they do not have the manpower out equipment for it.
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>>65063145
This is a completely incorrect characterization of events btw, unless you're implying they should have rotated defending units out of Bakhmut and let it fall, which is an opinion so retarded that not even the vatnigs push it
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>>65063181
There are no trenches in Ukraine anymore
Trench warfare is obsolete. The frontline is now 15km wide gray zone with drone operators in hidden dugouts monitoring the entire front
They used to need 100 men to guard 1km of frontline. Now only 9 men are sufficient to do the same job
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>>65063145
>>65065017
a NATO army with all its supporting assets could do it, UA didn't have F-16s, ATACMS, not enough fire support assets to generate the combat power needed, it would have been a major disaster, whole units would be trapped behind enemy lines and destroyed.
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>>65062815
The doctrine for non-retards is
>impassable buffer zone
>obliterate enemy economy
then you incentivize the local population to remove their regime and if they don't they just stay poor forever. Still a victory
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>>65065904
>picerel
unironically: why haven't we seen large scale smoke usage
i saw german Rocket arty footage from ww2 and a couple of them saturated what looked liked a 5km long area with smoke
or am i overestimating the effect smoke has one drone cameras?
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>>65062815
Cappy Army talking about emerging tactics in Ukraine around 18:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCfzwH4vZwY
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>>65065977
>seems like it could work if used en mass
>if used en mass
This part is absolutely important. I remember reading an interview with a drone operator in early 2023 or during the summer of 2022 in which he saw the russians using a few smoke generators close to a river which spiked his interest and flew over the area in which he saw russians laying pontoon bridges. The area was then hit by artillery he guided and the river crossing failed. The ironic part is that if the russians had not used a small number of smoke generators then there is a good chance the river crossing would have worked since the drone operator was not looking at that area at all since he was covering a very large sector by himself. It could have worked if the russians used smoke generators along the whole frontline, even in areas in which no river crossing is happening but they chose the worst option which is using a few smoke generators at the river crossing point only which drew attention.
>>65065981
B-but drones are going to replace everything. It cant just be that modern warfare is still combined arms warfare only with drones added to the mix!?
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>>65066038
>The ironic part is that if the russians had not used a small number of smoke generators then there is a good chance the river crossing would have worked since the drone operator was not looking at that area at all since he was covering a very large sector by himself. It could have worked if the russians used smoke generators along the whole frontline, even in areas in which no river crossing is happening but they chose the worst option which is using a few smoke generators at the river crossing point only which drew attention.
This is why officers should study mitary history, feints and demonstrations are basic requirement for that kind of operation.
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>>65064990
>This is a completely incorrect characterization of events btw
Its exactly what happened as reported by NYT.
>>65065904
No, if they had mass they could have punched through. Thats the whole point of mass. Its a blunt instrument.
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>>65066071
>No, if they had mass they could have punched through
yes
IF
but they didn't. because russia has the numerical advantage since late 2022
plus they still would have needed to blow up the crimean bridge at the same time
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>>65066071
>No, if they had mass they could have punched through. Thats the whole point of mass. Its a blunt instrument.
If the Russians which had far more resources available to them didn't manage to achieve major breakthroughs through mass, then the Ukrainians wouldn't be likely to succeed either, it's easy for military planners that have never experienced real modern battlefield conditions to come up with those Cold Era plans, they aren't the ones that will deal with the consequences of failure.
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>>65066080
>but they didn't.
Yes, because they ignored NATO planners advice and sent half their force to Bahkmut and then divided the remaining half along two axis of attack.
Holy shit, circular conversation much?
>>65066085
NATO planners had effectively run the war up until that point. Get your head out your fucking ass.
>but the Russians are shit
Yes.
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>>65062888
>Infiltration tactics were developed to deal with the problem of firepower to cross the so called no man's land
guess what tactics the Russians developed last year to counter the Ukrainian drones
>>65062815
no, it's still WW1 all the way in Ukraine, except for the EW war which you haven't discussed
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>>65064876
Holy reading comprehension, we are not talking about their supposed hypersonic missiles we are talking about ICBMs those are hypersonic and virtually impossible to intercept
>>65064927
They hit dead center of infraestructure when they used them in western Ukraine
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>>65066038
>This part is absolutely important. I remember reading an interview with a drone operator in early 2023 or during the summer of 2022 in which he saw the russians using a few smoke generators close to a river which spiked his interest and flew over the area in which he saw russians laying pontoon bridges. The area was then hit by artillery he guided and the river crossing failed. The ironic part is that if the russians had not used a small number of smoke generators then there is a good chance the river crossing would have worked since the drone operator was not looking at that area at all since he was covering a very large sector by himself. It could have worked if the russians used smoke generators along the whole frontline, even in areas in which no river crossing is happening but they chose the worst option which is using a few smoke generators at the river crossing point only which drew attention.
This >>65065974
seems like it would be far more effective than this>>65065971
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>>65063145
how is ukraine winning exactly? the current frontline is much closer to what russia wants (russian control of crimea and the donetsk, lugansk, kherson and zaporozhia regions) than to what ukraine wants (1991 borders)
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>>65063206
Ayatollah and his wife and children were killed lmao
Post American carriers sunk
Post American SAM teams getting obliterated
Post American cities getting clogged with ash as countless babies and elderly within suffocate to death.
Get the fuck off my board, /pol/-skins
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>>65069065
>the current frontline is much closer to what russia wants
(the complete annexation of Ukraine, the entire population raped and gulaged, a shared border with collaborationist states in hungary and transnistria)
No, I'd say Ukraine is winning.
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>>65070210
>Be ready to post inevitable American concessions from the peace talks
>he says as nothing came out of the recent peace talks
Not that Anon but this just aged like milk lol!
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>>65070202
>Ukies are gaining ground
not overall
>putin is no closer to ending the war in a way he is satisfied with than he was 4 years ago
russia successfully created a land bridge to crimea, cut ukraine off from the sea of azov, and then integrated its new territories for 4 years straight.
>inb4 russia is winning too slowly
slowly gaining ground at a high cost (what Russia is doing) is still better than slowly losing ground at a high cost (what Ukraine is doing)
>>65070208
>when you lose 20% of your land, you win
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>>65063206
forget the troops, the bombing itself was half-assed and weak.
for iraq they had 6 carrier groups and 100,000 sorties in a month, now they had 1 carrier group and 11,000. that's weak. israel, which is barely the size of NYC, outbombed the US in sorties. and did FAR more damage as far as the reports go.
imho the generals who planned this intervention should go to jail or be outright shot.
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>>65070327
the original stated goal was to "demilitarise and denazify Ukraine"
Four years in the Ukie DIB is VASTLY larger and more effective than it was before the war and azov has been directly integrated into the ukie armed forces which continue to fight and win in the field.
In just the last few weeks alone they've liberated ground that took the Russians months, sometimes years of continuous, ludicrously casualty intensive assaults to seize at just a tiny fraction of the cost. They've gone from having almost no deep strike capacity whatsoever to waging an ever escalating strategic bombing campaign thousands of kilometres into the Russian heartland and are now actually outproducing the Russians in several key systems, notably one way attack drones
Putins stated objectives from the start of the war have failed decisively.
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The territory Russia has gained in Ukraine since the Izyum/Kherson offensives (so Autumn 2022) have not really altered the strategic situation. Ukraine has been pushed back, but not routed or broken. And it's been expensive in terms of manpower. Ukraine still has a large problem of Russia dug in on a large swathe of their land, but places like Bucha makes it clear this is a war of survival for Ukraine, and keeping the Russians to localised advances and now beginning to nibble back some land here and there, while also growing more confident in strategic drone attacks like at St Petersburg, is respectable for being the smaller defenders. Whether they can keep it up until Xeno's Russian Military Collapse arrives, nobody knows for certain, but I think even if Russia eventually takes all of Ukraine it can only be described as pyrrhic.
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>>65070416
I have no clue, there's a reason I referenced Zeno (and forgot the right spelling). Objectively the soviet era stockpiles have dwindled, and we hear reports of companies and universities being given quotas for army contracts, and these are signs of barrel scraping. But I think the political will to continue the war and clamp down on home front dissent is too subjective to quantify or give an accurate timetable. It will always last longer than you think, until one day it doesn't. The only thing that would make me consider a timeline would be Putin's loss of power, which again feels like it won't hapoen, until one day it does.
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>>65070416
that's a good question
while its impossible to give an exact time frame, if previous collapses are anything to go for it will happen very slowly at first, then very suddenly all at once
If Putin doesn't cut his losses and pull out of Ukraine it will happen eventually, and it may still happen even if he does
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>>65070364
Yeah yeah, we heard the same thing back in the 2023 summer offensive. I've learned my lesson. Complete silence after the first few days of gains that lasted for months for "operational secrecy", and it then it turned out they stalled the exact moment they stopped talking.
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>>65070385
>Ukraine has been pushed back, but not routed or broken.
so they haven't lost yet but are losing?
>but places like Bucha makes it clear this is a war of survival for Ukraine
funny how Bucha-like massacres didn't happen in places where Azov didn't "liquidate collaborators"
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>blogpost
The new doctrine has to go 'all in' on mobility, and even stretch logistics to create movement. The smallest unit allowable would be something like AFV's without any dismounts. I would just give up on foot infantry completely and have everyone inside of armor.
>but whatabout'
Tanks and AFV's in motion are faster than drones, and also less labor intensive.
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>>65070531
OK but why are the russians so silent?
they were screaming from the rooftops when the took out that one abrams back in '23 yet we've heard nothing from them for a month now
no details from the ukies either of course, but we do occasionally get updates like Kupyansk being liberated and the Russians driven from the west bank of the Oskil
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Drones is just micro air power, and the solution to air power is air superiority. Just have enough density to complete BAI and deny enemy air ops.
>>65062815
>Is the mobile reserve dead? Do we still need an outpost line?
outpost line is sensors and mines. mobile reserves is drones, artillery and counterattacking force.
>>65073012
>Tanks and AFV's in motion are faster than drones, and also less labor intensive.
Reflect poor automation and networking of drone ops. Once developed, drone carrier can sustain high sortie rates while in motion and offensive momentum can be sustained.
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>>65072541
>still losing
As I said it's a war of survival. The strategic goal is to preserve the state and its people. The chosen strategy, somewhat necessary given they can't overpower Russia on the battlefield, is one of attrition. Make each Russian advance painful and expensive. In that framework the control of territory which doesn't enable breakthroughs, flankings or supply isolation doesn't contribute to the final score. It's really a battle of will, can Putin impose his will on his own society to keep enduring meatgrinder advances long enough to get Ukrainian will to break, or can Ukraine inflict enough damage to get Russians to give in or mass revolt? Nobody knows for sure, but I think such heavy handed censorship of the internet is being attempted from a counterintuititve feeling of vulnerability rather than strength. Get ahead of bad information before the public learns of it. There is a lot of tension within Russia, and we may be nearing the time where a random trigger can topple it. But we aren't there yet, so the contest of will continues.
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>>65073228
>The strategic goal is to preserve the state and its people.
you should let Zelensky know. he still thinks that Ukraine's goal is to retake Crimea and force Russia to pay reparations. clearly you know better than he does
>>65073074
literally just look it up. or if you were here around April 1 2022, you'd remember how boasts of liquidating Russian collaborators in Bucha predated any reports of a massacre by about a day
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>can Putin impose his will on his own society to keep enduring meatgrinder advances long enough to get Ukrainian will to break,
the front doesn't affect civilians (except when some poor ukrianian gets snatched off the street by the TCC)
really the only thing that affects civilians is the bombing attacks on civilian infrastructure, e.g. when ukraine launches a drone wave at russian oil refineries.
this is a battle that russia will win, because russia has more drone production capacity, because russia doesn't need to hit as much as Ukraine (ukraine has fewer targets than russia) and because russian drones don't need to fly nearly as far due to ukraine being closer to the front.
>>65075099
skill issue
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>>65070264
>Anon is surprised that a nation next door to Iran can manage more sorties than the one sailing around the world
Yeah man when we did Iraq we had far more national and international support. Welcome to side chase expeditions
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>>65062837
Why didn't they just dig a trench across No Man's Land like in Over the Top?
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>>65075147
>>65075188
Aged miserably.
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>>65062858
Hear me out guys.
>Take shipping container
>Reinforce with concrete
>Build stairs sideways inside
>Cut holes in top to shoot from
>Use fuck huge crane
>Tilt it onto the top of a D12
>Obligatory thanks but me need no help
>Seige towers are reborn
>Moving (slowly but also accurate for aesthetic), drone proof, improved firing positions for troops
You’re welcome
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>>65062858
>radars, microwave systems
We're going to see microwave systems deployed that will overwhelm drones. None of this gay ukraine-russia war shit is going to last. It's important that western militaries adapt and bring detectors and dedicated SIGINT materiel with them but I refuse to believe the way these corrupt slavs are fighting is the future.
>>65062888
>the claim is that he new doctrine allows for 24/7 omnipresent survaillance and precise strikes
Which is bullshit, because we've seen Russian infiltrators time and time again and Ukrainians doing the same thing and even sending UGV's to overwhelm poorly defended or dug-in russian positions.
>>65063145
>thus depriving their forces of the mass required to punch through the Russian defensive belt
Probably only part of the problem, everybody pretends like the Ukrainians are the most battle hardened troops to currently exist but I really don't see how a military which got a massive influx of equipment and funds from 2022 going forward (and took a lot of losses as well) is somehow best trained on new doctrine and all the equipment they received.
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>>65073104
>Implying nobody is going to fire up the jammers or even better SIGINT and vaporize anyone emitting to control their one-way drone-munitions
There is such a large portion of drone warfare which is NEVER discussed in any detail or barely any details get published. Just people going "but muh fibre optics with 20km range". Everybody and their mother were already aware that radios could completely broadcast your position and that any first world military (US) could absolutely dunk on you. The fact we're seeing nothing about this signals cat-and-mouse game in Ukraine probably means it's a gigantic component in all of this because at its core its what allows these type of weapons to proliferate so heavily.
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>>65062815
>ww2 to 21st century was just the same retard
>where everything is seen and hit with precise and deadly strikes
So like what we have had for decades with artillery, spotters, PGMs and UAVs?
Nigger it's artillery with a camera made in someone's garage
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>>65076346
Drones on the front line don't come in waves, but dribble. Are you going to have a unit blasting the skies around the clock? Wouldn't that expose your anti drone microwave guns TM to anti radiation/radiation seeking weaponry?
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>>65062888
>>65066373
idk if its really the same thing. they really didnt have much of an option back in ww1. nowadays its more like the russians, the chinese, north koreans don't really want to admit that their military sucks and they're doing human waves again so they will call it "infiltration tactics" or "deep battle" because muh face and so on
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Long rage FPV drones are hitting enemy logistics and reinforces in the enemy rear area, if you give some thought to this, they are more effect than air interdiction and long range missile strikes like HIMARS, since they don't require enemy concentration or high value targets and can hit dispersed elements cost effectively, impacting enemy logistcs over a more extended period of time.
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War is won in the air. Ukraine could obviously never hope to contest the Russian air force but the Russians in turn proved too incompetent to be capable of dealing with its own air defences that Ukraine inherited which led to the slog you see on the ground.
Exact same thing happened in WWII. Every Soviet counterattack in 41 and 42 was stopped in large part thanks to the Germans being able to call on neverending waves of massed bombers which Siberian yokels with 2 flying hours were powerless to stop as they got swatted out of the sky. Then the VVS got its shit together around 1943 and the rest is history.
When the USAAF was unleashed, the whole of Germany became a battlefield without a single Allied soldier stepping foot on its territory.
Now, America could flatten any country in the world by parking a single aircraft carrier off its coast. The only thing that can hope to save you is retarded zogged politicians ordering their obedient golems to pointlessly march around the desert while tribesmen take shots at them with rusty Kalashnikovs until American endurance is exhausted. Sure, drones might give us funny videos of mutts getting chased around by flying grenades but all they'll remain is a poor man's F-35. China can only hope to beat America in the field if they can manage to nullify the USAAF but remember that the Roman state fell apart before its legions did.
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>>65063286
>The IDF says we should keep bombing Iran
I bet they do, lol. I would just like to point out that there no way this anon would take an Israeli intelligence report at face value under any other circumstances than when he was trying to make a point about Hormuz that’s not even relevant anymore.
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>>65076644
>idk if its really the same thing
it is, because neither side can attain the air superiority which has been the cornerstone of large scale combat operations since September 1939
(or even 1937 if you consider the SCW, where the Germans were regularly doing combined-arms assaults)
>their military sucks and they're doing human waves again
it was effective enough for the Russians, last year
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>>65080722
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>When and where?