Priced in

>>61925117
>>Regime wants no negotiations with US
Nice try moshi

>>61925169
How can an indefinite cut of 20-25% of global oil supply be priced in with like 16$ increase since start of 2026?

The mass of retards longing oil outweighs all that, they will be liquidated justly

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>>61925117
>regime says
What regime?

>>61925117
>War was being partially priced in already over the last weeks
>OPEC announced production increases
>As US is not putting boots on the ground, nobody thinks this war can last long
>Oil price isn't as inelastic anymore as it used to be. Stop living in the past
>There was a glut of oil already before this. It is providing a buffer for some time

>>61925117
I swear biz posters are stupid lol
>20% of the supply got cut off.
>Fridays open was $65
>Mondays (today) open was $75
65/75=86.6
14% increase.

>>61925300
Brent closed 73.20 and is currently at 77.40.
How is 4.20 a 20% increase?
Even the opening at 81.57 is only 11%.
Also the demand is very inelastic.

I am watching CNBC. They are downplaying the severity of everything. They seem very desperate to push this narrative. I could be wrong but it seems like cope. Everyone is going with the "nothing ever happens" narrative. I think the very real risks are being downplayed.

>>61925191
They literally just said that, it’s on the news.

>>61925241
>OPEC announced production increases
Is that the same OPEC that's getting blown the fuck up right now. I'm not sure it's up to them

>>61925241
>not putting boots on the ground
The also just said on the news that this is likely to happen now.

I am reading /biz/. They are upplaying the severity of everything. They seem very desperate to push this narrative. I could be wrong but it seems like cope. Everyone is going with the "happening" narrative. I think the very fake and gay risks are being upplayed.

>>61925401
Brent closed at 73 and just went to 80
Which is a 10% change.
the open was a 5% gap up
And then the market went up another 5% in 4 hours.

that's a 10% move up in FOUR hours. I swear the people here know nothing...

>>61925451
Then there's no risk or opportunity here meaning there's nothing to post about.

>>61925417
If China isn't retarded they'll stuff Iran full of free weapons and Iran blast those weapons all over the region. Like US can attack Russia via Ukraine, China can now attack US interests via Iran. It's a very comfy situation, if they're not retarded they won't let the war end

>>61925117
The toilet is mid clog sir.

>>61925417
I always wondered why no one is talking about the blown up tankers in the straight. Seems like cover up is real. No way US or any other military can defend the straight against Iran. On single drone-droppe handgrenade is enough to blow up an LNG Tanker. This thing is not over for at least a week. That means that 140m Barrels are taken out of circulation. The shit hits the fan when the first strategic oil reserves are empty

>>61925465
I suspect they're retarded. I mean it's kinda late for that. They could have saw this war coming and used Iran as their proxy. For both China and Russia this should come as a complete shock. The Venezuela situation as well, what did China do about that? This sends a pretty clear message to the rest of the world that China isn't a serious ally. They're just who you go to when nobody else wants to be your friend. If they were going to take Taiwan they could have had the US tied up in a total mess in the Middle East while they did it. But that's not what is happening.

Even if Iran doesn't hold for very long they could still seriously disrupt the energy market. That's what I'm worried about now.

>>61925117
just go long retard

>>61925221
The US, and by extension the West, control the overwhelming majority of the world's ready supply. Venezuela is no longer fighting the West or flaunting its rules, and Russia is currently falling on its sword and dying, so the only independent suppliers are the Iran/Iraq area, which is partially mitigated by the Saudis and UAE being West-aligned, and Indonesia.

In short, its priced in because fuck you, that's why. Forgetting that America is the World Protagonist is on you, not us.

How do you guys see this war lasting more than 2 months?
US doesn't have that many missiles to spare.
US won't start an invasion. That would be wildly unpopular, Trump is already one of the least supported US president in history and he needs for there not to be a Democrat sweep in the midterm elections.
US can't afford a full scale war right now.

>>61925522
>US won't start an invasion. That would be wildly unpopular
>Trump is already one of the least supported US president in history
Based on that logic there should be no war in Iran. The Republican party is neocon driven. The neocons are in control. Trump's inner circle are all neocons. They don't care about anything except getting their war. They got it. They are happy. Fuck the midterms as far as they are concerned.

>>61925534
A quick clean victory is what he wanted as that would have likely boosted his ratings

>>61925550
That's what they say every time. Every fucking time. I heard what was coming out of Pete Hegseth's mouth earlier. This isn't going to be a forever war. This isn't going to be another Iraq. But Trump says he's not afraid to "go long", he says "boots on the ground" are an option. The message he is sending is that it's going to take as long as it's going to take. These people are neocons. They sell the war on the premise that it will be easy to win. If it isn't they don't back down.

>>61925417
>I think the very real risks are being downplayed
Agreed. "Nothing ever happens" has become a crowded trade.

>>61925482
>kinda late for that
What do you mean late, it's been happening since day 1 of this war. Iran bombed a ton of NATO bases, you think China isn't interested in that? The only question is whether or not China is fully committed to this. They could be bombing those bases for years, forcing NATO to move more and more weapons to the middle of the desert so that they can shoot a 10k drone with a 10mil missile.
And China did supply Iran with a bunch of stuff between these two wars, let's see if they continue, they're trying to be sneaky. Not sure why though, EU isn't sneaky about giving weapons to Ukraine.
>>61925522
>he thinks US decides when it ends
If US doesn't do a land invasion, Iran can just keep bombing those NATO bases forever. Why stop

>>61925615
Well you had the supreme leader sitting in his house instead of hiding in a bunker when he had about a week's notice that the US was coming to fuck his shit right up. Now you have a situation where they're scrambling to rebuild their leadership. So how is Iran going to be a good proxy without leadership and organization?

>>61925117
>oil is only up 5%
scroll out retard oil is going up since december

>>61925117
priced in

>>61925300
He's talking about the oil that passes the Strait of Hormuz, not the current price action tard.

>>61925673
I'm fully aware of what he is talking about.
Read his post again:
>Still Oil price is going down. Merely up 5% from Friday. What the fuck is going on?!

>>61925704
You're right

>>61925481
BBC News is now reporting that ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Cat is out of the bag now.

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>>61925117
Wall street fat cats agreed to help dump while trump bombs iran.
Mostly because they know if Oil gets a green dildo then you can kiss your low CPI scores goodbye. Which then means wall street can kiss any hope of low rates goodbye.

That’s what this is ultimately about, FED rates.

should i go all into oil lads? seems like it should be pumping, but its not...also crypto is going up when it shoudln't be..clown world

>>61925906
It's not yet. That's the key. It's a bet on if this is going to keep going.

No more bullshit on CNBC. Iran says the strait is closed due to aids and any ship that passes through will be set on fire.

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>>61926068
HOLY FUUUCCKIN SHIIT MY LONGS ARE POOOOOOOOOMPING

>>61925117
Price increases would cover insurance premiums going up. If the premiums go up but the price doesn't go up transporting oil becomes unprofitable. This could exacerbate any shortages in the long term.

>>61925117
>>61925169
>>61925191

Literally nothing is priced in. VIX is 21 and oil barely closed at 72. Market thinks this is a nothingburger.

If you disagree buy 10k worth of VIX or USO calls April expiry and take the 7x. That’s all there is to it. Shits not in the price.

>>61926691
https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ports-shipping/war-risk-premiums-surge-as-hormuz-crisis-forces-rerouted-sailings-threatening-indias-trade/128933982?dt=2026-03-02

>>61925117
Based. Total westoid humiliation.

Let's make this perfectly clear.

https://k.sina.cn/article_1887344341_707e96d504001qa2g.html
Translation:
>According to vessel tracking platform TankerTrackers.com, more than 50 tankers remain in Iranian waters, 18 of which are loaded with crude oil and 37 are empty.

>Premiums are soaring.

But as said in the link here: >>61926796

>On Sunday, GIC Re issued notice of cancellation for its marine hull war risk cover, stating that the cover will cease from March 3. The insurer has drawn up a high-risk area that includes Pakistan waters, Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters/ports including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58 degree east, Iran and all other countries under sanction by the UN, the UK, the US or the EU, Sea of Azov and Black Sea waters, waters of Russia, Ukraine/ Belarus, India Ocean, Gulf of Aden, and Southern Red Sea.

>“In case any vessel passes through this area or calls any port located in this area or dry docked in any of these areas, it will be a breach of warranty,” GIC Re wrote in a circular issued on Sunday, adding that the breach of warranty cover will not be available in respect of all the seven zones mentioned in the high-risk area.

So if I get this right it didn't even matter that much that Iran actually attacked ships. The threat they made to do so going forward made it impossible to get insurance to pass through. So the strait is effectively closed not just by way of Iran's actions but because of the insurers. The market's optimism today was delusional. This news will spread.

>>61925534
It’s just a few airstrikes dude, it’s not that deep.

>>61926901
It won't take long for you to realize the economic damage done.

>>61926908
To them yeah, not over here. I’m just going to keep profiting from my oil tanker stocks in the meantime.

>>61926914
lol

lmao even

>>61925117
token not needed

>>61926893
Based.

>>61925522
Both Hegseth and Trump haven't ruled out boots on the ground

>>61926893
Yup, and like I said with the price increase covering the cost of insurance, if the price doesn't go up to compensate to the insurance even when the insurance is being issued, it won't be economically justifiable to take out a journey which purchases that insurance. A low price of oil will close the straight down until the price increases enough to justify running the blockade.

An unknown risk factor is also a refusal by crews to take those routes. It is unclear if there is any kind of danger pay, but I would imagine that workers might start demanding it tankers keep getting hit.

The price should be shooting up by a lot, but we psychologically in an end phase cycle of a bullmarket where people don't think bad things can happen. Rather than price responding to condition, conditions respond to price, so people will just act like "oh well I guess if the price didn't go up by that much it isn't a big deal" as the usefulness of a measuring stick (like GDP) is inversely correlated to how much focus actors place on it. If people are watching the oil price as a signal to determine how bad the war is going then the American government has reason to try to suppress the price for the same reason that it suppresses casualty figures. The price of oil right now is part of the propaganda. It is definitely going to wreak havoc eventually, but it isn't reacting because the reaction being known would negatively impact US foreign policy.

Instead of the price responding to the conditions, the conditions will respond to the price and keep the straight closed in practice even without Iran doing anything

>>61925117
>What the fuck is going on?!
World is in a economic recession.