Thread #154131031
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>>154132515
Would be based if there's "bad blood" between them now and they start the game in the same way with fights all around. If they are redditly peaceful i'd feel more betrayed than stuttfart dirtmund (which as you know ended 3-3 last time)
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A little update. +1.5 run lines at plus odds are now 12-5 on the season.
If you bet all favorites you are 74-65, down a whopping -12.54 units
If you bet all dogs you are 65-74, up a solid +4.38 units.
Smash those bookies. Good luck to all, and don't bet what you don't have.
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>>154134806
Also, I believe the White Sox and Blue Jays are the best dogs on the board tonight.
White Sox are in great form, just swept a series as dogs, won 4 of their last 5. Both teams are home dogs.
Blue Jays are in an early desperation spot. Great bounce back spot for them. Revenge spot for the WS last year. 78% of the public is on Dodgers, everybody giving up on the Jays. Not me.
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interesting thing about live betting with baseball right now. if a game goes to extra innings and a team bunts the runner over to third base to start the inning and now there is a runner on third and 1 out, the odds of them winning actually goes down slightly. not much, talking like 1.83 to 1.86, but essentially they lost 1% probability to win in the books opinion.
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also baseball overs are pretty good bets right now. batters are quick to call for abs reviews and pitchers cant really get cheap strikes anymore. its a very offensive game now and the books still might not have fully factored the abs effect in yet.
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>>154137102
uconn to win the championship has to be the books biggest liability tonight. +900 before the tournament started, and +270 dogs tonight, books are going to get hosed if uconn manages to win or even get this into a situation where people can start cashing out or hedging their bets. somehow doubt an industry run by accountants and actuators allows that to happen but i guess its college sports.
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Are (You) ready for some HUNCHES ????????????
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Plenty of games ahead. >>154137805
Help me with some thoughts
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Basically, Slovenia i need you to give me a result for each of these games, and i'll also try to post my predictions in the meantime.
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We can make a ton of money with these games. I'm so proud i haven't went all in on sabres tampa bay. So i still have a budget. For these 50 games ahead. 150 ron i got. (30 €). So one by one only wins (or reduced losses), never all in, good staking. One more [attempted] run . Let's fucking goo
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All relevant games. Let the predictions begin!
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I see some good overs in there. Let's disect them one by one. Which one you like? You like this un' here Thun v FC Basel 5+
Or al hilal al sadd q'atar 5+>>154140574
Elvsberg Schalke?
All eredivisie games
Boy oh boy are we in for a treat
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>>154140592
>>154140594
I post here whenever I think I found some advantage anyway. Will try to look into all of these before they happen and consult with you. But first I need Real Madrid and Arsenal to win today. I bet all the 22x I made Sunday on that parlay. That will determine whether I will blow trough all of my current money on bet365 or gain considerably more.
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UFC 327 Saturday 4/11
Three excellent betting weeks in a row, trying to keep it rolling with a great numbered card in Miami.
>Radtke -200 vs Prado
Line isn't wide enough. Prado is tough, just doesn't present enough danger to be anything but a +300 level dog here. Radtke hits harder, grapples better, and puts it on Prado IMO. Puncher's chance for Prado, nothing more. Wouldn't be surprised to see Chuck Buffalo around -300 by fight night.
>Luque by submission +1300
Small bet. This is the only way he wins. Luque used to have a granite chin, lost that when he suffered a brain bleed following his fight against Neal. Gastelum will batter him on the feet, I think Luque opts to grapple where he has a major advantage on the mat. Sub is worth a look at a big number.
>Padilla -180 vs Mederos
Padilla has overperformed expectations in UFC, Mederos has underperformed considering how much hype he had coming in. Padilla lands more in a standup fight and wins via UD.
>Suarez -155 vs Loopy
Fading Loopy has been profitable, especially when she's favored or a small dog. Loopy is a very small 115er, I think Suarez's physicality is too much and she wins a comfortable decision behind about 9 minutes of control time.
>Gamrot -175 vs Ribovics
You might get a better price on Gamrot closer to fight night. Ribovics is an exciting brawler but has shitty TDD. I see Gamrot getting takedown after takedown, but struggling to hold Ribovics down. As long as Gamrot doesn't get chinned late he will win 29-28 like he always does.
>Pico vs Pitbull fight doesn't go distance -130
Pico is a prohibitive favorite at -350, and Pitbull just doesn't do enough to justify a ML bet here. Give me the fight to end violently. Pico has big time weapons and a terrible chin. Pitbull has been dropped and finished as well.
1/2
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>>154142767
should have known better. i made 22x over the weekend, put it all in this parlay. aside for the ninja turtle scoring, not real nor arsenal won. i will recover trough the night though. i found 5 euro in the kitchen and will soon be heading towards the city to a deposit accepting atm machine.
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>>154145763
>Walker vs Reyes over 1.5 +150
Yeah, I know betting an over on two giant chinny strikers is dumb. On principle I'm taking as many plus money over 1.5's as possible. Could see Reyes grappling here and extending the fight...if he got past 1.5 against Jiri he can do it against Walker.
>Blaydes -135 vs Hokit
Too much too soon for Hokit. He's a small heavyweight and I think he's overmatched everywhere except durability. In a straight striking match Blaydes will piece him up. In a wrestling match Blaydes is much larger and stronger. Hokit could def find Blaydes' chin and end it, but I like Blaydes to stuff takedowns and use his length to jab Hokit to death and win a DEC.
>Murzakonov -205 vs Costa
Costa sucks, super overrated fighter who hasn't been good for 5 years. Murzakonov has a huge speed and accuracy advantage, plus he's better defensively. Murzakonov wins 1-2 then fades a bit but holds on for a 29-28.
>Jiri vs Ulberg over ladder
Jiri has a reputation as a wild brawler, but his fights usually get past the halfway point (or close) and he cashes overs more than you'd think. Jiri starts slow and Ulberg will be content to jab, calf kick, rinse and repeat for the first 2 rounds. Taking over 1.5 -225, over 2.5 +100, ove r3.5 +150, and over 4.5 +205. Half unit each.
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ok i made some money on Cruzeiro. I think Lamine is due to score tonight. He has played 4 games without scoring or assisting and hasn't scored in the last 3 encounters with Atleti, while Lewa, Rashy have. Raphinha is injured. I will combine this with a play on Togichi City, Betis and the copa libertadores matches into the night.
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>>154140592
Tigres Seattle is not overs at all for me, they are both under sides.
I would have bet Toluca LA overs last season but not this early this season, so that’s unders for me too.
Madrid game looks ok considering they lost today
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MY ALWAYS 20 POINTS PER GAME GOATS!!!
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MLB dog system update:
If you bet every favorite you are 98-90, you are down -20.74 units
If you bet every underdog you are 90-98, you are up +10.39 units
Top 5 most profitable teams:
1) Guardians: +6.10 units (43.6% ROI)
2) Reds: +3.99 units (28.47% ROI)
3) Cardinals: +2.73 units (20.99% ROI)
4) Rockies: +2.68 units (19.14% ROI)
5) Rangers: +2.37 units (18.20% ROI)
Top 5 least profitable teams:
1) Mariners: -6.56 units (-46.89% ROI)
2) Tigers: -5.94 units (-42.40% ROI)
3) Red Sox: -5.25 units (-40.39% ROI)
4) Blue Jays: -3.57 units (-27.49% ROI)
5) Royals: -3.31 units (-23.63% ROI)
Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.
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>>154194519
Because they think the left hook is there and its really not. Jiri gets hooked by Pereira because Pereira can also KO you from any other position basically. Ulberg only has the left and a weak leg kick
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>>154194519
It's called a reddit pick. Like mcgregor was against mayweather. And to no surprise, the redditor's fighter did reddit things (not punishing the injured foot). Borussia Dortmund players go and applaud their fans in away games. It's a reddit gesture. Cause it's not out of real respect, it comes from a place of ... moral superiority. For example, i was playing a lot of fifa 26 lately and Gemini helped me perfect my tactics. Then i remembered i was playing with a friend, and i scored for 2-0 and accidently my player ran to the cameraman, and did the "ran to the camera celebration", so after i lost 2-9 my friend told me that he lost his shit when i did that celebration. So ever since i was spamming the camera celebration at every goal online. But then i asked gemini if this pisses people off cause i can't tell and gemini said if it didn't it wouldn't be so many threads about toxic celebrations on reddit and running to the camera is always in top 3. So obviously i continued doing it. Jiri , the man who even has the reddit samurai haircut, cause that's why redditors were drawn to him, for his edgy style, Jiri is the kind of guy who specifically wouldn't celebrate in fifa, to not be toxic. Cause they have the protagonists syndrome, they have to be the good guys.
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>>154198964
And just so you see where the irony is. I only do the celebration to put him off his game. I do it when i score at 1-0. At 1-0. To set the tone. To show disrespect to make him run desperately to equalize, instead of playing calmly. And then at 2-0 i do it again, and at 3-0 again. And i even do it when i score for 7-6 in 86th , just to put him off his game, to make him sit through that dead space instead of putting the ball back into play when he's eager to score. (it even works if he leads 3-0 and i managed to get 1 back). But if he's already beat and i score for 6-1 in 85th i don't do it anymore. That's real moral superiority, cause i don't want to humiliate. Prochachka instead, the redditor, being the good guy, still beats me in the end. It's 6-6 and he makes it 7-6 in 90+ just before the final whistle. That's when he does the celebration. He didn't celebrate any goal until then, but when i can't even get another chance (cause the ref will blow the whistle after the celebration) that's when he does it. That's when he laughs to my face. And the whole reddit is feeling justice has been served. Evil was defeated. He paid with the same coin. He has the final laugh. When in fact, for me it was only business. Which reminds me of... EXACTLY: Khabitch Nurmagomedov, he was so fucking reddit in the Conor fight. He was the good guy, the protagonist in his head, defeating evil, while McGregor was just trying to promote the fight.
Conclusion: 4chans taunts before and during the game/fight, reddit laughs in your face after they won
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MLB Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +490
MLB Bubba Chandler (PIT) Over 2.5 Total Pitcher Walks +140
MLB Gunnar Henderson (BAL) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +588
MLB Rafael Devers (SF) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +620
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>>154204192
results this season for dinger model
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I've been fucking around the last week trying to win 10 euro per day, betting horses/tennis flash bets etc with the bet sizing so that I'll win 10 euro or 10 euro plus X((X = losing stakes so far that day)
How likely am I to get restricted doing this? And could I up the stakes slightly if I am betting too little to get restricted?
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MLB Dog System Update:
If you bet every favorite this season, you are 122-111 (52.4%) and you are down -26.9 units.
If you bet every dog this season, you are 111-122 (47.6%) and you are up +16.7 units.
Where are the seething weirdos at right now? Very quiet on the /bet/ front. Funny how that works out.
Top 5 most profitable teams
1) Guardians: +5.09 units
2) Athletics: +3.64 units
3) Twins: +3.45 units
4) Nationals: +3.14 units
5) Dbacks: +3.20 units
Top 5 least profitable teams
1) Blue Jays: -4.92 units
2) Astros: -4.70 units
3) Red Sox: -4.68 units
4) Mariners: -4.67 units
5) Phillies: -3.98 units
Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.
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LaMelo Ball (CHA) Over 7.5 Assists -120
Averages 9.2 assists per 36 minutes, is playing the fastest team in the NBA at home, should see an influx of minutes that get him close to 36 minutes, and it's 7.5 at relatively modest vig? okay
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>>154222045
think it moves more desu
lewis sucks but it this is the matchup for him
prob a snoozer of lewis looking for a counter shot and hokk trying to be busy enough to shoot takedowns
trump likes lewis for whatever reason
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I just lost 300 dollars and made ot back in under 6 hours.
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big line mismatch in this kings vs canucks game tomorrow.
most sport books have the moneyline around:
kings @ 1.58 vs canucks @ 2.60
polymarket has the same moneyline line at:
kings @ 1.75 vs canucks @ 2.25
this is actually an arbable moneyline which doesnt happen very often but there is a lot of value to the canucks moneyline. hard to say if the kings will take the game seriously since it looks like they have clinched a playoff spot tonight. maybe they try to win for better seeding, but polymarket seems to have quite a different opinion on this game compared to the books.
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SF @ CIN Over 9.0 Total Runs -102
>>154223771
lots of sites out there you can line shop and you 100% lose money not doing it. they also show arbs (some make you pay though) and that does get you limited if you do it enough
highly doubt any prediction market is the sharp for any sport/prop
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i'm broken. i got my salary 5 days ago. 500 euros. paid 2 persons 500 each. lost the rest on the first day.
i lost 1500 more since.
first overs on freiburg celta , mainz strasbourg , shakhtar alkmaar . all 4+
3-0 , 2-0 since 15', 3-0
lost 1k.
put 400 on colorado avalanche calgary flames 4+ @1.60
about a week ago was 9-2. thought then this game doesn't have goals
i went to sleep at ... 00:30 cause i had to work the next day at my cart pushing job in the supermarket parking lot. no cap
at 5 am
avalanche started at 4:00
woke up to 0-0 1st period min 18.
then 1-0 .
1-0 first period.
2-0 2nd period.
put 200 over 4.5 @2.15 or sth . incl ot !
and over 3.5 @1.38 - 100 just to stay alive (in hindsight might've been just not worth it. and it's just fomo?)
and passes 10 mins when i get to work. 2-0 3rd period 10'.
f m l
min 18'. resigned with the loss
calgary flames red dot
2-1 .
AND they play with an empty net
so ofc with 2 mins left avalanche gonna score
but flames do.
calgary flames scores for 2-2 and you know what that means
i also win the over 4.5 cause it includes overtime and penalties
which means guaranteed.
hits 100% of the time
but the goal gets disallowed
a player is after the blue line
offside
goal var'd in hockey.
that's rare as a golden pepe
and then several other losses
yesterday got 7 bucks
all in river 1.60 when leading 0-1 racing
made 11.
toluca scores 0.5+ at ht. 1.33
i knew they play reserves but saw the stats at ht. scores, not win. 1-0 min 72, 90+8 joao pedro from cagliari 1-1 (P)
made 15.
and then all in canucks 2.55 before ot at ducks. cause i hate the ducks. and in ot had powerplay and scored with 9 seconds left
carried a huge momentum
next day G2 in cs vs gentle mates @1.75 , when losing the first map. won 1-2
then put on kazan minsk 5+ in hockey
67 to make 102
was 1-0 1st prd. 4-0 second. with an inferiority goal cause minsk took the gk to play 6 v 4 on pp at 3-0 with 40 secs left.
and 4-0 in third period no goal. they never took the gk
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so now the plan is this. i have one more reload of 50.
the plan is now.
never going all in
so whenever i put. 25 a day. not 25 a game. for ex for cl games
25.
and tomorrow 12
the last strike is 2
but i'll stay/be kept alive cause i got this BEAUTY of an account and my VIP status really shows it's weight, so i'm always getting 20 bucks here. 30 there.
10 bucks on barca
10 bucks on psg
change of plans
i'll do
10 bucks barca 5+ @3
just for fear of fomo
and the rest (40) on liv psg overs
4+ @2.05 -10
5+ @3.60 -10
6+ @6.60 - 10
7+ @12 -10
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>>154223944
i do believe you can use prediction markets like kalshi or pm for certain markets to know insider information, but not really on major league pro sports. for esports, which i know /bet/ isnt really meant for, pm and kalshi can show insider information.
lets look at this cs2 game starting in a couple hours:
CCT south america ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain
bet365 lines:
ALKA @ 1.22 vs HWGA @ 4.00
pm lines:
ALKA @ 1.69 vs HWGA @ 2.27
so this game has a potential arb return of (1/4)+(1/1.69) = 0.841... or almost 16%. but the books will never give you a return like that. when you see potential arb returns >10%, the game is more than likely going to be cancelled, but the traditional books and pm dont really close the line until like 5 minutes before the game starts. if you are willing to take the chance, HWGA shares are at 0.41cents on pm right now, when the game gets cancelled and the market gets resolved 50-50, your shares go up to 0.50, and you made free money for nothing. there is my free money hack for you. enjoy.
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>>154226647
good point on insiders using prediction markets for bets. since they have very little to no regulation that would be the sites those bets to avoid flags/limits
>>154226696
quick and easy on that
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Second half gonna explode with goals
Reback over 1.5 @1.62
And specially 2.5+ @2.95
And 7+ barca @4.85
Where do i got more money? I also had another bet on an over in saudi Arabia and got 60 back. Actually wrote about it but somehow lost in copy pasta
And still got 30 to end the day whatever happens ;)
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Don't tell me the 2nd half of the 2nd leg of quarterfinals between arne slut's liverpool with reigning champions PSG ends 0-0. I do not believe it. I actually just checked the score to see if they haven't scored until i post this. Twice
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>>154227506
Moises Ballesteros (CHC) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs +115
Dylan Beavers (BAL) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +800
Casey Schmitt (SF) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +570
Kevin Gausman (TOR) Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts +135
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Alkmaar shakhtar 3+ @1.78 is the play (according to the algorythm)
That 7+ @24 is winking at me
Tell me how this game doesn't end 5-2
You know alkmaar will score. Can shakhtar get 1? They can. Can az alkmaar get 2 in opening 15 mins? They sure can.
4-1
So overs
3+
4+
5+
>5+ is @5.45 btw
But lay the most on 3+ @1.78. yerr backbone 500 .
Hell, 3+ always simplify to "btts or 3+" . 1.44
And 4+ @2.90 - 500
5+ @5.45 - 500
6+ @11 - 500
7+ @24 - 500
I wish i had these money thou.
I have 40 ron.
I'm not gonna borrow or anything but i need to get money to land on this game these susceptible overs. I betted this game in the first leg. 3-0 shakhtar after 70th min one after the other. But in alkmaar gonna be different.
And it's dutchies, who you know play football vs shakhtar (ukrainian defence brazilian attack) young players on both sides. All or nothing
>5-2
Mark my words
This post might drop the odds until i deposit, but i hope there's still some value left, so go and make yourself sum fkin money
If i'd pick 2 goalscorers
Mijnans and obviously Troy Parrott
3.45 and 2.15
But i'm gonna teach a technique here
Player scores OR assists
2.30 and 1.75
For mijnans and parrott
And also all alkmaar team is here
Brazilians might also sneak one in
Alkmaar are getting 4 straight up. If not more.
Just think they need to overcome a 0-3 deficit. It's the perfect storm
Prepare your bankrolls
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Four strong weeks in a row. Much less confident this week, I'm only making quarter unit bets on each fight because this card sucks and is full of no-names.
UFC Winnipeg Saturday 4/18
>Siraj -265 vs Yannis
Yannis isn't very good on the mat. I think Siraj gets him down and likely taps him out or controls the fight and wins an easy decision.
>Castaneda -130 vs Vologdin
Vologdin had one of the craziest DWCS fights ever. Check it out if you have not seen it, amazing fight. He doesn't do a lot well besides jab and eat punches. I don't think Vologdin will win a UFC fight, guy is a damage sponge without great weapons or wrestling.
>Nascimento -192 vs Raposo
Raposo is extremely low volume, he just doesn't do enough to beat a decent fighter like Nascimento.
>Croden vs Zhelezniakova u2.5 +180
Croden hits hard but she's slow, and Zhelez has good hands but no ground game. I think this is a finish. Croden's wins are all by finish. Zhelez gets cut up and bloodied in all her fights, a doctor stoppage is very possible here.
>Barbosa by DEC +600 vs Buzukja
Everyone is glazing Barbosa for his power. Buzukja is durable, I don't agree with the -225 Barbosa KO line. I don't think Buzukja does enough to win, but I'd be surprised if he gets sparked as easily as the KO line indicates.
1/2
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>>154239607
>Moises +114 vs Young
I've been on the wrong side of Moises several times, so tail at your own risk. Young is live to KO Moises, but I like the submission upside of Moises to neutralize some of Young's wrestling and potentially reverse positions. Give me Moises at plus money.
>Herbert vs Nallo u2.5 -160
This is a fun fight. Nallo is all action, stay in the pocket and bang. I also don't trust his chin. Herbert has been violently KO'd a few times and is almost 37...someone gets heemed here.
>Burns +240 vs Mallott
I was late to this line, Burns was a much larger dog a couple days ago. Money has poured in on Burns, who has only lost to the elite guys at 170 over the last few years. He was beating JDM until he got KO'd late. There's a chance Burns is done and gets finished easy, but I'm willing to back the guy with a far stronger strength of schedule against a dude who gassed and quit against Neil Magny.
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Beats the world record of times a pig blows that cocksucking whistle in a match
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I might reopen a website page. Like it was romanianbettingtips . And gonna post must-bet hunches that hold significant value. For example, there's a guy on youtube, michael talks football, basically the guy doesn't have a life, only watches football. And he said Q'atar will have troubles at this world cup, said they are abysimal defending and will lose all 3 games (in embarassing fashion) . Even when he said he was being nice he predicted swiss winning by the 3 goals. 0-3. So he thinks it's gonna be higher. Maybe 0-6 ? Also he obviously believes Canada will win, and opening odds , i saw with Fortuna, 1.57 for the leaf's win. That's tremenedous value. And i'll put there on the website these picks. These locks. These ev+ bombs. EV++ (if you allow me some fifa joke).
Imagine alphonso davies will be there so a team at a different level and bookies have them ... 1.57
LOL
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nfl draft 2026
big 10 players drafted in the first round:
over 11.5 @ 2.41 (pinnacle)
under 11.5 @ 1.86 (bet365)
almost a 5% arb there. draft is next thursday. in my experience with arbing, when pinnacle has something as a heavy favorite vs a heavy dog, while 365 considers the same matchup an even split, pinnacle will be right, and the under 11.5 @ 1.86 sharp line will win 9 out of 10 times. i dont know much about college football and couldnt even name the 11-12 players expected to be drafted in the first round, but that is a really sharp line 365 is offering.
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ATL @ PHI Over 9.0 Total Runs -110
Jonathan Aranda (TB) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +680
Cam Schlittler (NYY) Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts -110
Boston Red Sox Moneyline -130
Matt Wallner (MIN) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +480
Eric Lauer (TOR) Over 15.5 Total Pitching Outs +100