Thread #1489493
Anonymous
This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. 02/15/26(Sun)17:52:07 No.1489493
This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. 02/15/26(Sun)17:52:07 No.1489493
This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. Anonymous 02/15/26(Sun)17:52:07 No.1489493 [Reply]▶
File: TRUMPS RECESSION RATE INVERSION TRIGGER.jpg (118.8 KB)
118.8 KB JPG
The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading toward recession is a polarizing one.
The labor market has essentially stagnated with very few jobs being added on a monthly basis. Job openings have dropped to the lowest level since the post-pandemic period. Government and consumer debt levels are continuing to climb and affordability has been a hot topic for years.
One signal, however, indicates a recession might be closer than we realize.
The shape of the Treasury yield curve often provides clues as to which way the economy might be heading. The long end of the curve is more influenced by what's going on in the economy. At a high level, rates tend to rise when the economy is in good shape and fall when conditions look questionable. The short end of the curve is highly influenced by the current Fed Funds rate.
History shows that when the difference between the 10-year yield and the 3-month yield turns negative, it triggers a recession watch. In other words, short-term rates are probably set too high for conditions and that could lead to an economic slowdown or even a full-blown recession.
When that spread turns positive again, the recession clock starts. At this point, the Fed has probably started lowering rates, but not quickly enough to avoid a downturn.
It turns out that the pattern of this Treasury yield turning negative and then positive has been a reliable recession predictor.
For the past four recessions, the 10-year/3-month yield spread turned positive just before a recession officially started.
That spread just recently flipped from negative to positive again.
Does that mean a recession is imminent right now? Not necessarily, but it's not a good sign either. Sometimes, a recession can happen immediately, as it did during the tech bubble. Back in 1991, however, it took more than a year before a recession began.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/14/signal-triggered-before-last -4-recessions-again/
48 RepliesView Thread
Showing all 48 replies.>>
According to the Trump regime, population is decreasing from all these criminals being deported, and white people not reproducing as much, and so 50K New jobs a month is the new 150K new jobs a month. And those 50K jobs are in this new fangled high-tech AI.
>>
>>
>>1489507
And they 131,000 they reported in January of 2026 is probably a bullshit inflated number:
https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/stocks-wall-street-us-jobs-number-fed-r ate-cuts/
No one is believing their lies anymore
>>
>>
>>
>>1489534
>>Out of the tens of thousands of analysts why should anyone care about these two?
Out of tens of thousands of election officials, you seem to only pay attention to the two that pretend voter fraud is a thing
Why is it good in that situation but bad in this one?
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>1489706
And that reliable signal of recession is backed by terrible job data for the past year, skyrocketing business bankruptcies, corporate layoffs and household credit card debt being maxed out.
These are all signs that support a major economic downturn.
Even 2025's holiday retail sales were lower than expected.
>>
>>
>>
>>1489674
MAGAts hang themselves on their own petard, due to supporting a traitorous orange retard
>We
Hi, jeet shill. 0.02 cents have been deposited into your account. Trump values your hard work.
>reality still doesn't give a fuck about your feelings, miggers
The Trumptard-triggering threads will continue until opinions improve.
>>
>>
>>1489883
Good luck. Damage has already been done. The recession has been ongoing for months now. Its just that various billionaire jews have been propping up the stock market (their assets) using various shell games (AI) but normal Americans have been feeling the recession for a while.
>>
>>
>>1489887
>>1489986
The quote from Hamlet, and subsequent colloquialism, is "hoist with his own petard" not "hung with his own petard".
A petard was a medieval explosive siege device and to be hoist by it was to be thrown up into the air. If you are hoist by your own petard, your bomb went off in your face. Today you learned!
To be or not to be (a retard), that is the question.
>>
>>
>>
>>1490212
Indeed that was tough. And due to inflation the geniuses that run my blue city raised taxes at the same time.
Now they're spending money dumping concrete in the street trying to make it impossible to drive anywhere. I'm fairly certain they're simply using old mafia tactics to launder stolen tax dollars.
The "we're not Trump" platform isn't good policy.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>1490337
Sounds like a national emergency to me!
I hope there's some kind of Act trump could use to give himself emergency powers to save us all!
For those of you worried, don't be. I'm sure that if there is such an act, all it takes is a dual resolution from congress to cancel out its declaration.
Checked and balanced, mate!
>>
>>
>>
is it really true that everyone knew two quarters in the red was a "recession",
but then biden had two quarters in the red,
so the definition of recession was changed to "there is no accepted working definition of recession"?
>>
>>1490342
Not true, because both are true. I know that breaks the minds of people who need their world compartmentalized and binary, so I'll try to rephrase it for you.
"The most commonly accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth"
The confusion you registered, sincere or not, comes from journalists trying to make complex economic theory palatable for idiots skimming headlines, coupled with their editor's/owner's biases.
>>
>>1490340
They tank the economy so their Jewish buddies can buy everything for cheap. This is what happened in the lead up to WW2. Theres a reason the Germans targeted Jews; they'd made life miserable for the German population so they could buy all the businesses and real estate.
Seems like thats whats happening this time too.
>>
>>1490342
No. Always been the definition
Problem is the K shaped economy is now the new normal, so the billionaires grow their assets (stock market) while everyone else suffers increased costs and flat wages (rent, groceries, utilities.)
This creates a false positive; the GDP looks good while 99% of the population are suffering a pseudo-recession.
>>
>>
>>1490338
There's a bunch of stuff you can do to mitgate recessions, the problem is trump already did them in order to cook the books to pretend there isn't a recession.
He did it during his first term too which is why the original trump recession biden inherited hit harder than it should have.
>>
>>1490373
>When Biden is in charge it's Trumps recession which Biden merely inherited, and when Trump's in charge it's Trump's recession
Got it, thanks for clearing that up for us.
Do me a favor and try something?
Write down something you say, replace the names that trigger your biases with "Person 1" and "Person 2", forget about it for a week come back and see if you still agree with it.
you might surprise yourself
>>
>>1490367
You meant false negative, as in "false, there is no recession" (when there actually is one).
A false positive would be "true, there is a recession" (when there actually wasn't)
You got confused because the false gdp has positive growth. Today you learned!
>>
>>
>>
>>1490583
>Still unwilling to remove the browns so that job prospects improve for actual Americans
Call us when you're willing to talk about it in good faith. Until then, we continue voting MAGA because nobody else will delete_brown.exe.
>>
>>1490583
>you were wrong about zion don!
i was? he is a boomer that supports israel, and a ton of really rich jews hate his guts.
would you say that open borders for america is a goal of the zionists, or is it a distraction and illegal aliens are not a big deal
>>