>>65080538
ching chong chang

>>65080538
>Why is it working so well
Because the US top brass are implementing the age old strategy called "making this shit up as we go".
>why couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?
Because the US had just gotten out of a very unpopular war in Vietnam, and the public was incredibly war fatigued (very similar to now.)

As much as I'd love to see Iran and the US work together to block the strait, the US blockade is much further out. This is a problem.

>>65080538
> Why is it working so well
How does it achieve what war aims?
How does it impact all of our other diplomatic and economic goals?
>why couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?
Because our leaders felt that the impact on our other diplomatic and economic goals and activities wasn’t worth the effect it would have had on our enemies.

>>65080561
Well markets are back up. So it either fake and gay or it working.

>>65080538
>hy couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?
Because the relatively new petro dollar was held hostage by the Middle East as we slowly phased down our gas production from the 50s, which lead to full dependency on the Arab states. These Arab states were more angry and unified at the time due to their losses on the Six Day War. As a result the US blockading the strait would have been unfeasible AND the Soviet Navy (still mostly functional) would have been called in to help open the lanes potentially leading to a stand up conflict. In the modern age we have removed our oil dependency off of the ME (this happened in the early 00s before you were probably alive) and there is no naval force of comparable abilities to remove us from the blockade.

>>65080555
FAKE NEWS. REPORTED.

>>65080538
>how
It can't. Period.
>why so effective
Because the US has completely separated itself from ME oil, and is a net exporter of oil, and people buy oil in USD. If anything higher oil prices is a net benefit to the US, as it hurts Europe, Asia, and the Chinese far more.

>>65080538
would've been much easier under carter
the navy was gigantic back then

>>65080606
Why didn’t carter do it though?

>>65080614
Theres a good reason why he's one of the shittiest presidents in the last 50ish years.

>>65080605
>>how
>If anything higher oil prices is a net benefit to the US, as it hurts Europe, Asia
They'll go back to Russian oil. BTW Russians now want Yuan instead of Roubles for their oil so the Chinese directly benefit from the situation.
>and the Chinese far more
China can always buy oil from Russia, as a matter of fact China buys oil from Venezuela and Iran to distance itself from Russia.

>>65080561
>How does it achieve what war aims?
Well, Iran wants to control the strait. Now it can't. It is basically a cockblock on Iran's one and only leverage in all this.

>>65080620
>buy from Russia
>looks at their refineries and oil pipelines
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>65080614
war was le bad at the time

>>65080555
>>65080538
Where the coal toll and troll toll?

>>65080619
>Gives away the Panama Canal for no reason at all
Imagine doing this

>>65080538
What about the troll toll?

>>65080632
They have many refineries in the middle of Siberia.

>>65080574
>we slowly phased down our gas production from the 50s, which lead to full dependency on the Arab states.
The US just ran out of gas. New technology enabled fracking but even here all fields except the Permian are either stagnant or declining so the Iran war had to happen now before the shale oil starts declining.

>>65080538
They don't. Iran's gamble was that they could convince the U.S. to stop the war by hurting other countries and choking the global supply of oil.

This has backfired pretty spectacularly. All of its Gulf neighbors hate Iran now, Trump could care less about what other countries think, and the U.S. is making a killing by gobbling up marketshare from ME exporters.

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>>65080634
>>65080644
>>65080538
If you could please consult the charts:

>>65080657
The US will be fine for at least a century and a half on US oil alone, and now with oil from the south it should be fine. we'll be in the nuclear age before we're out of oil

>>65080574
>>65080657
We're now importing oil from Canada AND Venezuela. We effectively just became the biggest oil distributor in the world.
There's a better move I've heard Trump did recently and that was to elevate the Philippines to a close ally status (something along the lines of partner). The reason for this is specifically the Strait of Mallacha. That strait is an extremely active shipping lane for Chinese bound oil (from Iran).
Essentially, Trump has blockaded Chinese oil from Iran in two locations. President Trump is visiting Beijing next month. This means he's going to be walking into the meeting with the ability to shut down all of China's major transportation capabilities. He's got them by the balls, and that's going to make negotiating very easy.

Go ahead, look it up.

>>65080708
>we
>biggest global distributor
It's always hilarious watching clownshows talk shit about commodities markets when they have absolutely no fucking idea how they work.

>>65080565
the AI casino responding positively isnt really much of a good sign for the war.
Covid broke any rationality the stock market had left. It is completely divorced from most everyday realities.

>>65080538
Tell me why a joint US/Iranian toll wouldn't work as a solution? Both parties are incentivized to keep the straight open, the US gets to moniter shipping traffic and has an excuse to maintain military presence there, Iran gets money to rebuild their totally not nuke devslopment facilities, and China has to pay the US for every barrel of oil it buys.

>>65080723
>the market doesn't mean anything because I've decided it's not real

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>>65080708
>Strait of """Mallacha"""
>The Phillippines
The Strait of Mallaca is between Malaysia and Indonesia you turbo retard

>>65080538
>>65080546
Ask not for Hu the bell tolls; it tolls for Li.

>>65080691
>no lol toll
Fake news

>>65080894
>mestyped once latter
>autistist setthes

>>65080657
Technically speaking we actually froze the tapping of our reserves and THEN new tech made it feasible to unlock more of our stores at a cheaper rate. We had plenty of sources, but the Saudis had the best wells and so did the Iranians for the cheapest cost. Additionally when we moved to the petrodollar we had to deprecate huge swaths of sectors to make it work (world reserve currencies do not play nice with production economies, it makes your tender too costly to export goods)

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>>65080708
Literally everyone has known that the US is working to isolate Chinese and enemy oil. VZ was a major operation for it, but it's also a major economic setup for the USA as we built the refineries for their crude and now can use them again. Additionally if you have been following the news, the crude from VZ is essentially for industrial production/infrastructure and the Chinese needed it more than any other type

>>65080565
Allbirds, the sneaker company, just 6Xed by announcing they were abandoning shoes to pivot to providing AI infrastructure. The NASDAQ going up is not proof that things are good.

>>65080937
https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-over
Forgot the source. Article came out months ago, but the important thing to note is that for the Chinese any type of oil restrictions will have big impact on them. Even with their consumer market running off of coal plants (Australian coal at that) for daily vehicle needs all of their heavy shipping will be impacted and their infra projects will be slowed as they run out of the various crude that drives their production economy. What makes this even more interesting is that post COVID Chinas production economy has been struggling as various countries tamper down their consumer markets and thus imports. The Chinese much like the USA are linked to the US consumer economy to help keep their various orders going. This is also why they artificially deflate their currency (Yuan), by deflating the currency outsiders (importers) are incentivized to purchase Chinese as their outside dollar goes farther into the local Chinese economy. This in turn gives them the ability to produce such huge scale numbers. They are attempting to replace it with internal purchasing power, but now with post COVID making so many money making projects go negative theyve had to sharply slash funds and push for manufacturing contractions (which hurt even more in this setup). By attacking their heavy diesel source you slash directly at the Chinese consumer as the external cost of goods raise enough to make them uncompetitive. Which means the Chinese have to further devalue their currency, which given the budget contractions has led to massive economic failure. This is why their largest real estate company failed a year or two ago and has been quietly covered up. The US has long controlled oil supplies via soft measures, our current setup is much more akin to the colonial/imperial era as we use it to effectively ice out the other competing empire

>>65080898
>believes this
70IQ brownoid spotted.

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>>65080917
>Burger is bad at geography and attempts to lecture others
fatigue

>>65080954
But anon it's because of Israel don't you know, the US dosen't do anything but for Israel ;)

>>65080946
...why is a shoe company making AI?
Do the shoes come with AI in them?
That has to be some sort of top signal

>>65080954
It's also worth noting that swapping from a producer economy is typically very painful and the US managed it via the petrodollar to help shift our manufacturing to cheaper locations. For the Chinese it's not clear what path they would take as Commies very much prefer production economies (physical goods are Commies love language when referring to the productivity of the workers). It's hard to imagine that any such economic shift will occur under Chinese leadership, if their hope is that their large consumer market will fuel spending then they also have to undo years of Communist policy to further push consumption economies (after all producers can only make so many goods before the market demand craters). This is why the Chinese have been keeping so quiet the last few years. They are currently reforming their military arms, their economic plans, and energy needs as they deal with a US super power that is playing more aggressively than it has in the last 50 years

None of this means Trump is a good leader, I consider him to be a useful muppet the more serious policy goal folks have been vaguely pointing in directions. We do know for example that Rubio is specifically targeting Cuba as his regime change target

This blockade is retarded and cope because the regime change decapitation strike failed and now we are stuck in a gay ass quagmire on behalf of world jewry.

>Iran closes Hormuz
>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for israel)
>Ceasefire is signed
>Iran opens Hormuz
>Ceasefire is broken in 30 minutes
>US closes Hormuz
>Within hours Trump posts on Truth social that Hormuz is open again
Someone explain the putinianesque 5d chess game to a white, Mediterranean Euro (with tanned arms up to the elbows) male with exclusively and only white schuko plugs in his house

>>65080971
>the US wants to get regime change so they can call it a day
>each time someone gets put in charge, Israel bombs them and their extended family
The cardboard for more ayatollah must be running low at this point

>>65080538

Working well?

US blocks ships that pay the Iranian toll, Iran blocks all ships that don't. So the strait is closed simple as.

Everyone pays more for oil, US allies in the gulf lose hundreds of billions monthly and the whole world gets higher inflation.


While this whole war is just an embarrassment for the US and another proof that the Israeli influence in the US needs to be uprooted, if the US wanted to strangulate Iran economically they should go for a much more heavy handed approach. all energy plants and oil facilities as well as other key infrastructure and all major factories and anything that can generate money. No power no oil no money and than just hope at some point social collapse causes them the implode politically or negotiate on US terms.
But Muslims are a resilient bunch and Trump has a much lower pain tolerance to the stock market going down than Iran has to its own people suffering.

So the current situation does little to change the negative status quo that the US and Israeli got everyone into.

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>>65080977
no one knows what the fuck is happening
anyone that pretends to know is lying

>>65080987
The regime is still intact and lobbing missiles/drones. This operation was obviously meant to be a few days.

>>65080977
Iran was playing fuck fuck games about uranium enrichment and found out. Decapitation strikes were too succesful and now Iran's govt is a bunch of mid level warlords playing game of thrones. Their one card of any worth was closing the strait and preying on insurance company hesitancy to hurt global oil pricing. Trump has managed to piss of Europe by daring to make them do something. They didn't want to get involved in America's world policing because they still don't think WW3 is happening already and are hoping things will remain relativley cozy while they pay Ukranians to mulch Russians in the perpetual slav blending machine.l that's been erected in the zone. One faction decides to break with the absent cardboard Ayatollah and enter into talks with America. Vance was sent and predictably talks went south as Iran still thinks soneone is coming to their aid after the global south puffed them up as the strongman of the week. The ceasefire failed for whatever reason and now America is blockading the blockade and choking the life out of iran until it submits. The world is having a melt because the game they refuse to take part in isn't benefiting them.

>>65081004
Holy cope textwall. The strait was open before the war. Now we are launching a war to reopen the strait that was open before we launched the war kek.

- 2 F-15 (claimed friendly fire, Patriot SAM)
- 1 F-15 (Kuwaiti F-18?)
- 1 KC-135 (claimed shot down by Iraqi militias)
- 1 KC-135 (damaged, claimed mid-air collision)
- ~20-30 Hermes-900 (claimed by Iran)
- ~10 Heron, up to Heron-TP (claimed by Iran)
- ~5 Hermes-450 ( Shot down by Hezbollah)
- ~24-30 MQ-9 Reaper (Shot-down & hit on ground)
- 1 KC-135 (heavily damaged on the ground)
- 3 KC-135 (damaged on the ground)
- 1 F-35 (heavily damaged/crash-landed)
- 1 F/A-18E (light damage by SAM)
- 1 KC-135 (destroyed on the ground)
- 1 KC-46 (claimed destroyed on the ground)
- 2-3 KC-135 (claimed damaged on the ground)
- 1 E-3 AWACS (destroyed on the ground)
- 1 E-3 AWACS (claimed damaged on the ground)
- 1 EC-130H (claimed destroyed on the ground)
- 1 EC-130H (claimed heavily damaged on the ground)
- 1 UH-60 Blackhawk (hit by Iraqi FPV drone)
- 1 F-15E (shot down)
- 1 A-10 (shot down over Strait of Hormuz)
- 1 A-10 (damaged & crashed, northern P. Gulf)
- 1 HH-60 (hit and crash-landed in Iraq)
- 1 HH-60 (hit by small arms, damaged)
- 2 CH-47 (destroyed on the ground)
- 1 CH-53 ? (destroyed on the ground, type unclear)
- 2 HC-130 (hit/destroyed on the ground by U.S.)
- 4 MH-6 (destroyed on the ground by U.S.)
- 1 MQ-4C (lost, most likely shot down over P. Gulf

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>>65081014
Woah, you can't say that online. Report to your nearest Amazon Prime Re-education Center immediately

>>65080977
>Iran didn't lose the Hormuz, according to Iran.
>US didn't go to war to open the Hormuz, it was a known side effect of any war.
>The ceasefire wasn't broken.
>The US didn't close the Hormuz, ships are passing through it freely.
I'm not sure where you're getting your information from but its veracity is all over the place.

>>65081018
>1 F-15 (Kuwaiti F-18?)
Does it still count as an A2A kill if it's friendly fire?

>>65080977
>Iran closes Hormuz
>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for Israel)
do you retards actually believe this shit?

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>>65081018

>>65081040
I want to kill whoever made this slide

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>>65081018
Meanwhile…

It crazy thirdies are so focus on the dollar value and not the loss of life.

>>65081014
the war was never about the strait, it was about buttfucking Iran and in the process bending China over. China can literally do nothing while America absolutely gapes China's allies

>>65081064
in the process bending the entire global economy, including the US domestic economy, over
fix'd

>>65081060
>muh kay dee
seppo spotted lmao

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>>65080914

>>65081039
No, see, he said it was for Israel, so now you have to support [brown and/or communist country] or you're a Jew.

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>>65081064
But /pol/ tells me China doing nothing and winning is the optimal strategy?!?!

>>65080977
Your sequencing of events is totally wrong

>>65080988
you can tell someone is a /pol/tard when they focus on muh economy but don't make a peep about how China is absolutely buttfucked by June if something (Iran) doesn't give

>>65081004
>Iran was playing fuck fuck games about uranium enrichment and found out.
Nigger what. Not even going into the nuclear deal that Trump backed out on during his first term, the US already took care of the "nuclear question" after the airstrikes back in the summer of 2025. If you think this was started because of "muh nukes" then that means the 2025 strikes did fuckall or you're getting smoke blown up your ass. Either way there is no way the Trump admin doesn't come out of this war looking dumb and retarded.

>>65081067
>if oil prices ever increase then the war is pointless and America loses
not how super powers work but erm ok

>>65081087
they sure do look dumb and retarded when you don't know what is going on. Do you realize how a naval blockade of Iran is going to rape China? Do you think Russian oil is going to save China?

>>65080561
>How does it achieve what war aims?
>the theory
Iran runs out of cash and their military and second more fanatical military give up or get overthrown.
>the reality
We don't fucking know.
Baring an actual revolution, China can prop up the current regime indefinetly.

>diplomatic
It's a social experiment to see how fast you can alienate all your allies.That said, the international gameplan is probably waiting it out and hoping Trump doesn'T survive the midterms.

>>65081097
he believes lavrov who states russia can replace iran as china's supplier, and conveniently ignores that it's physically impossible.

>>65081060
>get in a war with thridies
>expect them to value life
20 fucking years occupying sandnigger countries and apparently we haven't learned a fucking thing.
Thanks Obama.

>>65080620
>Russia, the country fighting an actual forever war, being China's main source of oil

>>65081097
So now it's about China and not nukes? Because I was responding to the anon talking about Iranian nukes. Strange how you ignored that and just pivoted straight to China. I don't think the Trump admin was doing all this as 4d chess maneuver to fuck China. It's just a good collateral excuse now. Why even bother easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil and putting a 60-day paused on the Jones Act if squeezing China was the end goal this whole time? That makes no fucking sense.

>>65080946
>Company that was always a scam pivots to the new popular scam
Allbirds says nothing about the market at all.

>>65081120
>eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities AND their provisions to China
le problem?

>>65080538
>Strategically speaking, how does Iran with no navy/airframes beat this?

Keep the strait blocked, blow up saudi pipelines that go to the Red Sea, then enjoy Scott Bessent screeching when the oil-dollar cycle stops. Irans strategic weapon is the achilles heel of the american economic system which uses debt as money. Very few people understand what this means. In practice, without the oil dollar cycle active, America will have to chose between paying higher interest rates on its debt when it is issued and reissued (debt rollover), or finance its debt rollover by having the federal reserve print money and hand it to the "pirates of the caribbean", hedge funds owned by you know who who will use the money to buy american bonds at low rates.

The former choice means America will have to dedicate the bulk of its tax income to service bond interest and bond repayments, the latter choice means annual real world inflation that will impoverish 95% of americans leading to domestic unrest, to say it mildly.

Sun Tzu would say that America is in death ground, where the only choice is to fight. So this is why this war is not over. Any temporary pause in operations against Iran will be used to shift men and materiel to the combat zone. And domestically the american MIC will have to be placed under government control becasue this is not a leisure war like Korea or Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan where a loss has no real consequences, lose this and America will become Brazil del Norte.

>>65081060
Thirdie lives are less valuable than equipment and they know it.

>>65081135
Even in the US Army the assessed dollar value of an infantryman is roughly 1/10th that of his equipment.

>>65080894
Singapore would like a word in that.

>>65080614
>History's Greatest Monster
Why did he give away the Panama Canal?
Why did he kowtow to the USSR?
Why did he give the "Malaise" speech rather than doing something about it?
Why did he create the Department of Education?

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Uhhh how is the US allowed to straight up commit piracy and no one doing shit?

>>65080691
where boy's hole?

>>65080657
The Marcellus gas trend in the northeast has an estimated 214 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. At the current rate of production that’s another 150 years worth of natural gas. And the only reason it’s not more is because the democrats in Nee York have banned fracking.

>>65081173
Epstein Island

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>>65081172
Issue letters of marque already you fat orange cunt! Just fucking do it! FUCK!

>>65080691
>No coal toll
6/10 apply yourself

>>65080620
There aren't enough pipelines from the western oil fields to China. The oil fields in the east which are connected to China don't produce enough. This means that most of the oil has to go from the Baltic and Black Sea ports all the way around Asia. Oh, and Ukraine keeps blowing up key refinery equipment.

>>65081172
shooting at ships at random is pirate behavior. The US seizing Iranian ships is fair game

>>65081189
Are you blind Anon? It's right there on the northern Omani coast

>>65081172
Seizing enemy flagged ships (as well as neutrally flagged ships that you have probable cause to believe are destined for an enemy port) is permitted under the laws and usages of war.

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>>65081186

>>65081189
ayo dis nigga can't read

>>65080977
>>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for israel)
Fucking retard

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>>65081060
>700 mossad agents arrested
What

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>>65081186
Only Congress can issue letters of Marque and reprisal

We've had a first toll, what about second toll?
How many tolls must an Ayatollah pass through to be flesh and not cardboard?
Will the ancient war between tariff lovers and toll enjoyers ever end?

>>65081223
Find out this One Weird Trick to stop your opposition!

>>65081069
Get the fuck out of Australia chinkmutt.

>>65080954
Interesting read, but I really wish people like this would just present their information instead of using AI to turn it into a longform essay. I'm not even an AI-hater, I just don't see the point. I guess he feels like this format gives more credibility than a xwitter post, and it probably would except that he clearly didn't put more effort into it than a xwitter post.

>>65081172
Just wait until you find out what privateering is

>>65080960
Diversity is our strength.
>>65081151
I bet they would.

>>65080894
You know why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and invaded the Philippines, right?