Thread #62122963
Previous: >>62122157
>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
>Charts/Screeners/Data:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://finviz.com/
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/
>Live Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/
>Options:
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices
>Calendars:
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
>Boomer Investing:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
>Alternate Investmenting
https://brickfact.com/blog/guides/investing-in-lego
https://www.tresna.co.uk/blog/rarest-bmx-bikes.htm
https://nerdacity.co.uk/blog/essential-tips-for-funko-pop-collecting-a nd-investing
>Misc:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://bad-dragon.com
>Anons in trouble
https://www.crsgh.com/blog/object-stuck-in-your-rectum-why-prompt-medi cal-care-matters
https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/suicide-prevention
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>>62122963
What edition is this???
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The cause of this war is South Korea.
South Korea is famous for Samsung and K-pop.
Because South Korea smuggled strategic materials into Iran, Iran was able to acquire weapons of mass destruction, including biological weapons.
South Korean Firms Violate International Controls on Shipping Materials for WMDs to Iran and Syria
https://japan-forward.com/south-korean-firms-violate-international-con trols-on-shipping-materials-for-wmd s-to-iran-and-syria/
S. Korea should clearly explain fire-control radar incident
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181228/p2a/00m/0na/017000c
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Anthropic may use AMDs GPUs.
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>He didn't buy IREN
>He didn't buy GRRR
>He didn't buy DAVE
>He didn't buy RDDT
>He didn't buy PYPL
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>>62122965
This is the final edition of /smg/.
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> futures
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>>62122963
okay boys
how long do you think we stay trapped at spy 700, and how big is the pop off gonna be once we break through that resistance?
does spy ever go back down to 700, after that?
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>>62122979
>the raped edition
remember, rape isn't real. just a feminist conspiracy theory
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>>62122976
i believe companies can use multiple companies GPUs and TPUs. Anthropic buying AMD GPUs would be worth billions in revenue. it would also show that AMD can make a competitive product vs NVDA.
if AMD get Anthropic, they will have OpenAI and Meta also as major customers. AMD are worth less than 10% of NVDA today but maybe that is starting to change.
those are my thoughts on it. im open to feedback.
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>>62122963
>>62122967
janny, you will never be a woman, stay in /ptg/ where you belong edition
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>>62122994
>but muh CUDA
Anthropic has to be doing low level programming for optimization, they can't just abandon certain things like CUDA. Maybe for some things they're porting over the workload where it's economic. There's just a lot of friction beneath that headline. Like for example they might use AMD GPUs just for the web front end servers. The market woudlnt' understand that and would go into a frenzy and buy it up. But are they really moving infra compute to AMD, leaving CUDA behind? That'd be big if so
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>>62122999
btw
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>>62123010
so you're saying there's no further regarding that? because it's probably completely nothing in that case. they're just buying cheaper GPUs where it doesnt' matter as much like any other rational actor would
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if it weren't for rent, I'd have 5x more cash every month for discretionary spending
and I'd be on my way to becoming a millionaire
but I can only invest 15% of my income at the absolute most, and I do invest 10% every month as matter of required routine
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>>62123021
>if it weren't for rent, I'd have 5x more cash every month for discretionary spending
people dont' understand this enough, the difference between $1k and $2k rent isn't $1k, it's the difference between being able to save/invest $0 vs $1k a month. It applies to everything for poorfags. You might not make much, but if you can go from investing/saving $1k a month to $2k, you'e effectively doubled your long term portfolio worth even though you're only making or saving $1k more a month.
It is only for truly high earning people that this doesn't really matter.
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>>62123003
oh it's a bulbasaur
nice
love that pokemon
>>62123016
so you still have time to buy the dip on international
and anyway, vxus is not really a european etf
it's developed + emerging
and even developed is not just euro, though it is mostly euro
I am buying developed international and living laughing loving life. AVIV AVDV and SCHF. emerging markets are crap (other than china I guess) and china is also crap now. so developed is the way to go.
total world market is also sort of a meme. that's VT. if you want international I'd stick to developed honestly.
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So when is that bear market starting? I'm still good to keep buying LEAPS for another year or two, right?
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>>62123020
its legit just a rumor. Anthropic and AMD have not announced anything at all. i went and checked the twitter of the guy who was right about the Meta deal. then i posted the image here in /smg/.
if you can find out more def let us know.
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>>62123027
Yes, and a lot of people have their housing paid for them by their parents.
It's impossible to invest if you don't have any money left after necessary expenses. I only have 15% left for descretionary spending, and I only have that because I have a room mate.
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>>62123023
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KR changed the recipe for their frozen meatballs and I am not enjoying it
And I invested in a whole bag of them too...
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>>62123023
>I've been lame and boring my whole life just putting money into VTSAX. I have a sizable amount but feel I've missed out on so many gains. How do I break this habit ... being risk adverse sucks
vtsax is just VTI but mutual fund version
and VTI is very similar to voo in terms of 90% overlap
so there's nothing wrong with VTI. the S&P500 has been on a tear over the last 5 years. how have you missed out, in investing the biggest and best most growthy market and economy?
you could have gone VGT or QQQ or whatever to do even better, but VOO/VTI just had an amazing resiliency where tech stocks and mag7 died but the rotation saved the whole index. boglechads just laughing all the way to the bank. the diversification saved you. bigly
you got the best of both worlds. what is there to complain about?
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>>62123036
>Anon Roman republic happened because one king raped his general’s wife
that's just a violation of property rights. a crime against her husband
rookie mistake, that. Yes, not good at all, no. Not good at all.
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>>62123037
Yeah people just don't' really get it enough IMO, if you can save $1k a month normally, cutting $1k of expenses is like doubling your income.
There is a floor to what you can cut and no ceiling to what you can make though. But if you're making ~$60k/yr you gotta get on the ball with that stuff.
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>>62123001
CUDA is not as big of a deal as people think.
Like yes CUDA is the better mousetrap, better math homework, but that alone only gets you far.
Betamax was technically better than bluray, didn’t really do them much good.
The main problem is the fact that brute forcing how much memory you have just gets you more results than splitting hairs over memory protocols.
A Rocm GPU on the latest HBM will still run laps around a CUDA gpu on DDR.
That’s why OpenAI started the memory war in the first place.
It’s also why nvidia has crabbed while this memory frenzy has gone on. CUDA bulls and Memory Bulls are kind of at odds with each other.
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>>62123029
Yea I guess I should have done more homework. I did look into aviv and probably should have picked that. Seriously considering dumping the vxus even though I really shouldn't be moving my money that it is supposed to be parked. I just lost all confidence in it.
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>>62122984
Kek
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Just as I suspected... the recent price action really was from the FED market buying.
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>futures
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>>62123056
>Yea I guess I should have done more homework. I did look into aviv and probably should have picked that.
I had the same reaction
saw VEXC which is international ex china, and thought that was great. same for AVXC
turns out it's like half taiwan and south korea, which are themselves half AI companies
so "emerging markets ex china" is really just "AI ex us" which is fine, but not exactly what I was looking for.
gotta read the ingredients of the food you're buying
>Seriously considering dumping the vxus even though I really shouldn't be moving my money that it is supposed to be parked. I just lost all confidence in it.
VXUS might still be good though. looking back on AVXC and VEXC, they actually did well. I just didn't know what I was getting and didn't like the idea.
international stocks are almost all developed anyway, since emerging is such a small market cap in comparison. kind of like VOO and VTI are nearly the exact same cuz small caps just aren't that much compared to the S&P500
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imagine being me
>got into trading a couple years back
>lost some money at the start
>got better, lured into fake confidence
>was very long into liberation day
>got destroyed so hard, sold the bottom, then watched it recover spectacularly
>got so tilted i quit trading
>moved all money to savings account for fixed gains and put all money there
>watched how whole market basically doubled from april lows in a few months like a cuck
>by december last year i decided i had saved enough to give it a try again
>put money back into trading, thinking this time i was ready, this time it would be different
>non-stop crabbing for months
>got sorta desperate, proceeded to lose a hefty amount trying to play earnings just to get fucked
>iran shit happens, swings quickly turn into big losses
>ok i can just sell and switch to bear mode
>just so happened to be short up to the tits right into the taco tuesday where everything pumped to the moon
>"it's fine it'll dump again"
you know the rest of the story, my currency isn't even USD so if I add the devaluation of the dollar as well I just really feel like throwing up
so this is the second account i blew up and my second time quitting trading, even if i happen to miraculously 2x the meager amount left in my account it won't really mean shit so i may as well just use it to travel somewhere or something
i'll go back to the cuckchair, market will probably double now that i'm out, congrats to all of you who still have liquidity to partake of this
maybe i'll be back after orange man is out or if some big dump (like down 30%+) happens and i'll just buy some boomer shit like google and sit on it without ever selling, the lesson has been learned
today i told myself i wouldn't think about it but looked at the chart anyways and it was up again so i felt sad but i've been getting better at handling the existential despair
it sucks i'll be wasting like 9 months of my tradingview subscription but it is what it is
sorry for venting
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>>62123029
Yea
Gyaru bulbasur
>>62123071
I thought black rock
Is fed dumb?
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>>62123082
You know, losing money even in rising markets is statistically likely for the individual investor.
Just buy and hold, trading fewer securities than an index requires that you really know what you're doing.
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>>62123079
SEA is not too bad depending on platform. I had the same experience with ETFs for 'ex-China, ex-Japan' where in reality it's just TSMC and South Korea.
I managed to find ETFs for Phillapines, Malaysia and Indonesia but obviously it's a horrible market right now for them. Put that shit in Stockholm bro.
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>>62123054
>CUDA is not as big of a deal as people think.
I just meant that the man hours to switch to away from CUDA would indicate a much larger switch
I don't think CUDa is great but NVDAs long term moat has been CUDA. if anthropic was willing to forgo it and wholesale switch to AMD, yeah CALLS baby. but the headline doesn't indicate such unfortunately.
idk much about the specifics but hope you get my jists. if anthropic is buying AMD for cheap gpus for HR Stacies it doesn't mean much, if it's for R&D I'm full porting AMD calls into 2027. ya herd?
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>>62123071
Was this announced? Why are they buying? Is it just because Donny told them to?
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>>62123082
My brother in christ just stop fucking around. If you leave stuff alone then you'll be fine, it's selling when the loss is realized not holding a negative.
Everyone here might do degenerate gambling on stocks but only a complete retard goes beyond 5%. The rest is diversified trackers where if it hits zero then we all have bigger problems to worry about.
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been thinking the past few days what a dumb faggot I am.
>literally just "buy micron on the dip after earnings, sell the giga-rip afterwards"
Every single time it does this for the last year. I coulda 2xed and 2xed and 2xed just like that. And then flipped into the other one.
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>>62123100
AMD ROCm™ (Radeon Open Compute) is an open-source software stack for GPU-accelerated high-performance computing (HPC) and AI, designed to unlock performance from AMD Instinct™ accelerators and select Radeon™ GPUs. It provides tools, compilers, and libraries for developing AI models (like PyTorch) and HPC applications
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>>62123105
It’s almost as good.
Think of it like, nvidia has a patent on 2 + 2 = 4. So AMD have to make do with 2 + 1 +1 = 4.
A roundabout way of doing things, slightly compromising but not game ending.
The real strength of cuda is its ecosystem which was built over years of effort.
But that kind of doesn’t matter when AI companies can just shop for specific engineers.
>>62123094
>Manhours
You mean AI hours. Claude can get you set up on ROCm in a matter of minutes.
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>>62123091
would you earn more investing the cost of the house than you get from appreciation and not paying rent?
you mentioned paying for the house upfront. what about a mortgage instead? 20% down is 5x leverage on an asset that is very likely to grow in value. are your stock returns 5x the appreciation on a house?
and again, this is not a purely monetary decision. renting has problems that are not purely monetary, as does owning your own place.
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>>62123010
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wfYIMyS_dI
i'm not smart enough for your other conversation. i love you though babe. still wanna know what your favorite song is too.
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i was asleep while 67 was trading -_-'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f06QZCVUHg
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>>62123154
I made $97.40 today
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>>62123145
>>62123153
I said it as a joke silly.
But ngl you kinda sound like a nvidia baggie with your double freakout.
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Anyone else getting stressed out by all these green days? I'm full port VOO/AI but it's feeling like the jews are reeling us in for a massive rugpull
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why aren't you letting AI tell you what stocks to buy
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>>62122963
here is my Robinhood account,
what am i missing? how do i make a trade?
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>>62123129
>>62123105
ROCm is not as good. Far less flexible and every engineer will tell you how much of a pain in the ass it is to get working. Its getting better but up until a year and a half ago their own software engineers did not even get to touch their own MI300 samples to test ROCm on. It was basically an afterthought for AMD in datacenter for years whereas CUDA runs on basically every Nvidia card even the consumer ones. Right now most inference providers still default to Vulkan to run inference, but ROCm is finally getting better support as of last winter.
Anthropic is just very compute constrained, for both training and inference. The last part is imporant because they only make direct revenue on that. You cannot replace nvidia for training, its has the flexibility and first mover advantage still, but once the LLM is trained you can do inference on anything (its just a matter of operating margins, hell no one knows if TPU or Trainum is cheaper because google and amazon never released benchmarks).
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>>62123073
Is this nigga don’t think before taking an action? I mean fucking forget about the glass in eye thing.
How are you gonna clean all the tiny glasses off of the ground? How much time you gonna waste removing every little pieces.
How low iq is this dude? 80?
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>>62123184
In your heart of hearts, you know the market vibes are right
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>>62123165
ngl u sounded like this femme im about to pound, I have no Nvidia bags you were just being retarded and I caught you
>>62123180
>ROCm is not as good.
> You cannot replace nvidia for training,
that's exactly what i've been getting at. they can be buying AMD for non-critical compute stuff where the economics pan out, but the compute potential per dollar for NVDA is what's given it it's moat throughout this thing.
for that reason I assume the AMD thing is a nothingburger, but maybe the market hypes it up as 'ANTHROPIC SWITCHES TO AMD - NVDA IN SHAMBLES'.
I have no stake in either company
>>62123194
blackberry, but don't do any DD or this anon spergs out on you. just trust the plan
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>bought the dip
>it dipped more
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so whens the planned rugpull dear chaps
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>>62123201
WE ARE THE NAK MARINES AWOOOOOOOOOOO
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>>62123184
Maybe your vibes are wrong and you believe the wrong players have the cards?
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>>62123220
>I said in the same post you freaked out on that they were going to hire specific engineers for ROCm.
no I didn't
I have never freaked out about anything and still don't even know what ROCm is
get on my level
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So Intel is probably going to be something huge in the next few years, and it is probably going to over take AMD when China enslaves Taiwan. Even if you aren't betting on futures, you've a lot of AI buzzwords flying around it lately and elon blowing a fart in the general direction which is making shareholders jizz like crazy.
So perhaps it's worth buying the dip when earnings are revealed next week as there's a lot more being revealed in the coming weeks.
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>>62123180
>>62123205
Meta created PyTorch. Now that they have that amd deal, they have real incentive to improve ROCm support inside PyTorch. That makes ROCm more viable over time,and Anthropic and other companies looking for an alternative can benefit.
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>>62123205
>I assume the AMD thing is a nothingburger, but maybe the market hypes it up as 'ANTHROPIC SWITCHES TO AMD - NVDA IN SHAMBLES'
billions in potential revenue is not a nothingburger for AMD. that is why the stock is up today. its shocking that needs to be explained to an adult.
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>>62123251
AMD is a GPU vendor and has been for some time, if the market demand for GPUs increases, which it has been, and the economics pan out where the dollar per compute is favorable to AMD, companies will buy AMD. This is just cost cutting at the margins where the compute doesn't really matter.
It's shocking that needs to be explained otherwise to an adult.
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>>62123235
One would hope, but the deal was mostly for hardware; for next-generation AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs and 6th Gen EPYC CPUs for Meta's AI infrastructure over a multi-year period. I've yet to see a frontier model from the Chinese nor anyone else that was trained solely on Instinct MI300 series GPUs. From what I gather, Q1 and Q2 will largely be dominated by consumer sales of the AI Strix Halo PCs because of the openclaw craze. This enterprise stuff has yet to materialize the way it has historically for Nvidia, and largely has not for the past 6 months for Nvidia either because its stock is crabbing with no consumer boost of its own.
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>>62123213
Surely the Rape And Murder Entity will respect the ceasefire... Right?
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>>62123283
While dipping my nuggies in some farmers market dijon my aunt over heard our conversation and mentioned the market is forward looking and should have already priced in any excess demand from these AI companies. More specifically, she said "If this is truly something not baked into earnings or guidance the market may be overlookng it, and it's therefore worth looking at. But I'd want to see 10ks and EBITDA before speculating further. Honey, could you please pass the dijon as well?"
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is there a /bizraeli/ discord or irc channel?
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5 day performance:
MRVL +7%
AMD +16%
NVDA +8%
AVGO + 10%
MU +9%
SNDK +5%
WDC +5%
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>>62123135
>would you earn more investing the cost of the house than you get from appreciation and not paying rent?
>you mentioned paying for the house upfront. what about a mortgage instead? 20% down is 5x leverage on an asset that is very likely to grow in value. are your stock returns 5x the appreciation on a house?
>and again, this is not a purely monetary decision. renting has problems that are not purely monetary, as does owning your own place.
ben felix did a video on this
you should rent a smaller place, then take the extra money and invest in stocks
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>>62123288
/biz/ is not a 'ground floor' machine, it's a place people come to shitpost and hope others do that research for them so they can eventually bandwagon. if you have ground floor dd, you're inherently uncertain about it because the market hasn't validated you yet, and you come here to hype your bags as insurance against being wrong, or at best get a second look (which no one ever looks at because you weren't shilling enough). if you had absolute confidence, you'd keep it to yourself and accumulate as much as you could.
it never works out the way you're suggesting it, such is the nature of the beast. at best we have honest shills that have there baggie limit, or people sharing public info/alpha of stocks with market caps so large our influence doesn't matter
the best you can do it filter by small caps for metrics you like, like return on equity or something and read the quarterly statements
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>>62123295
Only tranny janny discords boss
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>>62123166
>Anyone else getting stressed out by all these green days? I'm full port VOO/AI but it's feeling like the jews are reeling us in for a massive rugpull
there could be volatility in the short term, but looking 12 months out, this kind of giga rally is very bullish
I've posted a few things here on exactly that topic. thought the same thing. "it can't be good to just keep going up right?" nope. it's actually very good. on a 12 month horizon anyway.
and any bumps along the way are just buy the dip opportunities
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>>62123304
why do the bison look more like tardigrades
boss?
>>62123307
hey you're that same retard. stop drawing such strong and confident conclusions from tea leaves. it's ok if you burn you're own portfolio, but I have to stop you from influencing others like that
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>>62123213
>so whens the planned rugpull dear chaps
probably in may, and chopsolidation until oct/nov
then we rally up like crazy again right before and after the election.
but only after we bust through 700 and blast off. then 700 is the new floor. probably
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>>62123304
This site is interesting cuz no one can monetize it, but we're just like 50-100 unique posters solving captchas and posting on an archaic image board. But there's no where else to go, Twitter/X has no community or anonymity, the temporal conversation flow here is nice, being able to respond to as many post as you want in a single post (vs the typical reddit/HN model of continuous nesting) is nice, etc. It gets a lot of things right but overall sucks and the it seems like traffic has ticked down a lot this year.
Any other site I feel like I'm being engagement baited or lured into some shit or it's too welcoming of complete retards/NPCs.
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>>62123311
and you're the same idiot who thinks nothing can ever be known, and looking at the past can't help you predict the future
you essentially believe science doesn't exist and evidence is meaningless
In other words, you're an idiot. Stop posting to me, and stop being so aggro with your shit advice I don't need or want. You're not as smart as you think you are. Your belief system is just epistemological nihilism.
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>>62123326
>and you're the same idiot who thinks nothing can ever be known
Lol, no, your methods just don't have any basis to support that they predict the future. My systems run on prediction so I need to ensure its ability to do so is robust. I'm just trying to help you and others reading when I point out that the assumptions you're making are completely baseless.
>epistemological nihilism
And you keep saying this, I can tell you really like the phrase. But ironically it's you doing this, not me, by clinging onto spurious correlations. I look for actual predictive value in my features, you are so far away from even beginning to do that. You look for patterns in tea leaves and extrapolate with undue confidence.
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>>62123348
thank you so much for picking on that, I was worried about such a succulent shitpost spoiling out in the open
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>>62123344
raising arizona and bad lieutenant new orleans are great movies. cotton club is fascinatingly and hilariously bad too.
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it's GOT to retest down here at some point...right?
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>>62123360
I'm betting it does, but you will go broke if you believe things like that. It could literally keep gapping up to $800, never revisit $700, and there's nothing you could do.
What has me thinking it will retrace is the volume, the rolling volume weighted average price in this pic is the golden line. It's still way down there. I think the question right now is can the market avoid to crab at these levels before it revisits.
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>>62123368
how do you like trading the vwap? what time frame are you using it mostly? i can see it would be useful on the daily to see the average price is way down there, but i could just eyeball the volume on SPY and reach a similar conclusion. mind dropping a favorite strat or how you use it? or a link to something to read?
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>>62123360
>it's GOT to retest down here at some point...right?
I think it could drop below 700
but we're gonna blast through 700 and then 700 will become the next floor
then we could have volatility and shitty sideways and down action all the way until oct/nov. That will be the bottom.
then it will rally like crazy
so yes, but we will still get the big may pump. then sell in may and go away
then bottom in october. then rally up like crazy after the election, for months
maybe go back to gap fill that gap, as a retest. Maybe!
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>>62123082
your investing strategy, or whatever happened there. Its not working, so stop doing it. Just buy VOO and VGT and make money.
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>>62123082
>sold the bottom, then watched it recover spectacularly
>got so tilted i quit trading
it is almost impossible to lose in the market just going long on decent/good stocks by just not losing to your own emotions when you see red lol
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>>62123374
>how do you like trading the vwap?
Just to be clear what the image was showing was 30d rolling VWAP, not session VWAP like it normally is. I personally don't really do manual discretionary trading, mostly botting or algotrading, since I'm an emotional trainwreck, but most my algos and stat analysis tends to find VWAP or at least volume a very significant and predictive feature. In my manual trading previously I'd notice some weird action around it but could never quite exploit it efficiently.
So I don't normally do charting but in times like this it can be useful to visualize the uncertainty the market has about where price should be. The current price only represents the bid and ask at a given step in time series we're walking through. Volume indicates the agreed upon fair price is much lower than current, so do the SMAs, and the current price is extended or dislocated from that significantly. These have to converge eventually. I maintain the belief that fair market price is unobservable phenoma that random walks around some latent unknowable price. What these indicators tell me right now is that the spread is wide between market price and agreed upon fair price, which indicates fragility or uncertainty. I would bet it mean reverts from here, and I think the battle is more between crabs and bears instead of bulls and bears right now.
I do not use the TradingView graphical indicators for prediction, just observance of current state for funsies. I have Type I diabetes, no money and lost my right foot in Gnam.
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>>62123384
>your investing strategy, or whatever happened there. Its not working, so stop doing it. Just buy VOO and VGT and make money.
yep
if your system is not working, just switch to something that does work. you have to live in reality
do you want to be "right" or do you want to make money.
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>>62123394
I agree, for me it was really hit or miss. I don't find much value in the idea of being a human interpreting numerical values on a screen at this point, everything is computer now. Let me apply the statistics and it can do whatever is best.
What I find more value in regarding the rolling VWAP and similar is over longer, human digestible timeframes. In the image I posted >>62123365, it's the golden line. You can see that despite SPY mooning in price, the VWAP has been negative or flat. To me that's super bearish. As a human I can make some decisions that would be impossibly difficult to program into a bot based on 30RVWAP and actual price dislocations, combined with a schizophrenic president and lingering war. There's just not enough data for this. And to me is where the discretionary touch should lie.
>>62123395
Thank you. I was an all league quarterback. My blood pressure is so high now my scalp bleeds and my ears ring, the libtard doctors can't figure out.
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Is this the top finally?
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>>62123360
Is everyone here too retarded to not see the major liquidity issues going on under the surface due to private credit at the regional banks.
Or are you all just coping?
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>>62123406
yes it's the top
>>62123413
>is everyone so retarded they don't know the room is getting warmer
come on anon
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>>62123413
you're still bargaining. also you're officially the craziest girl in /smg/, congratulations.
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>>62123413
hello spooky poster.
as far as private credit issues go, the amount of market cap tied up in that problem is way less than what was tied up in the GFC in 2008
it's like, 10x or 30x smaller problem
it is a problem. but it's not enough to cause a huge meltdown all on its own. it's nowhere close to GFC levels
but it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back, if there were many other problems. so I'll give you credit where credit is due. pun intended
have a nice day bro
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Bears WILL win
Jews WILL lose
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someone explain the double slit
you try and measure photons traveling and you basically fuck them up in the process of measuring them, and the nigger science man pops off explaining causes a different universe. do I have it right?
but fr can someone hash it out with me, how does it actually go? I am reluctant to look it up because I know it's always explained wrong
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>>62123442
You literally just have to be a permabull to win
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>>62123449
no lol this is the exact hippy stuff im talking about. I mean that in the double slit the observance mechanism actually fucks with the photons, like if you weren't there it wouldn't happen, but the normgroid interception is what you said so good job
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>>62123413
>too retarded to not see the major liquidity issues going on under the surface due to private credit at the regional banks.
thats been in place for 5 fucking years brainlet
>>62123386
nigga how are you clearly so smart but have no money. thanks for the explanation though
>>62123443
wavefunction collapses and we have no idea why it just does so we run with it. bazinga
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Did Lao Yang ever get his gravel?
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>>62123454
I was joking about being a broke one legged Vietnam vet with diabetes, but if that's the kinda person you need right now I'm all for it.
It's not just wave function collapse..... but that's the right keyword, let me get back to you. Whenever I look this shit up it's like two days of research to re-understand it with finality
>>62123462
This movie is so good and sad
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>>62123443
>someone explain the double slit
no one knows exactly what electrons are. They have both wave like and particle like properties depending on the conditions. There is no real world analogy of what an electron is, the best you can do is look at the equations. Tests degined to measure the particle like nature do that, and tests that measure the wave like nature mesure that. What makes information so muddle is the DEI education and science communicators who do not understand what they are talking about and make endless videos trying to explain what they do not understand for clicks and views and spread retardation. I recently watched a vid about the double slit experiment narrated by a yound PhD in quantum mechanics who had to make a followup vid explaining she misunderstood the experiment and was not trying to clarify it.
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>>62123471
>no one knows exactly what electrons are.
damn I was hooked here I was hoping you'd actually explain it. it is an elusive explanation indeed but once I get to the bottom of it I at least understand it doesn't imply physics is pawning off some weird gobbligook, it's just that the measurement of the double slit changes the outcome, but not in an unexpected way to laymen. Once you understand it, nothing is really that surprising IMHO.
Essentially it is the act of measurement instrument interference (not the presence of an observer, but an actual act of interference via measurement tools) that changes the results. But it's presented like the observation changes results. Because our high school teachers had 95 IQs
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>>62123454
>wavefunction collapses
the "collapse" has no affect on the electron, its just a word used to describe how the electron can be in/around an area but once you measure its location it was determined to be at some specific location instead of an general probablistic area described by the equation. There is no magic, humans are not smart enough to understand it yet, maybe in the future, maybe never. Its like trying to explain the black scholes options pricing model to your dog.
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>>62123482
>Its like trying to explain the black scholes options pricing model to your dog.
but BS is just temp diffusion PDE with a time term, it's not nearly as complicated as an empirical weirdo like double slit :(
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>>62123471
>>62123449
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Rape all babeposters
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>>62123480
>Because our high school teachers had 95 IQs
Feynman was interviewed by some random dude who asked Feynman 'what is an electron' and Feynman tried to explain that he cant really explain to him because the reporter did not understand the basic (advanced) concepts of physics. I went through this in my college physics courses. First year an electron is (simple). Second year well really an electron is (more complicated). Third year we don't really know but here are the equations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron
And that is just a bit about the electron, it goes way deeper with gluons, quarks, binding energies to the point where no one understands what the fuck is going on.
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>>62123443
Ok here is the real explanation.
Electrons “observation” is not “looking at them” the ACT of observation itself means that you HAVE TO manipulate the particles, basically you “touched them” when you began observing them.
Hence why “observation” and “no observation” have different effect on electrons.
That’s it.
It’s not woowoo, it’s not conciseness, it’s nothing like that.
The only issue is that scientists are not good science communicators. And the gap of explanation to masses is filled with scam artists like that Indian scammer
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>>62123443
Alright, when you send a beam of electrons through two slits, it produces an interference pattern on the wall on the other side. Fine, no big deal. The electrons are interfering with each other.
Alright, so let's send one through at a time. That'll produce two distinct lines, right? Wrong, still interfering. Well what is it interfering with? Itself, apparently. This is proof that the electron does not behave like a distinct particle until the moment it needs to manifest as a distinct point on the wall.
Great, so let's put a detector on one of those slits to detect when an electron goes through it. What happens now? The interference pattern disappears because we are forcing the manifestation of the electron as a point right there at the slit by perturbing it with the detector.
Weird thing though is that doing this produces two distinct lines even though the detector is only on one of the slits. It's as if some of them manifested at the other slit even though they weren't detected there. Very strange etc etc.
Electrons aren't real, basically. The universe takes whatever and electron is and makes it manifest at a point but only when it needs to interact with something.
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>>62123346
based
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>>62123490
>we don't really know
you do better than most
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>>62123494
>>62123497
ok, before reading either of these I just wanna ask, do either of you have that /sci/ copypasta about trump making the best electricity? it was hilarious
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>>62123440
So to be clear you don't intuitively think the price action looks messed up and also don't think that these things are concerning?
I continue to see outlier signals relating to liquidity stress and this seems to me the only rational explanation for this pumping into apocalyptic news.
Again this has nothing to why Mr Bobo (Sr.) will be making his appearance sooner rather than later, but it is certainly a cause for bobo the younger to make an appearance shortly.
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>>62123517
taken with overnight funding spike and repo, seems fishy
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>>62123494
>Electrons “observation” is not “looking at them” the ACT of observation itself means that you HAVE TO manipulate the particles, basically you “touched them” when you began observing them.
I have only gotten this far in what you're writing but 100% this is the shit im talking about that's overlooked, the act of observance itself influence outcome but it's not because of 'consiouness' or some weird shit like that, because observance implies measurement and the measurement tools effect outcome. like a paddle in a river to measure velocity would
thank you, I am VISIBLY exhaling right now and relaxing, moisturizing, in my lane.
I read the rest. can you get one level deeper to point why the observation casues this and circle it back to the alleged mysticism of the double slit
>>62123497
>Alright, when you send a beam of electrons through two slits, it produces an interference pattern on the wall on the other side. Fine, no big deal.
yes I am fully keeping up, there is a wave pattern with them
>the electron does not behave like a distinct particle until the moment it needs to manifest as a distinct point on the wall. Great, so let's put a detector on one of those slits to detect when an electron goes through it. What happens now? The interference pattern disappears because we are forcing the manifestation of the electron as a point right there at the slit by perturbing it with the detector. Weird thing though is that doing this produces two distinct lines even though the detector is only on one of the slits. It's as if some of them manifested at the other slit even though they weren't detected there. Very strange etc etc.
Electrons aren't real, basically. The universe takes whatever and electron is and makes it manifest at a point but only when it needs to interact with something.
I am now backtracking and lost again
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>>62123413
>major liquidity issues going on under the surface due to private credit at the regional banks.
oh look another fake financial game that is going to implode oh no that's like the third one this year. I wonder if the big money is going to bail out big money so they can make big money? They put out these stories as part of the scam " oh a problem, I guess we gotta close down some accounts of some poor people and take their money to save the system again." You get used it.
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this is the best movie I've ever seen. please observe it
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Dixieland, our time is nigh
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this lady has a good channel on electromagnetism, start at oldest. it was a fun watch, really good history of discovery.
https://www.youtube.com/@Kathy_Loves_Physics/videos
financially speaking, i want a sciencetist gf to explain things to me
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>>62123523
>isn't this just an artifact of the observation mechanisms we have though?
We do not really know what an electron is, but scientist create different ways of testing/measuring under certain conditions, which affect the outcome. But, how do you design a test to test a characteristic you do not understand that may not have any real world analogy you can understand? How would design a test for that? There are some good youtube channels to get into some of the details of various subjects and dayum that stuff is really strange and extremely complicated.
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Is PYPL a cheapy? seems like it to me.
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>>62123531
That's probably the basis of where it gets carried away into NPCs saying 'consciousness influences outcome', when it's really measurement apparatus, but yeah I just wish this something I could remember without having to re-dive down a rabit hole every few years. I really wish I had majored in physics instead of math, I can really see why quant funds hire physicist since it's all about modeling stuff
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Yo, markets finna boutta dump to zero as soon as the ceasefire expires. I sold my oil positions last Friday, but I'm going to get back into USO calls tomorrow. Multiple sources are saying the US is gearing up for another air campaign.
In other news, today I had the most obvious Mossad operative come and try to taint my grocery order. Got his license plate though, lol. Should have minded your own business, Arie.
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>>62123546
“Learn the Greeks” is options trading slang. It means: understand the key risk variables that control how an option’s price moves.
The “Greeks” are just sensitivities—how much the option price changes when something else changes.
The main ones:
Delta (Δ) – how much the option price moves when the stock moves
If delta = 0.5, the option gains about $0.50 when the stock goes up $1
Also loosely reflects probability of finishing in the money
Gamma (Γ) – how fast delta changes when the stock moves
High gamma = your position can flip from safe to risky very quickly
Theta (Θ) – time decay
How much value the option loses per day just from time passing
Buyers hate theta, sellers benefit from it
Vega (ν) – sensitivity to implied volatility
If volatility rises, options get more expensive (vega positive positions benefit)
Rho (ρ) – sensitivity to interest rates
Usually minor unless you’re dealing with longer-term options
What people actually mean when they say it:
They’re telling you:
Stop thinking “this stock will go up, so I’ll buy calls” and start thinking in terms of risk exposure.
Because with options, you can be:
right on direction but still lose money (theta decay)
wrong on volatility and get crushed (vega)
exposed to sudden acceleration (gamma)
In practical terms:
“Learn the Greeks” =
Understand what is actually driving your P&L, not just your prediction.
If you want, I can break this down into how people actually use Greeks in real trades (like why beginners get wrecked by theta or IV crush).
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>>62123542
>the fed doesn't purchase US equities like SPX
Fed can buy whatever it wants either directly or obfuscate what they buy/sell through their member banks or "facilities" and don't think the fed reports all of their buys/sells. I know the what the public is told, but you got to realize reality and how thoroughly the financial system is controlled and manipulated. If you watch the vids of former FL congresmman Alan Grayson grill Ben Bernanke and Bernake and his staff just flat out refuse to answer questions you might get the feeling there is bad sushi in china town
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>>62123554
does learning this actually help anyone though? and are they getting these 'greeks' from their broker typically, or deriving it themselves?
something like Heston model at least assumes stochastic vol
I just don't know what the fuck people even mean when they say this
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Why do (You) think the market has more room to run?
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>>62123521
Ok so observation used by basically shining a light through the slit.
Electrons trying to pass through, and it bumps into photons (which are always move straight unless you disturb them)
This “disturbance” is measured and is evidance of electrons moving through the slit that light is passing though.
That’s the only way to measure electrons passing though.
However; when we don’t measure it, we are not “observing” it, and so it behaves differently.
It’s not that it’s self aware or some shit, it’s that our act of measurement equals manipulation.
Maybe in the future we have a less invasive way of measurements and we can put this bullshit woowoo to rest.
And no, I don’t have that meme about trump
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>>62123552
I sold a covered call on NBIS for 8.14 strike 114. Next day stock ripped and kept ripping now the premium is 48.87, how would knowing the greeks help me avoid losing out on making more money? I am making money on the trade, I just had no idea the price was set to rip the next day.
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>>62123562
>However; when we don’t measure it, we are not “observing” it, and so it behaves differently.
Thank you and exactly but where does it go from here
the observance and thus measurement changes it how? I don't know the fuck the explanation of this shit isn't standardized
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>>62123537
(I am the same guy as >>62123562
>>62123494
I don’t know why my id keep changing)
The entire quantum mysticism came from one Indian scammer asshole, Deepak Chopra.
Why? Because scientists retards didn’t have good science communicator to explain all this to lay people.
But then again, no one gonna care either.
The ONLY way they gonna care, is to woowoo the shit out of everything hence why popular mechanics and scientific American gone to shit
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>>62123560
Its just a movie, but how many people can appreciate how well the actors portray the undertones and back stabbing like this one? The first meeting is almost exactly like the second one with Tuld. In the first meeting it was already decided to dump the MBS. I remember the 2005-2009 era well, I was also taking a lot of accounting classes at the time watched all the people freaking out live on tv.
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>>62123564
to be frank i dont really know how you are up on selling covered calls when the stock rips. are you netting the shares you used, if you used shares as collateral? because you gains are limited in a covered call situation with shares. youll be asked to sell them for $114 at expiration or buy it back before then.
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>>62123567
>>62123569
Theyre not indicators, theyre risk measurements quantified
JFC biz is stupid today
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>>62123567
>>62123569
I use IV and theta alot.
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>>62123511
>So to be clear you don't intuitively think the price action looks messed up
no, I do think it looks messed up
>and also don't think that these things are concerning?
and also yes, I thought it was concerning.
the thing is though, in history when you see these insane giga retard pumps, that is a bullish signal
at least for 12 months later.
sometimes there is also volatility within that 12 month period, but it always ends up positive
it could even be -15% 6 months later, then become +14% at 12 months.
wild wild stuff.
So it's bullish, but we could be in for a wild ride, until we get to the finish line
and that's exactly in line with the midterm year prediction too. we will see a big rally in oct/nov and especially after the election.
>I continue to see outlier signals relating to liquidity stress and this seems to me the only rational explanation for this pumping into apocalyptic news.
um yeah, the retard giga pump could have been caused by that. but it doesn't really change anything. a lot of the giga pumps were caused by fed intervention to save a market, during a crash. so that's sort of baked in already right?
>Again this has nothing to why Mr Bobo (Sr.) will be making his appearance sooner rather than later, but it is certainly a cause for bobo the younger to make an appearance shortly.
yeah it could be both. big volatility before november, then huge rally after the election. so we will see both bear and bull by the end of 12 months from now. Meaning april of next year. plenty of time for a gigantic rally at november 2026 to april 2027 to wipe out all the losses.
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>>62123566
It doesn't have to be light
It can be for instance a simple force scale, if you can imagine the push by electrostatic attraction/repulsion by the electron could go through a multiplier or whatever and give you a reading on the screen indicating it gave a push.
But then if the electron pushes on the scale, so too does the scale push on the electron. That's Newton's 3rd law. A push on the electron will then alter its path.
It's not such a stretch for you to imagine that a 1kg block lying on the table pushes with 1kg (10N) of force on the table, thus the table pushes the same on the block keeping it stationary.
It's the same principle and you'll find that most physics principles are actually consistent with each other and easy to understand if you start from humble beginnings
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>>62123561
Based, if you never capitulate, you're never really wrong, just unreally wrong
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>>62123566
Well it doesn’t bump intro electrons, right? It gonna move differently in a wave form. When light appears to count and it mashed into electrons, they behave like particles.
As to why, we don’t know why, but I assume it’s like a non Newtonian “fluid” like an oobleck.
Look it up. Basically I think it just change its form based on interaction with the environment
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>>62123572
>to be frank i dont really know how you are up on selling covered calls
I bought the stock for $28.32. Price was about $112ish when I decided to unload for $114 + 8.19. It was not doing much at that time. I do not care about the stock gettting called, there are other options I want to play with with money. Its just I did not think it would rip so hard just after I sold the contract.
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>>62123575
Like usual, when you point a finger there are three pointing back. Greeks are not 'risk measurees' and you have disconnect from reality thinking so. Greeks are model derived values from the BS PDE, which is a modified temperature equation. All that actually exist in reality is the price of the option, 'greeks' are just model derived values in an attempt to explain IV, time decay and other variables. Black-Scholes is notoriously bad in that it assumes constant volatility, but it's what most use for whatever reason.
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>>62123583
>Based, if you never capitulate, you're never really wrong, just unreally wrong
sold all my shorts a little before we hit 699
I do not need the pain of what happens when we blast through the resistance at 700
I can always buy more shorts, when the stock market is done with the wacko giga pump
and in reality, I think I'm done with shorting
not that I could have known there would be a once in a lifetime insane giga retard pump. no one predicted that. So I guess lesson learned. markets can be irrational and do crazy things, and this market is very very irrational. just didn't think it would switch on a dime and go psycho bull mode for 10 days straight
thanks for listening to my ted talk
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>>62123584
>Look it up. Basically I think it just change its form based on interaction with the environment
what's weird is they can behave as both a particle and a wave at the same time
you can have an electron or maybe a photon or whatever, trapped in a node, at a certain wavelength. Or multiple of wavelength. lambda, lamda times 2, etc. Just like they teach in high school physics
but it's quantized. so it's both described by a characteristic length, a wave length, and also it's a dicrete single chunk of energy.
so there are some experiments where it is both a particle and a wave at the same time, not just switching between the two. SCIENCE!
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>>62123488
Checked
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>>62123596
>sell your ccs at 30 delta if you don't have any other idea of a price target
I usually sell just OTM or ITM to take the premium and just move on to another. I go for the most premium. I dont care about the stock for calls or puts (this is just for extra money and not part of my long term investments). The premiums seem to be really small and not worth it ( in my opinon) when you get too far OTM. If I like the stock and its down hard I sell deep ITM puts to try to get the stock a low low price and if assinged early I just flip to an ITM CC. I just try to extract as much premium as possible.
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>>62123603
landscape looks like my hometown
In elementary I was always curious why the germans, an otherwise reasonable people, were absolutely hellbent on destroying jews
I found a mein kämpf copy in my local library and left town shortly afterward as a young man. a few years went by and I was broke, not worried about overdue library fees. now I have this fucking book on my shelf that everyone judges me over and I can't return, and yeah having read it I also fucking love hitler
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>>62123618
You sound upset
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>>62123618
the ((German banksters)) were Jews, yes, and read this
https://www.aniccaresearch.tech/blog/the-alchemy-of-hashpower-part-i
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>>62123606
Isnt that exactly what Black-scholes is for though? Proabilities? Predictions are just probabilities. I think constant price is pretty relative. Like a stock moving up and down 1% over a year is a "constant price" but if you zoom in it looks choppy. options IV measures like, 30 or 45 days into the future? IV is forward looking I know that for sure. There is some nuance between actual volatility, which passes through delta/gamma, and IV. I really think it depends on the time horizon.
I dont know. black scholes just seems very reliable and consistent with itself. Its the standard. What else is there? what more can you tell me about this stuff?
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>>62123614
>ok then dont come here and cry when the stock rips and you get assigned
Not crying, just curious what I could have "seen" regarding the stock rip I did not see coming. Last two weeks I made about $3,500 in premiums and I dont care about the getting called or assinged, because I am only playing with stocks I like. With all the talk about AI bubble, AI data centers being cancelled, higher energy prices I though NBIS and CRWV prices would hold steady or decline some so I sold CC for both NBIS and CRWV. I even started unloading PLTR, but I seemed to have missed the MFST dip.
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>>62123579
Hmm if you say so.
Personally my favorite indicator is just watching the tape move. It tells me more than anything else.
Given the tight desperation pumping I have been seeing and the volume, its a vein popping grip squeezing actions throat -
its basically looked like a quad witching hour Friday for all 12 of these days.
This tells me there are very serious and immediate problems, and tapping emergency stuff confirms.
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>>62123624
I am sorry I am growing tired and weary, drop the keyword 'NIGGER SCHOLES' all caps next market session and I'll pick up on it. It assumes value at current price with unchanging vol, at any rate the 'greeks' are a spook, what really matters is the vol surface where the axis are strike, tenor and IV. Greeks are just one interpretation of this through a PDE. There is no 'standard' there is just market pricing of options and whatever comes closest empirically for some given period of time is best.
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>>62123628
rest easy weary wizard
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get real close for the family photo everybody I want this one to turn out good
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>>62123638
I have lorded over this thread with the best intentions and beers have been plentiful. Make no mistake, as neither have I.
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>>62123640
I'm not scoops just a new anon.
I vibe code the visuals, I knew what to prompt when I made it to get what I wanted out of it. Took maybe 2 hours to make that one - it treats each poster as a particle and lets them "crystallize" preferentially next to anons they were quoting the most
I toyed with the idea of extracting key words, tickers, etc, but it's too noisy. It's still on my mind but not likely to be compelling enough to deal with the noise
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>>62123642
damn lol
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>>62123638
Hey, I see me! Mom, I'm famous!!
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>>62123656
I meant the spam poster is scoops not you. It used to be a pretty regular thing where someone would post the most common words of the previous thread in a word cloud. I can’t ever get one to work thoughever. It was always nice to see what anons were talking about. “Inflation” “TSLA” “niggers” “dump” etc.
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>>62123638
before I kill myself in a final act of soduku, let me ask. is my big nig circle my own post, or responses to my post include? Maybe I'm just a master baiter who can squeeze out another day or two for years on end, a child of the game as one might say. let god cast some forgiving rays on my sorrowful neck as otherwise I am ready for the guillotine that reality won't bless me with
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>>62123668
Yeah it is. The supply shock will lead to demand destruction. The oil futures are unironically the only thing pricing that in.
A few more weeks into all the Asian / Oceania force majeure, those effected sectors price will start to reflect reality. Then knock on effects from the disruption will hit the US.
Good luck timing it though.
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>>62123689
your circle is big because you have the most posts. the circle radius starts at 16, grows by 5 for every new post. this happens for everybody's circle in a stream as the thread gets read into the simulator. responses to your posts are represented by invisible rubber bands connecting your circle with the ones next to you, here's what it looks like with the bands visible. a simulator lets the circles jiggle and re-arrange physically, with these forces in place, and what emerges is what you see
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>>62123706
man I just bodied everyone, pic rel was specialialty when I played gen 3/4 competitive on smogon, so get ready for I guess. I am going to body and forcefully take over this low traffic site to get the bottom f the barrel n-word users to a better place. we're all in a bad place now and on sinking ship
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>>62123706
My circle is centrally located amongst the smg forces which is based and powerful