Thread #1504896
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https://www.eurasiantimes.com/uae-mirage-2000-9-jets-suspected-in-lava n-refinery-strike-after-u-s-iran-ce asefire-reports-claim/
An attack on Iran’s Lavan oil refinery on April 8, 2026, tested the fragile two-week ceasefire that came into effect between the US and Iran after about 40 days of intense fighting in West Asia.
Iran’s National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said on April 8 that an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island was targeted in an “enemy attack” around 10 a.m. (0630 GMT), Oil Ministry’s news outlet, Shana, reported.
Following the attack, Iran carried out retaliatory strikes on the UAE and Kuwait, Iranian state television announced. “Missile and drone attacks on the Emirates and Kuwait have taken place a few hours after the targeting of Lavan island oil facilities in Iran,” IRIB stated.
Notably, both the US and Israel denied their role in the strikes on Iran since the ceasefire was announced. However, following the attack on Lavan, some reports began circulating on social media, claiming that the strike was carried out by a Mirage 2000-9, which is operated by only one country in the world: the UAE.
The images attributed to the Mirage 2000-9 were also published on social media, but their veracity could not be independently established. Subsequently, analysts pointed out that the aircraft type was both operationally confirmed as active that morning and was also technically suited for this kind of mission.
However, reports citing the UAE Ministry of Defense stated that the Mirage had been deployed to intercept incoming Iranian missiles and drones.
Neither the UAE nor official sources in Iran have commented on these allegations at the time of writing this report.
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>>1504904
>makes no sense they’d do so now they aren’t getting bombed
>Bomb Iran
>Iran retaliates
>US intervenes to defend our partners in the region
It's literally the exact same shit Israel did. Iran would rather become the entire world's problem to get political pressure on anyone that attacks them to cut shit out instead of fighting a protracted war against a single country. Countries in the region know this. They also know a regional conflict is enough of the problem the US would join in.
Any country that wants the US to bomb Iran either as payback for past attacks or to potentially cripple their oil production to help drive up prices/hurt the regime's primary source of income has every incentive in the world to do so unilaterally and drag the US into it.
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>>1505081
My opinion is they should’ve kicked the Americans out of the UAE at the start of the war and declared neutrality. Starting shit now with Iran when the US wants a ceasefire is almost suicidal, the Iranians can probably invade them.
To answer your question directly, if they wanted to participate they should’ve started as soon as Iran targeted them. What they’re doing now is like throwing a rock at the kid who just stood up to the bully and made him back off. Makes no sense
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>>1505128
>the Iranians can probably invade them.
Countries can't project force like that unless the US lets them, and Iran isn't Russia or China, which means the US doesn't have to let them do jack shit.
The US wanting a ceasefire isn't the same thing as the US wanting a ceasefire more than our other interests in the region. If Iran tried to invade the UAE, they would get their shit kicked in. All Iran can do outside their borders is launch mines/missiles/drones.
This is of course assuming Trump hasn't gone full lead brain and isn't going to just pack up and leave the middle east because war turned out to be harder than his dumbass thought it was, but the Evangelicals would crucify the Republicans if they left Iran better off and therefore Israel more vulnerable than before the war.
I wonder if Iran would split their straight tolls with Trump's fake Palestinian redevelopment organization to get him to back off?
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>>1505134
The US are surrendering, they are abandoning the Gulf as per Iranian stipulations. These negotiations aren’t really negotiations, Iran have demands and if the US don’t accept them the war will continue and yes the US can deny Iran naval presence in the Gulf (maybe not 100% but I’ll agree with you).
Right now as of this moment the US and Iran are observing a ceasefire and if that holds then Iran can decide to invade the UAE, which is why it’s crazy for the UAE to just attack Iran now.
If you are arguing that the US would resume a war they don’t want to be in to protect the UAE that’s fine, that’s a position
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>>1505140
>If you are arguing that the US would resume a war they don’t want to be in to protect the UAE that’s fine, that’s a position
Yes, they would.
>Right now as of this moment the US and Iran are observing a ceasefire and if that holds then Iran can decide to invade the UAE
That would be considered a ceasefire violation. Also, the ceasefire won't hold anyway as long as Iran controls the straight.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-deat h-toll-and-injuries-live-tracker
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/INTERACTIVE-DEATH -TOLL-tracker-war-US-Israel-and-Ira n-attacks-APRIL-10-2026-1775817896. png
Here is an image of all the countries that Iran bombed in the region. UAE was struck multiple times, 12 dead 224 injured
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>>1505145
No. If the UAE are going to start fighting Iran now during the US ceasefire it will only break the ceasefire if the US resumes hostilities with Iran. The US can disown the UAE and Iran can deal with them.
>>1505156
Iraq didn’t have the capability to attack the troop buildup during the first Iraq war, Iran does have that now which is why we aren’t seeing any major troop buildup from the US in the region, because they’d be bombed by Iran
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>>1505145
>the ceasefire won't hold anyway as long as Iran controls the straight
Iranian control of the strait is one of the terms for the US surrender. If the Americans have no intention of agreeing to that then they are wasting time now entering the negotiations
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>>1505163
>No. If the UAE are going to start fighting Iran now during the US ceasefire it will only break the ceasefire if the US resumes hostilities with Iran. The US can disown the UAE and Iran can deal with them.
You're a dumb motherfucker.
>>1505164
>If the Americans have no intention of agreeing to that then they are wasting time now
Yes.
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>>1505164
>>1505170
In fact, not only are both sides wasting their time, both sides are intentionally wasting their time. The Trump administration is flailing trying to come up with anything short of invasion that will let them pry control of the straight from Iran, and Iran is preparing for renewed US bombardment by moving what can be moved and hardening what can be hardened. The negotiations are a play for time from both sides.
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>>1505170
It’s not dumb. If the US want to surrender they will and they’ll abandon their allies that want to go on fighting. The US do want to surrender otherwise they wouldn’t be going into the parlay with Iran, because if they didn’t want to surrender there’s no strategic logic in wasting time now rather than continuing the bombing or starting an invasion, waiting now only helps Iran to better prepare for more bombing or an invasion, so logically the Americans don’t want to continue the war which means they will have to accept the terms and abandon the Gulf which means the US won’t help if the UAE start attacking Iran.
If I’m missing something feel free to respond
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>>1505172
>Trump administration is flailing trying to come up with anything short of invasion that will let them pry control of the straight from Iran
There are no reasonable options. They are going to run out of missiles eventually and they don’t want to invade, so they need to negotiate but the Iranians aren’t negotiating because every time they do that the get attacked so they’re just giving take it or leave it demands for the fighting to stop, which is what everyone wants otherwise oil prices and global depression. The US don’t want to fight on because it’s too expensive and they can’t win, and Iran will prefer to stop fighting so they can start rebuilding bridges and schools and synagogues.
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>>1505224
>The US do want to surrender
You are a dumb motherfucker.
>>1505225
>The US don’t want to fight on because it’s too expensive and they can’t win
Letting Iran control the straight is more expensive long term, both because it will turn Iran into a much bigger problem later and because it will set a precedent for other countries to do the same bullshit. The US isn't looking to see global shipping costs skyrocket because all the worst countries on earth require every ship within drone range to pay a security fee for safe passage. If there's one thing states hate, it's people fucking with the shipping. Literally why the Marines were created.
>There are no reasonable options.
Yeah, which is why we'll probably end up with some unreasonable shit happening because Trump got us into this clown show. Knowing this administration, we could see anything from a ground invasion to deliberately targeting Iran's mines to try and force them to get them out into the straight and make it unusable for anyone to mass war crimes like Trump has threatened to the US seizing any ship that pays the toll for sanctions violations.
Trump can't stand looking like a loser. Anyone suggesting he'd let Iran have the straight to spare American lives is delusional.
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>>1505227
>Letting Iran control the straight is more expensive long term, both because it will turn Iran into a much bigger problem later and because it will set a precedent for other countries to do the same bullshit.
Then we shouldn't have started this war in the first place. The reality is Iran has us in checkmate; if we invade to open the Strait, they bomb the shit out of the UAE and the entire oil industry becomes a shitshow. If we don't, well you just said it. No one wants to help us because we started the whole conflict and Trump spent the last 8 years insulting and/or threatening every ally we have.
This whole war was absolutely retarded to start in the first place. Trump's legacy will be an empowered Iran, a weakened US, and a permanent increase in gas prices.
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>>1505227
The US has three options;
1/ Surrender now and Iran controls the strait
2/ Keep bombing Iran until the US runs out of missiles, and Iran controls the strait
3/ Invade Iran and attempt to take control of the strait by military force, the strait stays closed because now it’s a war zone
That’s it. If you think of something else let me know. Option invade isn’t a guarantee and actually the US would be the underdogs in that fight as things stand for various reasons
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>>1505228
>Then we shouldn't have started this war in the first place
Yes.
>if we invade to open the Strait, they bomb the shit out of the UAE and the entire oil industry becomes a shitshow
The entire oil industry is a shitshow either way. You think protection rackets across the third world aren't going to have an impact on oil costs and availability?
We either find something Iran wants more than control of the straight that they don't already have if we do nothing, we cut off traffic from the straight completely, or we cripple Iran enough that they effectively can't harass the straight, likely through a ground invasion to push back Iranian artillery and packing the place with air defenses and electronic warfare to at least get some oil through while we wage a protracted war to cripple Iran's weapon production and supplies.
That last option is probably what will end up happening, unfortunately. At least Iran has virtually no air defense and no neighbors that can effectively rearm them or provide them with places to repair their shit, not to mention our modern eyes in the sky, so shit won't go as badly as Ukraine has for Russia. For us, anyway. Trump's probably gonna black out the entire country, law be damned.
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>>1505248
He responded to a post about UAE Mirage planes bombing Iran with "trump and Israel are doing everything to violate the cease fire now"
Trump and Israel have nothing to do with Iran bombing the UAE, and the UAE bombing Iran back
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/INTERACTIVE-DEATH -TOLL-tracker-war-US-Israel-and-Ira n-attacks-APRIL-10-2026-1775817896. png
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>>1505252
My main thing is they'll just target the desalination plants across the gulf the moment it becomes clear they're losing, which might actually have worse ripple effects than if they remain in control of the strait. It's their own personal Samson Option and since the start of this war they've signaled they're willing to do it.
Also I would contest that they have no air defense considering they're already shot down a few US jets.
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>>1505252
>something Iran wants more than control of the straight that they don't already have if we do nothing
They’re going to charge some ships to pass through the strait, they’ll be making 90bn a year doing this. So idk maybe pay them more than that and they’ll make it free
>we cut off traffic from the straight completely
How? Are you going to bomb ships passing through strait, or hijack ships before they enter it?
>or we cripple Iran enough that they effectively can't harass the straight,
They’ve been trying to do this for 40 days already and will run out of missiles before Iran can’t send one drone a day into the strait to keep it locked down
>likely through a ground invasion to push back Iranian artillery
You’ll need to conquer and occupy the entire country and some kind of complete movement restrictions to keep Iranians out of drone range of the strait, you won’t be able to do this even if you try killing or arresting every single person it’s not feasible
>and packing the place with air defenses and electronic warfare to at least get some oil through while we wage a protracted war to cripple Iran's weapon production and supplies
Nobody wants to ship valuable cargo through a war zone. You’re also assuming the US will even be able to land enough force to not only beachhead but to penetrate deep enough to set a safe perimeter from all kinds of projectiles. If you don’t take over the whole country they’ll still be in the mountains throwing missiles at whatever ship tries to pass, the range is 2’000km on some of them. They could also move gear to Iraq and shoot from there. I don’t think the US has the manpower without conscription to hold the entire country.
My opinion is take the deal offered, go back to America. It’s a fight the US can’t win so take your licks and move on from it quickly
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>>1505258
You’re wrong. Iran are only meeting escalation, Iran are only targeting civilian infrastructure in response to the US and Israel targeting civilian infrastructure. Iran will not target civilian infrastructure if the US and Israel cease targeting civilian infrastructure. They’d rather bomb military targets, but if you’re going to bomb their water supply and oil fields and power stations they will do the same to you
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>>1505266
Except the problem is the US and Israel's plans for a ground invasion would almost certainly involve targeting that same infrastructure. Iran is a natural fortress; pretty much the only way to avoid literally years-long sieges during ground operations would be taking out power stations, oil fields, and desalination plants.
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>>1505264
>You’ll need to conquer and occupy the entire country and some kind of complete movement restrictions to keep Iranians out of drone range of the strait, you won’t be able to do this even if you try killing or arresting every single person it’s not feasible
Iranian drones can't fucking hit moving targets without guidance. They are also big and slow enough to be taken down with conventional AA, not just missile interceptors. Jamming the fuck out of the strait, giving tankers escorts, and pushing Iranian forces inland is enough to protect shipping. The drones are more of a threat to oil production facilities than shipping, shit that can't move. Artillery and missiles are the shit the ships should be worried about. And pushing that away doesn't require taking the whole country. Ending the threat permanently will, or will otherwise require putting the regime through enough pain that they're willing to negotiate, but first concern is going to be getting oil flowing again. Trump can and probably will dump a protracted war on the incoming Dem admin to fuck em over like Republicans love to do.
>How?
Piracy, just like with Venezuela and Cuba.
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>>1505270
>Jamming the fuck out of the strait, giving tankers escorts, and pushing Iranian forces inland is enough to protect shipping.
Fuck no lmao. No ship is going through the strait without a guarantee that they won't get hit. The only ones who can provide that guarantee are Iran.
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>>1505272
>Fuck no lmao. No ship is going through the strait without a guarantee that they won't get hit
US ships operating with impunity off the coast of Iran will be a guarantee they won't get hit.
If they can't even target warships, the tankers have nothing to worry about.
Also, an Iranian guarantee is worth jack shit when it would just take one Israeli missile pissing off the wrong commander for them to change their mind after the fact and sink all the undefended ships in range.
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>>1505274
>US ships operating with impunity off the coast of Iran will be a guarantee they won't get hit.
No they fucking aren't lmao. Trump already tried promising "oh you'll be escorted" and literally no one took him up on it.
>If they can't even target warships, the tankers have nothing to worry about.
They can, they have, and they will continue to do so. You don't seem to understand how dangerous this is.
>Also, an Iranian guarantee is worth jack shit when it would just take one Israeli missile pissing off the wrong commander for them to change their mind after the fact and sink all the undefended ships in range.
Are you retarded? How it works is simple; the US cannot promise Iran will not bomb ships. Only Iran can do that. If they renege on that promise, the strait is just closed for good. But they haven't yet and they're the only option.
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>>1505282
>US ships aren't operating with impunity yet, so yeah, no shit.
As long as there is a chance for them to be bombed, no fucking shipping company is taking it up on that. There is only one country that can guarantee ships crossing the strait won't be bombed at this point, and that country is Iran.
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>>1505274
Israel is a US proxy, whether they like it or not, and as such will do as they’re told or they’ll have all funding, support and supply cut and we’ll see how long they last without US refuelling, anti-air defense (THAAD etc.), weapons systems, parts for their US made equipment, diplomatic cover, etc etc.
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>>1505303
$1 a barrel is barely noticeable, and it won’t even be on every barrel passing the strait. The Iranian oil will not pay a toll, and neither will the Iraqi oil they’ve got a deal for helping get rid of the US bases in Iraq. The only other oil passing the strait is Kuwaiti, Saudi, Bahraini, and Emirit and some of those have other pipelines leading to ports they can use to bypass the strait. It’s definitely going to increase the price of oil by <20c per barrel globally, which compared to keeping this conflict ongoing is barely anything
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>>1505311
Yeah except they aren’t. That’s a whole other situation as to why the US keeps doing what Israel wants and not necessarily in the best interests of the US. Could be anything, but what we do know is there’s a direct correlation between US politicians who take funding from AIPAC and other Zionist pacs and those politicians not only supporting Israeli policies but also funding the Israeli military.
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>>1505316
This entire conflict has been a failure ever since they killed the leader and replaced them with someone that's going to be more radical. At this point it's better for everyone if Trump just hangs his coat up and marks Iran as his botched military conflict that every two term president gets.
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>>1505308
On the same grounds that foundries are? Oil make tank go vroom. Oil's been considered a strategic military resource for all of modern history. The idea of it being a war crime to attack it, vs say water or power, is laughable.
>>1505310
>and as such will do as they’re told or they’ll have all funding, support and supply cut
By what fucking president or Congress, cockwit?
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>>1505326
Food is also a strategic military resource but if we all bomb the farms everybody dies of starvation, fucking idiot.
>Oil's been considered a strategic military resource for all of modern history.
There’s a difference between a resource and a target.
Oilfields and refineries are not considered legitimate military targets by default, because the destruction of them brings dire consequences to civilian populations. They are like water and power supplies in that sense, but the US and Israel don’t have any problem bombing those either so whatever.
Normally those things aren’t targeted by either side in a conflict, especially since if you win you have to rebuild them and if you lose you have to pay to rebuild them and blowing them up harms civilians disproportionately
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>>1505321
During WW2 civilians were bombed with fire and nukes, undesirable populations were rounded up and imprisoned and forced to relocate, prisoners of war were summarily executed in two of the three major theatres. There’s a reason why all this international law stuff came about after WW2
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The thing is, as demonstrated by the escalation in this conflict, if you make an otherwise civilian target into a military target you can expect the enemy to do the same. Israel and the US were the first in this conflict to bomb water plants, oil refineries, oil and gas fields, bridges, places of worship, and universities and schools. This means that in this conflict those things will now be considered legitimate targets for the enemy, and Iran has bombed most of those mention with the exception of places of worship and schools. Every single energy infrastructure, bridge, and water supply facility in the US is now a legitimate target for Iran to attack, crucially and luckily for the American people they are too far away for Iran to reach them
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>>1505332
>Oilfields and refineries are not considered legitimate military targets by default
They are, dipshit. Ukraine's been bombing the shit out of Russia's oil industry and those assholes would have run to the UN about it if it were a war crime.
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>>1505330
>Anon who controls who Iran does and does not bomb. Is it Iran or the US?
Anon, if Iran controlled who they bombed, Israel would be rubble.
And beyond that, you completely missed my point which is that political promises are worth jack shit. Trump literally campaigned on no more regime change wars in the Middle East. Who controls who the US bombs?
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>>1505338
>>1505339
You’re retarded. I’m not saying you’re mentally disabled or a bad person but you’re a bit slow. Russia can’t go to the UN about this because they’ve done worse shit during that war like executing civilians and torturing pows.
Arguing that the US can do it because some other country in some other war did in and got away with it does not justify it.
Iran aren’t trying to turn Israel into what Gaza looks like, they aren’t explicitly targeting civilians or residential areas, you can see better in the Gulf the only civilian residential places they’ve targeted is where the US troops were hiding in the hotels
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>>1505394
>Russia can’t go to the UN about this because they’ve done worse shit during that war like executing civilians and torturing pows.
lmao at Russia having shame. They've bitched plenty at the UN about Ukraine.
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