Thread #16957127
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>big numbers dont mean anything
Yes it does. They dont care if there is 2 million, 2 billion, 2 trillion, or 2x1024 galaxies, their argument would always be the same based on flawed reasoning, you could give literally any number for the age of the universe and the number of galaxies and it wouldn't matter (which is kinda embarassing for them when you put it this way)
>Intelligent life is hard
See how they say hard instead of impossible. They cant say impossible because we are here, but they may as well just say it considering how for them the statistically low the odds are that we are the only ones here in the first place, which is contradictory in and on itself
>fermi paradox says there should be conquered galaxies we would see by now
"Hey bro, just colonize a 100 thousand light year territory and maintain it logistically". Empires on earth struggled to maintain itself with only 3 thousand miles expansion.
>we cant see life or anything related anywhere
We can barely see planets surfaces on our own solar system or the bottom of our own oceans.
>abiogenes is soo unlikely
Yes, you are special. More likely you are one-in-a-septillion chance than the other way around.
Their reasoning is so flawed that if we manage to find one more intelligent life elsewhere, it would change absolutely nothing in their point of view. They would just say "well it happened twice instead of once, still doesnt mean its common everywhere", or "well NOW we know we are not alone, so intelligent life is easy to occur". But it still wouldn't make sense from their perspective because once or twice is basically the exact same probability considering the size and age of the universe.
And all that without even considering non tangible stuff like dark forest theory, non human intelligent life, etc
What causes successfull and otherwise smart high IQ academia individuals to be blind (stupid?) to such simple common sense and logic, what is this phenomenon?
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It's embarrassing but many people are functionally innumerate. Not in the sense that they can't put 2 and 2 together as they were taught in school, but in that they can't seem to accept the implications or understand what they're doing really. Anything involving large numbers and probabilities seems particularly hard to grasp. Also I think they don't really trust any calculations, probably because of that handicap.
You also have the opposite problem where some autistic engineers will blindly follow their calculations wherever they lead in spite of all common sense without asking themselves if maybe the original formula was a poor analog to reality, but that's much rarer.
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The universe exhibits a high degree of order, ranging from the fundamental laws of physics and predictable celestial mechanics to complex patterns like the Fibonacci sequence in nature. While overall entropy (disorder) increases, local systems frequently organize themselves into structures, such as stars, galaxies, and life.
There's no room in matter; life is fundamental.
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>But it still wouldn't make sense from their perspective because once or twice is basically the exact same probability
no, gun to the head I think most people would agree life is probably everywhere but you still need to operate under the assumption we have zero idea how likely it is for life to form and that we could be it. Finding it elsewhere changes everything but until then you can't just go off vibes
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take a physics class tbdesu.
expansion of the universe happens faster than light. every galaxy is red-shifted light meaning they are moving away from us at FTL speeds.
the only exception is andromeda which will collide. so even if there are aliens, they would have to exist in the milky way or andromeda to mean anything to us.
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>>16957127
I imagine aliens exist but we could also live in a huge multiverse where life may exist in other universes but not ours. The probability of life appearing doesn’t matter at all. If it’s one in a googol then it will still appear somewhere. Nobody actually understands the physical process of abiogenesis so it’s hard to deduce the probability.
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>>16957964
One in a googol never happens period.
>>16957127
>what is this phenomenon?
educated retard is the word you are looking for
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>>16957127
>bro life evolved everywhere
>okay bro we can't see any signs of life in the observable universe but it's there bro I swear
>filter x, filter y, filter #3985345 prevent all of these billions of civilizations from sending radio waves bro
>bro please hear me out it's a hecking paradox
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>>16957127
The fermi paradox is a statement about *intelligent* life because radio signals are detectable from lightyears away. Biomarkers of unintelligent life are not.
You are right. Current data does not discredit the likelihood of alien life. However it does kind of discredit the existence of supercivilizations.
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>>16958035
>>16958038
Nasa's communicates with Voyager , 0.0025 light-years using a 23-watt transmitter. Earth’s giant 70-meter dishes barely detect it as a tiny fraction of a billionth of a watt after spreading, scaling this to light-years shows how weak distant signals become
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>>16957127
So you hypothetically have an argument if the future unfolds a certain way?
If God comes down and smites you then God is real. And because this is more likely than whatever you are whacking off about, my theory is better. Convert heathen.
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whether there are other civs out there is irrelevant the distances are so far, and the time frame that civs exist is so short that they most likely come and go like sparks from a campfire.
effectively we are alone.
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>>16957964
I feel like the aliens are there in the milky way and andromeda but space is getting too big to ever meet and collide with each other, shits a 0.5% percent chance of ever meeting. Plus most aliens probably don't give that much of a shit about space and rather care about their own problems like us and have alien orgies all day.