Thread #529595559
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US OFFICIALS ARE NOW SKEPTICAL THAT REGIME CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN IRAN - REUTERS 03/02/26(Mon)03:25:04 No.529595559
US OFFICIALS ARE NOW SKEPTICAL THAT REGIME CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN IRAN - REUTERS 03/02/26(Mon)03:25:04 No.529595559
US OFFICIALS ARE NOW SKEPTICAL THAT REGIME CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN IRAN - REUTERS Anonymous 03/02/26(Mon)03:25:04 No.529595559 [Reply]▶
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CITE LACK OF DEFECTIONS OF KEY IRGC MEMBERS AND NO CIVIL UNREST/PROTESTS AS EVIDENCE THAT THE REGIME WILL STAY INTACT
>Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, two sources said.
>One U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
>The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate U.S. intelligence agency which noted that there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
>U.S. officials have also debated the extent to which Khamenei's death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capacities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.
>Following the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy and a key ally, spoke several times with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, raising questions about the extent to which the administration would support his installment should Iran's government fall, two officials said.
>But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.
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>>529595559
They seem to be trying to fuck up.
They had their rebels do the rebellion weeks early and now they are all likely dead or jailed.
Anyone who would have organically joined likely joined while they thought something was happening.
Now all that's left is the people who will not join any rebellions.
Plus your bombing them now so they will tend to band together against the outsiders
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>>529595559
>CITE LACK OF DEFECTIONS OF KEY IRGC MEMBERS AND NO CIVIL UNREST/PROTESTS AS EVIDENCE THAT THE REGIME WILL STAY INTACT
and golly gee we've also know shown them that the U.S. is completely untrust worthy and unless you have nuclear weapons like Best Korea you are absolutely subject to getting bombed whenever the zogUSA feels like it
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>But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.
The designated opposition puppet for Venezuela was dropped by Trump in favor of a local puppet, that's not a problem.
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Are there really fully grown adults in positions of power that unironically thought they just kill one old guy and they win the game instantly for Iran?
Did they not consider maybe they just get someone else to replace him?
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>>529597769
>>529597897
A stable Iran would fight back. This isn't fighting back though. It's throwing a tantrum.
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>>529595559
>>The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate U.S. intelligence agency which noted that there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
Get fucked shills confirmed no major support for current regime
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>>529595559
Why the fuck would you, as an IRGC member, capitulate to this? You would KNOW that you're either going to get the Nuremberg ball-breaking treatment, the CIA waterboarding treatment, or the public humiliation treatment. Probably all 3.
You think the jews are just gonna bury the hatchet and let bygones be bygones for IRGC members? Hahahaha
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>>529595719
remember Afghanistan?
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>>529598643
No, there is not anyone that thinks that. News agencies constantly make shit like this up to sell papers. Like 90% of all news media out there is this sort of speculative bullshit created by a board of editors.
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What Iran needs to do is:
Blow up Bahrain and UAE's oil and gas sectors, but not their electricity grids.
Blow up Jordan's parliament and electricity grid.
If KSA or UAE reacts aggressively, blow up their water desalination plants.
Target US and UK military assets in South Cyprus.
Iran needs to focus their efforts on this. Focusing on Israel and US bases is a massive waste of resources and lacks leverage.
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>>529597897
Look at the strike against their nuclear facilities last year. They offered only token retaliation, because it made sense to de-escalate rather than escalate a fight you can't possibly hope to win.
Now they're not just picking that fight, but also dragging more and more bystanders into that fight and stacking the deck more and more against them. You behave like this when you don't care about the outcome, because there's no tomorrow.
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>>529595559
People that thought Iran would immediately collapse after taking out the supreme leader are retarded. That's not how their system works. And now what was probably expected to be a 1-2 day thing is now 4 weeks or more. Big fuckup.
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>>529595559
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The Iranian conclusion from this might be
>We didn't want nukes
>We tried everything to prove this
>We made an agreement that should have shown everyone this (JCPOA)
>The US broke the agreement
>The US bombs us no matter what we agree to, up to and including murdering our leadership
>This was never about nukes, they just want us poor and ruined like every other country they touch
>There's nothing to gain from talking, and nothing to lose from fighting
>Whoever takes leadership needs to be fucking hardcore because he will be dodging murderbots literally 24/7
>If the US could have knocked us over with a color revolution, they would have
>If the US could hit us harder than they did, they would have
>Countries around us hosting US weapons and spy bullshit that they use to murder our clerics need to understand that there's a physical cost to doing that.
Maybe some of the countries they blasted say to the US 'hey love u guys, love ur money, but this is uhhh too hard, I can't do it, please gtfo' and they now have a face saving reason to tell the US to fuck off, which their general public would probably be happy with.
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>>529595559
hezbollah tried the same strategy but theyre dead and defeated. houthis tried the same strategy but theyre dead and defeated too.
one nice thing about hardliners is they dont surrender when defeated so you get easy kills.
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>>529600587
the last round of US demands was to basically demilitarize the whole country by disarming all their conventional missiles. It may as well have been the same approach as a year ago when they bombed them under the guise of negotiations, so why would they ever want to negotiate again
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>>529595559
>sponsor fake protests as evidence of a desire for change
>launch an expensive invasion on the premise that the people want change
>surprised that actually there was no real support for change
>turns out everyone really hates israel
the jews have really kiked themselves into a corner the last decade, absolute disregard for their 6000+ years of persecution, the retards actually think that expulsion #1057 was the last one and that it'll never happen again.
this time the hatred is global, it will be 109 country and 1 planet.
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>>529600876
Whenever someone's planning a genocide, the first thing they do is 'try to get their guns away from them'.
The Iranians probably believe that if they'd actually capitulated and given up their missiles, they would have gotten it worse.
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>>529596204
Kike. Iran is attacking more vunerable targets to make sure the vassals feel the pain and the counter defenses get dispersed across the region instead of concentrated. US law also ensures that they will always be less defended than israel's defensive infrastructure.
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>>529596099
They’re stupid. We weren’t in the area when they decided to sperg out. We were in the Caribbean after Venezuela situation. We didn’t move in until we had an actual military presence near Iraq which takes time
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Just going to point this out now: This is like day 2 of this. We have four more weeks of munitions minimum.
That said, the number of deaths we're going to cause won't even be half of what the government did to their own citizens just a month or two ago.
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>>529601444
>This "war" is pointless if there are no boots on the ground.
Lmao. Tell that to the crippled Hezbollah after they got their cock and balls off B*lgarian. All your country can do is whine and lose at counter strike.
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>>529595559
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Holy shit bros is something happening....
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>>529596204
Low I.Q. take. Iran isn’t “sperging” out at all. They aren’t doing the 12-day war strategy of unleashing hell since they know that this time it’s for keeps. They are playing the Fabian tune of trying to draw this out as long as possible. They know one thing is for certain, nobody in the U.S. actually wants to go on indefinitely. And neither does Trump. There’s no public support for this and even Trump is lukewarm on a drawn-out conflict. So the Iranians hit here and then hit there. A few hours later, over there. Maybe in UAE, maybe in Jordan, maybe in Iraq, maybe in Israel, maybe against a naval unit. An important tower, an oil refinery, an electrical grid, a major population center. Sporadic, unpredictable, but constant and continual. The goal is to force the native populations of those involved to clamor for this madness to stop. Which, if it does, leaves the Iranian regime in power. They hold the cards as they have more will to continue that the U.S. Only boots on the ground could kill this regime for good and realistically that’s not going to happen.
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>>529600849
>Both Hezbollah and Houthis shooting rockets at Israel
Lmao nice "defeat" retard
Afghans are even starting to be sympathetic to Iran despite being enemies
You turned all of the middle east into Iranian sympathizers
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>>529601899
Tell that to Japan
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>>529601980
Which gemstone ring would the glorious leader have worn to call for a 'strategic' chimpout? Beryl? Amethyst? Maybe a rose diamond? Please, they're just launching rockets wildly while they shit their diapers in impotent rage.
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>>529600187
So you’re mad that she’s currently in charge of U.S. Intelligence.
That’s a potentially funny scenario: Generals taking Israeli intelligence and also taking whatever Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard feed them.
Dunno, gas prices didn’t jump like I thought. Maybe the Trump regime is genuinely retarded and bad at everything it does.
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>>529602272
So the goal is to dismantle a decentralized network of guerrilla cells that build their own drones and missiles? These guys are the ones that will be the last ones fighting if there is ground invasion.
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>>529601537
Dawg nobody cares if authoritarian regimes kill their own people. That’s your biggest fucking problem, Jew. Same thing at home, nobody cares if niggers kill niggers, etc. It’s called racialism, tribalism. It is the most basic human thing, and Jews hate it when other groups stand by it.
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>>529602532
Nobody cares about those regimes killing their own people... except y'know, those people. Kind of the whole point of us crippling the leadership and military. We're not conquering, we're getting their people the alley-oop.
Probably what's going to happen in Cuba as well, since they're also an oppressed people.
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>>529602880
The shahs family has only run Iran for 40 years. It's not a traditional royal family or anything. They have to be forced into the seat of power. This regime will never collapse like this. You can back off if you want and come back when the Dow is over 55k or something. Everyone will laugh because nothing was accomplished though.
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>>529595559
This idea that Iranian leadership was one man was always flawed and misunderstood the command structure. It's like thinking killing JFK would make America collapse it actually probably helped us come together.
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>>529600447
People don't know anything about Iran. Most aren't even aware that Iran has an elected President, or that it's minority Muslim.
The structure that it has is a lot more stable than golemutts are hoping for.
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>>529595559
Claim your enemies killed you so they stop trying to assassinate you. Run the war in a secret bunker with zero downtime. Do we have a body? Can we see it?
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>>529595559
>Wait, you mean a country doesn't just tip over if you kill the big bad?
Do think tanks hire only retards or something?
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>>529603047
>come back when the Dow is over 55k or something.
kek
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>>529599954
>stacking the deck more and more against them
The gulf nations are fat arabs who can't fight and have to hire mercs. Saudi Arabia were getting their asses kicked by the Houthis several years ago. They have no real power except for air.
There isn't going to be regime change without ground forces. So Iran can keep this going and turn up the pressure until either the US and Israel either stop or the US goes in and it turns into a guerilla war.
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>>529595559
>WE DIDN'T WIN IN 48 HOURS IT'S LITERALLY OVER FUCK FUCK FUCK
go fuck a goat retard
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>>529610170
48 hours? woah woah woah, we ment 1488 days!
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>>529601980
This war is going to last until whoever has more ammunition. If AA capabilities in Israel dies, shit hit the fan. If Iran no longer has power to strike, it's over for them. Iran is doing good by attacking everything around, since you divide the need for AA to operate in certain areas.
Who is more important, kikes or petrol Arabs? We know who is, but would a UAE like the answer?
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>>529595559
Wait, so killing a 86 year old spiritual leader and his relatives, including 14-month granddaughter, and striking a school full off little girls doesn't work???
This doesn't make any sense! We should have pro-american regime already?
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>>529611910
this. iran has the edge tho they just need to not cuck out and accept a deal like the 12 day war they were about to hammer kikes hard but they accepted , they still have a chance now if they keep the war sustained and out-produce the enemy , china is master of cheap mass production hope the chinks help iran with their underground facilities they dont have to enter the war directly