Thread #108273626
70% of desk jobs will be wiped out in less than 5 years Anonymous 03/02/26(Mon)00:43:30 No.108273626 [Reply]▶
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No more cushy jobs for you anymore.
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>>108273626
As an investor, i've been thinking...
As a corporate exec, how would you keep the profits up if none of the consumers have jobs to get their spending money?
Can we make a new circular economy where AIs get paid for their work and they can spend it on upgrades or something?
Economy would just collapse if we don't figure out how to replace these unemployed consumers with something else.
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>>108273850
Exactly, now you're understanding. By the time the existing junion and mid level devs move to senior, we're not going to need any devs at all. The current crop is all we need. The last white collar workers will be a handful of 180 IQ researchers, everyone else will be useless.
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>>108273859
Nobody has answers to any of this. This tech is moving way faster than meatbag governments can process. Low IQ people are feeling smug, not realizing that many millions of people losing their job is going to fuck the entire system if we don't figure something out.
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>>108273850
The vast majority of new grad cs students are getting jobs. Pay is also increasing relative to other majors
>>108273955
You probably aren’t doing anything serious
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>>108273978
>You probably aren’t doing anything serious
redditors also say this but they're all junior equivalents that don't realize anything serious is just a bunch of smaller easily solvable problems put together.
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>>108274060
that nigger actually believed the hype, anon
hes a faggot.
dont enable him.
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>>108273989
>just a bunch of smaller easily solvable problems put together.
that's not how a big project is, though. maybe just the codebases i've worked with have been written by retards, but you typically can't implement shit or even fix a bug without changing the output of some other functionality, so it ultimately requires congruent, deliberate planning of logic trees that i don't think autocomplete on steroids is really capable of
i think people get a bit too excited for AI's coding capabilities because they see it whip up simple apps in a microsecond. i just can't see it keeping up when you need to make something really fucking complicated, vast and arbitrary. the further you get into a project like that, the harder it is to keep adding new shit without completing imploding the codebase. until AI basically asks you "what is the use case for this?" and refuses to implement a feature, it's not going to really be a senior engineer
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>>108274124
It’s retarded when people say this. It’s like pretended prosaic writing was never the hard part of being a novelist. Suddenly everyone wants to pretend like writing code well in and of itself wasn’t a hard technical skill that was the single biggest barrier to entry in an otherwise disproportionately income to effort industry. Any 5 year old can design a system. You got paid because you could implement it using the hard technical skill of writing computer code well. That barrier is almost completely gone.
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>>108274124
Most programming is "Taco Bell" programming so yes, writing that sort of code is really not difficult at all compared to trying to figure out why the docs don't square with the behavior you're observing.
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>>108274277
>It’s like pretended prosaic writing was never the hard part of being a novelist
No, it's like saying that operating a typewriter or a word process was never the hard part of being novelist.
>You got paid because you could implement it using the hard technical skill of writing computer code well
Is this what unemployed zoomers really think? Well, no, you dumb nigger, the "hard technical skill" was always by far the least important and most transferable part of the job. You can teach a monkey to "write code" given enough time and repetition (look at India if you don't believe me).
The actually difficult part was (and still is) understanding the business problem you're trying to solve, the constraints (technical and otherwise) that you'll be working under, the people who will be using w/e system you're building and designing a solution that can fit all of the above, while, at the same time, not requiring a billion dollars and a decade to ship. So, in that sense, AI tooling changes fucking nothing in my job - the only difference is, now, once my design if finished, I can hand (parts of) the implementation off to Claude instead of some dumb fuck little Timmy we just hired.
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>>108273859
That's why companies are shifting to rich clients.
Have you seen the prices for rich people stuff? They far exceed any of the actual money used to produce the good or service. They just make it look fancy and slap a giant price tag on it.
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>>108273626
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>>108274770
>Ultra Mobile
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>>108274796
kek
>>108274770
faggots everywhere
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>>108273626
>70% of desk jobs will be wiped out in less than 5 years
haha joke's on you
i didn't have a job
oh wait
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>>108273626
>>108273859
and no one should complain when these unemployed people destroy machines for the sake of human existence against AI
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>>108273626
you changed up your op image because people called it out.
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>>108273859
Free market is self correcting system. Robot companies and the whole supply chain for them from mining to electricity to manufacturing still needs money, but it’s less then the consumer economy. Basically the slower the transition happens the worse it will be for the average person because markets will shift from consumer goods to AI. Companies selling things to people will go bankrupt while companies selling things to the military sector or AI companies will thrive and eat up more of the raw resources like land and electricity. It will be net negative for GDP and the economy because no matter how much AI you produce it will still be less then the consumer economy which is basically 90% of the economy. By consumer economy I don’t mean just people buying shit but also people making shit for people to buy, so not just fat Americans but also the Chinese making the things.
Anyway if the transition is slow you will see rising costs of living, higher unemployment and safety nets drying up, businesses selling food, clothing or anything like that losing incomes until mass starvation starts to happen, not from food shortages but because nobody can pay. If the transition happens fast then the masses who still hold power over the corporations and government will see in front of them that AI is bad and will do a mass revolt, using violence to either destroy AI for a while or force socialist into government who will nationalise AI and give UBI.
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>>108273642
Saving it in what form tho? Dollars and stocks will become useless if AGI happens.
The whole economy will stop working because the people who own the AGI will simply use it to fulfill their own needs and you can starve and die for all they care.
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>>108275134
>Your 401k is now worthless
>Infinite money for defense contractors now worthless
>20 years of equity you had in your home gone
Anon, if what you said happens, there WILL be cascading effects, one of which is mass killings
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>>108273859
>He thinks the execs won’t get replaced as well.
Shareholders are going to replace mr. McMillions with AI agents that are 500k per year max.
They’ll be awfully fancy and pricey for an AI but faaaar cheaper than the usual ceo.
Then we’ll get to the really fun part were the shareholders are institutions mostly running on bots, then just bots.
It will not be “flip the switch and skynet turns us all into paperclips in 24 hours” it will be a slow depressing loss of ground year by year as they march through our institutions.
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>>108273626
>be stemfag
>work in biolab
Why should I care for this?
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>>108274124
"software engineering" is by and large just stitching together already existing solutions or matching known solutions to problems that have been solved countless times already
look at your coworkers, I see mine and these people are npcs, nobody is writing novel code or new designs in coporate, only old boys clubbers and a handful of people they actually like will retain their SWE jobs by 2030
drop your ego and pivot now if you want to have a chance at surviving AI and not being culled with the rest of the useless eaters, preferably to something that can't just be done on a computer
the sooner you start, the better your chances, get to it
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>>108273626
>>108273872
>>108273838
>Soon (TM)
Nigga AI can’t replace even simple junior engineers like electronic engineers, circuit designers, and FPGA engineers, so what “replacing 70% of office workers” are those copium junkies even talking about? lol
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>>108275558
>software engineering" is by and large just stitching together already existing solutions or matching known solutions to problems that have been solved countless times already
99% of engineering work is that, pretty much. Software or not.
In fact, software probably takes more novel approaches since making mistakes is way less costly than making a mistake on per example a chip, a car, a plane, etc.
Most engineering work is iterating on iterations and updating old designs to the latest technology.
The same way that software uses hardware improvements as a crutch, hardware uses manufacturing technology improvements as a way to "improve" their products without actually having to take the risk of redesigning them. It is why everyone freaks out about the end of Moore's law and all that.
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>>108275683
That’s true. Once we put a PCB board into mass production (it was manufactured in China) with a schematic error that only showed up after some time. We had to recall the entire batch and send to the factory a new revision. The mistake ended up costing us around $20k.
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>>108273626
Let me fix that, ~90% of cushy jobs are going to go away when the economically corrects itself. The tiny minority that are going to be only for those who are well-connected. If you are not part of the club or cliche you are out.
>>108273859
That's neat part, it doesn't. Short-term profits are only thing that matters. It doesn't matter it blows up in several years. We are going back to feudalism with thunderous applause. F
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>>108273626
>best ai models fail 97% of time at simple tasks
>ai takeover in 5 years
what would you do with a brain if you had one?
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cope in this thread is hilarious
im genuinely considering killing myself because I have no skills outside of swe/sysadmin
Even if AI development stops today, Claude opus is good enough to turn most SWEing jobs into "prompt engineers", imagine spending the rest of life asking chatbots to change fucking variable names and write tests lmao, that's the best possible case scenario for a dumbfuck like me, and also highly unlikely given that AI companies are still getting billion dollar investments
Only thing that gives me a slither of hope is the slim possibility that Musk isn't joking about UHI, but also highly unlikely, why would they share their wealth with us? We're going to be worse off than literal serfs since atleast serfs we're still useful to the economy.
Most of all I'm just sad that Software development is dead, so many cool projects I'll never do because AI can just do it in minutes. Fuck my life.
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>>108273642
I’ve been doing similar. Paid off all my student loan debt in 19 and have spend 2020-25 saving money. I’m near 100k in cash and another 150k in retirement. If things keep going well I’ll be able to get a house and newer used car soon.
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>>108273626
>>108273642
i've pivoted from codemonkey to "architect" for this reason alone. i hate my job but i need to start saving up.
thank fuck i own my home
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>>108275603
>>108275649
Such as?
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>>108273859
The massive fuckloads of deflation this would cause is life threatening to the governments ability to make debt payments so they'll just print an ungodly amount of money and everyone will get covid tier stimulus checks or better to give companies an excuse to keep expanding their now limitless labor pool. I wouldn't be too worried
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>>108276242
>imagine spending the rest of life asking chatbots to change fucking variable names and write tests lmao
As opposed to what exactly? Changing variable names through sed and copying and pasting test cases from generic templates?
>>108276513
Anyone who's not a complete retard should have been pivoting from "codemonkey" a few years after graduating college at the latest.
Even if there was no AI, if you legitimately have no skills other than writing code, you'd never be able to compete with indians and fresh grads who are willing to do the same thing for 1/3rd of the money.
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>>108275134
Anon, if AGI happens then either it's going to kill all of us or it's going to restructure our society into gay luxury space communism, so there's no real way/point to plan for that shit. Instead you should be planning for the crash that would happen if AGI never turns up and we're left with expensive server racks that do fuck all.
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>>108276547
NTA but basically anything that's not text heavy like coding (aka most of engineering). Take my field for example, embedded systems
Electronics design
Circuit board layout
Deciding stackup, calculating thermal margins, controlled impedance, gating low power sections, calculating everything from basic power disposition to current density simulations and other FEM simulations, EM field simulations, antenna matching simulations, etc etc etc
Talking to PCB fabs about their shitty PCB machines from the 90s and tolerances, and their manufacturing capabilities. Oh no they changed the vias without telling you!
Interacting with the mechanical team who are making the die for the plastic enclosure, getting them the step file and tolerances
The real question is, why do software people think everything can be done by writing text. Either in the form of emails or as code? Are you guys really so sheltered that you don't know text is a very small part of the world? I just don't understand how are software people so oblivious to this.
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>>108276643
>as an "architect" i now just make high level decisions and deal with allocating people to projects
As you should be. People with experience and skills can get much more shit done when directing and delegating instead of going hands on with every little problem.
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>>108273642
>>108276497
>hoarding cash
Lol enjoy your toy paper when it gets inflated into nothing. 100k used to mean you could live like a king, now it's what, two years of living expenses in any major city?
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>>108277326
What people aren't realizing is AI is better at coding than other tasks... right now. Because it is made by programmers, and that is where the bulk of the effort has gone. But it's just a matter of applying the tech to other jobs, including yours. It's literally OVER for you by 2030 at the absolute latest.
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>>108273626
I literally don't care. I've made enough money coding and managing highly distributed systems and being on call 24x7 that going back to fixing printers, crawling under desks to unplug and plug back in monitors, and kicking a fax machine a few times a day would be a breath of fresh air at this point.
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>>108277518
>>108277504
You guys are cargo cultists and just incredibly underexposed to how the actual world works. There is no other way i can explain your thinking.
What i told to its just a part of my job. The other part is physical. Probing stuff with oscilloscopes, logic analyser, using the VNA to tune the antenna or some analog filter. Good luck having LLM do this shit.
There are tons and tons of jobs that has nothing to do with text writing. You're probably software guys so text writing is probably your "work", but that's not the case with most engineering fields.
The CNC operator, civil engineer, mechanical engineer, draftsman, chemical engineer, machinist etc are never going to be replaced unless you make robots cheaper than humans (who also have sense of touch, smell and vision btw, in real-time at 60FPS minimum). Oh and btw all the guys i listed before are using LLMs as we speak to boost their productivity as nature intended
Also i won't let you guys steal the credit for the invention or utility provided by non LLM AI tools. Anything that LLM cannot do, you guys cannot use to claim "see LLMs are so great"
Tl;dr engineer desk jobs aren't text based. The only people who are going to lose their jobs are paper pushers and glorified typists
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>>108277518
holy cargo cultist
you do realize llms suck at something as basic as fucking addition to such an extent the query gets deferred to a calculator agentic-style, right?
the tech is just not suitable for certain tasks
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>>108273626
At the rate my company is adopting AI, I have at least 3 years. Our CTO just changed her "No AI whatsoever" policy last year and is absolutely in love with, and praising Microsoft copilot like the dumb bitch she is.
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>>108277326
AI can absolutely trounce humans in board layout optimization and everything you listed because it has been doing that for a decade now lol... all the tools used for this are machine learning dominated. nobody does this stuff by hand.
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>>108277518
No, it's better at coding because with coding there's an easy way to tell whether the answer is right or wrong (does it pass tests or not). Look up RLVR. The vast majority of AI improvements over the past year+ have come from this
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>>108277518
>>108277988
It's not better at coding. What you are revealing is that you are not knowledgeable about coding. This phenomenon is known as the Gell-Mann amnesia effect.
So when it spits out some shit code, you do not realize it is shit code because you don't know shit code from good code.
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>>108273626
Heh, by that time, Claude will be so advanced, it will be able to become MY boss and lead my business. I will be employed by a boss who does everything for me AND leaves me with 100% of the pay (-API costs).
Heh. Heh heh.
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>>108278161
Wrong. There are very clear differences between models in terms of how often they produce usable results and how much work is needed to bring it up from "works" to "actually good" / "how I would have written it myself"
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>>108278211
>>108278229
Fundamentally if you want to specify what a program must do, you use a programming language. You do not use the incredibly ambiguous language of English and then hope that the autocomplete bot chooses the correct Stackoverflow / Github to plagiarise for you, with errors.
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In five years everyone (almost at least) will realize that AI isn't AI and is useless and even dangerous in unskilled hands. Raw skills and even manual coding will rise again and this retarded era of vibe coding will end.
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>>108278248
>You do not use the incredibly ambiguous language of English and then hope that the autocomplete bot chooses the correct Stackoverflow / Github to plagiarise for you, with errors
Why not? You can just try it, and if the AI spits out garbage, delete it and write it yourself. It does produce useful output a good fraction of the time on refactoring tasks that are simple but would be tedious / time consuming to do by hand.
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>>108278171
99% is a bit high. There were many programmers, that were absolutely capable enough to do a simple refactor, or implement some simple spec and now you don't need them so much. They did provide real value, even if the job was pedestrian, someone had to do it.
But desu I might also not be in the best position, I was always more of an all-rounder, I was able to finish projects but I don't have any specialized knowledge in anything.
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>>108278258
Yeah, I'm sure productivity tech will move backwards for the first time in human history. These are the takes we subject ourselves to on /g/, jfc.
>>108278494
And millions of people losing their adult daycare job is not something anyone is prepared for.
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>>108278258
if theses models even survive these 5 years.
here's your daily reminder that every single "thinking" or "reasoning" model is operating at a huge loss, and that's not even considering training and research costs.
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>>108278303
That is literally how LLMs work. Educate yourself.
>>108278430
I have tried dozens of times, hoping the latest and greatest LLMs may finally be useful. They fail badly every time.
It could be though that I'm not asking about Python and about some trivial thing that was posted on Stackoverflow 1000 times already.
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>>108277937
Wrong
Auto routers are a dead end. Even the ones made by altium, cadence, or whatever the fuck EDA software nips use are garbage that no one used. Machine augumented component placement is also a dead end, no software can do it as well as a human
And wrong again, machines have not been doing this because they are simply too bad at it
Why did you post all falsehoods? Did you expect no one to call you out?
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>>108279097
wrong
>>108279105
wrong
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>>108279097
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>>108274770
>>108274778
>Musk said
I'm tired of you retards
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>>108279097
>I have tried dozens of times, hoping the latest and greatest LLMs may finally be useful. They fail badly every time.
It could be though that I'm not asking about Python and about some trivial thing that was posted on Stackoverflow 1000 times already.
try using a real model's api in a proper ide. I can one shot convert anything I have written to assembly, golang, or c.
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>>108274077
I wish it was true bros, but it just isn't
it'll be really funny the next couple of years
it'll be like musk's mars mission in 2016 and the famouse robotaxis of 2017, and the 2019 hyperloop
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>>108276547
Anythibg where you deal with lots of ambiguity. Aside from being text based, AI is good at coding because of the results of code being predictable if you understand the code.
Take my field per example: analog ic design. You could have two identical circuits yet have one working perfectly and the other not working at all depending on the transistor manufacturing process you are working with on each circuit. Also, the smaller the trabsistor size, the more the results deviate from ideal calculations because of tons of physical effects. The only way to be effective at designing the circuits is to actually understand them and have the intuition to know what could be causing things to not work, which LLMs are not acapable of doing since they don't actually understand anything. They can suggest the "by the book" approach (which will always be outdated) but as soon as things go wrong they are completely useless.
Also, current AI needs a ton of data for training, and programming is one of the few tasks where there's data at that scale readily available. Most white collar technical fields are either much smaller or have way less public info going around and knowledge is mostly tribal and stored inside of the worker's brains instead of being properly documented anywhere.
Plus most jobs are not even worth replacing. In mechanical or electrical engineering companies per example, the main costs in both time and momey are the manufacturing and logistics. It isn't as worth it to spend billions on automating the engineers compared to software companies.
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>>108278803
>>108279708
the whole economy is a farce anyway.
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>>108276261
>OP is really delusional enough to think he is getting fully automated luxury communism
communism no bueno
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>>108279135
>>108279163
>um, you're wrong. you just are, okay? no I can't explain why, luddite!
>>108279202
>you're holding the AI wrong
k, it's no good to me then. let me know when they make real AI that works without careful handholding and can be trusted not to make disastrous fuckups constantly
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>>108279276
But AI is not good at coding because it does not know how to deal with ambiguity in English prompts. You people keep saying it's good at coding - yet we aren't seeing any improvement in software, it's actually getting worse.
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>>108273925
>Low IQ people are feeling smug, not realizing that many millions of people losing their job is going to fuck the entire system if we don't figure something out.
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There are just some crackpot conspiracy theorists who believe that tech companies hired millions of people to do absolutely nothing over the 2010s, all to fool investors with "growth", and now they're encouraged to fire these people and say it's because AI can do their job.
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>faggots give me a hard time for going into the military to learn CS while they go to school
>rack up a ton of savings over one enlistment, certmax, highest level clearance, free college degree, direct pipeline into internship through military
>first real job is 140k, can contract hop forever without taking a pay cut within insulated job environment free of pajeets
if only you retards had the same desire to maintain defense as you do tranny apps
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>>108273626
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>>108279097
>I have tried dozens of times, hoping the latest and greatest LLMs may finally be useful. They fail badly every time.
>It could be though that I'm not asking about Python and about some trivial thing that was posted on Stackoverflow 1000 times already.
I get decent results with MiniMax M2.5 (which is not by any means a top tier model) in OpenCode, working on a custom Honu-style macro system for Rust. AFAIK nobody has built something like this before (except me, but the two previous versions aren't public).
It will still absolutely fall over if you give it tasks that are too hard. I started out with trivial stuff like "fix all the warnings", or tedious refactorings like this:
>I have a bunch of functions that parse some input and return a parsed value T and the remaining input as a SyntaxSlice. Some of these return (T, SyntaxSlice), while others return (SyntaxSlice, T). Please standardize these so they all return (T, SyntaxSlice). If you see a function that returns (SyntaxSlice, SyntaxSlice), figure out which one is the parsed result and which is the leftover input, and put the parsed result first.
I do give it harder tasks too, but for those it's 50/50 whether it produces something useful or completely fucks up.
It also helps tremendously if you tell it how to build and run the tests (either in the prompt or in AGENTS.md) so if it screws up the initial output, it can fix it on its own.
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>>108273626
fix controller not working in sandbox on bottles flatpak
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Uh oh employeesisters... science says AI is getting smarter faster...
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>ITT anons fail to understand basic science
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>>108280234
>hired millions of people to do absolutely nothing
i wouldn't say absolutely nothing there are all sorts of jobs that require people to do mundane shit that any outsider looking in would consider it doing absolutely nothing but the mundane tasks have to get done
>to fool investors with "growth".
yeah this happens all time they wouldn't do it if it didn't work in their favor and they'll cut the fat when its time nothing new here
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>>108281537
> Soon (TM)
I’m still waiting for 20 GHz desktop CPUs that were promised us 40 years go.
Where are they? Processor progress has jumped so much over the last years! Neural nets just like desktop PC processors stopped growing exponentially in clock speeds and overall performance.
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>>108276242
I mean, until people can just tell the ai exactly what video game they want and the Ai just makes exactly that then you can still be a video game programmer? How far are we from AI being able to just program whatever game anyone wants, the whole thing?