Thread #62112707
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RECALLED GOODS EDITION.
>Latest developments on the illegal and unconstitutional US strikes against Iran
https://iran.liveuamap.com/
https://x.com/sentdefender
>Some helpful links to numb the pain
https://findahelpline.com/
https://www.nvidia.com/refunds/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/refunds
https://jlingz.com/
>European indices
https://live.euronext.com/en
https://www.justetf.com/en/how-to/invest-in-europe.html
>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
>Financial TV Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/
>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
>Screeners: so you feel like in the movies
https://finviz.com/
https://etfdb.com/
>Gambling:
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices
>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/
>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits
>Boomer Investing 101: so zoomers with meme stocks can outperform you
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings
>Misc smg:
https://www.financialjuice.com/home
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates
previous smigger thread
>>62111430
312 RepliesView Thread
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1st for tech
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so whats the next big thing? taiwan/china?
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The Jews have managed to keep the oil futures market below 110$ since March 10 just based on vibes and lying that everything will be over soon. They even resorted to a fake ceasefire and fake peace talks to pump the market with some unjustified optimism. And people keep believing this slop, from the same literal Jewish Israeli Unit 8200 Mossad Barak Ravid at Axios, MAGA rag New York Post, and Jew Walter Bloomberg planting fake stories about Iran secretly capitulating to Trump on the phone and giving up enrichment 10 minutes before the market opens every single time oil is about to hit 100 in the premarket. Idiot goycattle just keep falling for it again. Spot prices are through the roof. Even if the Strait opened now infrastructure still damaged and it would take months to repair and ramp up production. How much longer can these fucking Jews keep the price suppressed? OPEC just announced oil production fell 27% in March, this is a massive oil shock the likes of which we've never seen in our lifetimes.
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>>62112714
The market is lurching around from fear to exuberance. Money has nothing to do with it. Geopolitics has nothing to do with it. Only what's going on in this frightened creature's head matters. It may do the opposite tomorrow. All we can do is hang on and see.
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>>62112716
>He thinks its the 70's
>He thinks oil is only in the Middle East
>He doesn't realise America wins either way
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>>62112722
I could beg you to stop investing in leveraged instruments, and point out that they reset every day and your actual gains are more like 40% over the value of the actual stock in exchange for twice the downside, but I know it wouldn't do any good. All I can do is wish you well.
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>>62112711
>>62112715
nuclear energy, biotech, aerospace, chemistry
>>62112714
the rich can pump themselves to keep everyone else either down or at percentages of their gains and they will do it again. financial markets extract long term volatility from the poor and give it to the rich
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>>62112716
just lying long enough until this shit is over.
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GAY
Tomorrow I will short the market with the power of 1000 suns.
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>>62112707
+10.4%
I don't even know what I did so right
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OFFICIAL BASED TICKERS
>MU
>SNDK
>IQE
>AAIO
>GRRR
>BBW
>NOW
>IREN
OFFICIAL BAGGOT TICKERS
>WTI
>TSLA
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Is that you lil guys buying up here???
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>>62112714
I explained it here >>62112702
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Call your female broker and tell her to buy calls, the homozi is spread wide open baby!
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>>62112727
No. The US can't just increase production like that and certainly not enough to make up for the loss of supply. They can only dump the strategic reserves. The only ones who can are the GCC countries and they are the ones who are affected by the current crisis.
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I'm down a lot.
Good thing its just money
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>>62112741
Strength above the 200 MA usually signals a bullish push
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>>62112754
one of the truest quotes along with goyim dealing in the real world kek. magical computer algorithms that will never ever ever be figured out by the cattle.
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>>62112742
the whole thought is denial worst possible futures wouldn't have been priced in. in fact the space of possible outcomes became more predictable since the start of operations in iran in that shortages of oil fluxes would have incurred global problems the usa would not have had enforcement to have fixed. markets don't work for people, they price last settled trades. the rich in usd either bailed to china or are running on denial or harvesting pumps and what's left trading are those two last groups. a lot of wealthy interested literally cashed out on the usa years before that iran op and ended those cash outs once it started
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wow sandisk can just skip the s&p 500 and join the 100? Is this why its pumping?
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clown market
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>>62112714
More important things are underway!
Preparation, for a great, once in a century celebration!
You should be excited Mr Mumu! Some day you will get to tell your grandkids you were there!
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>>62112707
Ended up +1.85%, unexpected turn of events even when the day started way in the red
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>>62112767
Then wipe that frown off and start Haw-Hawing :)
Hehehe funny clowns :3
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based market
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>>62112736
Be patient bear anon.
It isn’t time yet!
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>>62112762
Nigga shit like this happens all the time, you either stay solvent long enough to enjoy the convexity of mispriced tail risks, or you blow up getting there. Doesn’t matter what today or tomorrow bring, market WILL price in reality at some point
My theory is you need to see hotter PPI/CPI/prices paid reports in conjunction with slowing growth. If the market fears recession, but can’t cut because inflation, it’s worst case scenario
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>>62112765
Nobody knows why it's pumping. Please remember that their last earnings report was double the most generous estimate of price per share. If their earnings on the 30th are a mere 50% over analysts' estimates, it will crater. Hang tight and keep those trailing stop loss orders in place.
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As a Bobro do I prefer to get fucked with syrup or jelly.
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>>62112786
I agree with this, but that's only an explanation of one parties incentives, not the entire markets. The market at large is also refusing to price in the way things are heading and keeps falling for fake headline bait.
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The market is never wrong, and correctly priced oil at below 100, which means trumps war is a nothing burger. Third world shortages doesn't mean shit to the market, only U.S shortages, which will NEVER happen. Imagine betting against the government under trump lol
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>>62112781
>enjoy the convexity of mispriced tail risks
try using other llms next time. markets don't price anything but what was purchased at what price and there is no such thing as "reality" either. markets don't fear and don't hope, those are numbers and nothing else
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>>62112765
>>62112788
it trades at 8-9x next years earnings and earnings keep going up. that is why the stock is going up.
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>>62112797
>try using other llms next time.
That's exactly what's happening though, and I doubt and LLM would say it with as much snark. VIX is at 20 and we have the US Navy blockading international waterways on strait that has leverage over the whole world. Tail-risk seems mispriced right now.
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>>62112795
markets don't fall for headline bait, you confused cause ith consequence. the rich move and the goyim get some news story whereas why the rich would have moved would have had nothing to have done with (((screens)))
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lmao I was working, what the fuck happened again? Did Axios truthed something?
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>>62112784
>maximally bad outcome'
You don't understand what "maximal" means. You are describing something "still bad", but not as bad as it would have been if at Feb 28th we'd have had carpet bombing since the start.
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>>62112802
>>62112805
party lines, buzzwords and a paycheck to dump on booze and hoes are not profitable
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>>62112791
>do I prefer to get fucked with syrup or jelly.
To us it's SEXY
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>>62112807
New York Post and Axios posted repackaged slop from a couple days ago before the talks failed that Iran is considering abandoning uranium enrichment, making it seem like they accepted it. Trump said Iran is begging him on the phone for a deal and he will get the magic dust somehow. Just more of the same fake Jew news to manipulate the market and keep oil futures under 100.
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>>62112803
>markets don't fall for headline bait
They definitely have been lately. You could argue, of course, that it's signaling true intent but what we see happening is a causative relationship with a fake headline and markets pumping. What you're saying doesn't make sense, because the volume only lands after the headline.
>>62112810
I'm using 'maximal' in the same the poster I was replying to was, which is you apparently. And your timeframe doesn't make sense, we hit lows on March 30th and have only received worse news since, yet markets have rebounded.
You're trying to rationalize away the movement into a way that fits your narrative, and that's fine, but where it gets annoying is when you act like your narrative is objectively correct and any other assessment of fair value is wrong. I think the market is underpricing tail risk and I like to buy low and sell high.
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> 9 days straight gains in a row so we GOTS to go down
here's where we stand vs. every other time that happened THO
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>>62112831
>HALF OF AMERICA WILL LIVE IN THE DIRT
meanwhile in bongland for years and years now...
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Remember how happy bears were this weekend? How their eyes lit up when the negotiations failed
How they celebrated when the US blockaded the straight
oh how their silly little dreams have been ruined, it brings a smile to my face
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>>62112843
True, but thems the breaks mang.
I thought to buy a SPY for later, should have. Glad I'm green for once this year, up 17%.
Today was a wild ride.
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My lil MUU be doin a lil sum sum after hours
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>>62112810
30% of the world fuel for vehicles gone is kind of bad for an industrial society anon, even if it has been a disaster for the human race.
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>>62112857
>ITS COMING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE BORN AMERICANS THOUGH
Big if true. But I should probably be cashing out and relocating to a safer country at that point no? The goys are already pretty uppity, surely they will finally violently revolt once they realize?
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>futures
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HOLY FUCK EVERYBODY STOP WHAT YER DOING AND LOOK AT SANDISK
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Never bet against tech. Have you learned nothing?
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USA USA USA USA
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>>62112882
what kind of tech?
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>>62112752
RELEASE THE FRAKEN
>>62112895
niggers from eglin
glowies
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>>62112837
>I'm using 'maximal' in the same the poster I was replying to was, which is you apparently.
Why even write that sentence if you already notice that -- no, you are not using it the same way. I'm the authority. I wrote the original post.
What's so hard to grok about the concept of:
Imagine a world where in 2026, we had 10 entire months of full on carpet bombing and war crimes (i.e. starting at 28th Feb).
Then, we have the possible future outcome where the full on carpet bombing only starts at May 1st.
8 entire months of worst case > 10 entire months of worst case
What's so hard to understand about that?
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I'm revising my previous DING DING post to +2.28%
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>Every single weekend post was bearish.
Kek, never change /biz/raelites , best reverse indicator in the entire web.
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MSFT was actually green. that usually takes a miracle.
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>>62112898
They can't "just" frack twice as much or something overnight. I'm telling you. If the rest of the world could just make up production that easily, they would have. Permian Basin already peaked. You need to read more about how this shit actually works. It's never so simple.
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>>62112906
just take assignment ano...
>naked
oh fuggg
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>>62112736
You better check your account balances because you might not be shorting anything for a while
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>>62112819
>hormuz DOUBLE closed
>US restocking the ammo and fuel for another assault
>the jews broke the fake ceasefire
>not much has changed for the better and the market is pricing shit as if victory was promised 3000 years ago and the supply disruption has a positive effect
>even the shittiest companies like intel are getting a moon tour
>tech earnings season soon
>*checks previous tech earnings season* blood red
>*checks fed rate cut probabilities*
>odds for rate cuts are not gone, there is some 1.6% for a rate cut by june. at least 25% chance for at least 1 small rate cut by EOY but what the market prices in at the highest probability is no rate changes this year
>markets move literally by the force of a trump tweet and sometimes some bullshit fake news propaganda pumps the market as well
thank you for your attention in this matter
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>>62112899
>>62112904
This is what you said:
>At the start of the war, it looked like it might be the case like that there might be a many-month war where more than half of the oil infrastructure in the Gulf gets destroyed, desalination plants blown up, and so on. But now it does NOT look like that MAXIMALLY BAD outcome can happen anymore.
I can only go off of what you communicate, in this case the implied maximally bad scenario is
>a many-month war where more than half of the oil infrastructure in the Gulf gets destroyed, desalination plants blown up, and so on.
And that's still on the table today, I'd even say the odds are now greater that this will happen than they were in February. The market was reflecting the escalation as it bottomed around $630 end of March, but since then has rebounded despite the situation only getting worse.
>Imagine a world where in 2026, we had 10 entire months of full on carpet bombing and war crimes (i.e. starting at 28th Feb).
>Then, we have the possible future outcome where the full on carpet bombing only starts at May 1st.
>8 entire months of worst case < 10 entire months of worst case [corrected]
Yes, and everything so far indicates this future is still on the table and every week that passes by without immediate and effective resolution makes the oil situation worse.
I understand the point you're making, it's obvious and is distilled into the phrase 'the market hates uncertainty', but so far we've only been approaching the more damaging end of the spectrum of outcomes possible, which is why so many are in disbelief of this rally.
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I'd also add that the 'maximally bad situation' has now grown to include conflict with China or other major powers. So if anything we've moved closer to the bad outcome side, and actually expanded it a little bit with this US Navy blockade.
At the end of the day the strait is STILL closed and there is no deal or resolution in sight, both sides are refueling. Seems like this is month one of the many month war you mentioned, and the bears are mad because this is being ignored.
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I'm losing so much money right now it's unreal
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>>62112920
>so far we've only been approaching the more damaging end of the spectrum of outcomes possible,
100% your opinion. one that is clearly not shared by the majority of investors.
>which is why so many are in disbelief of this rally.
this is a minority of investors.
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>>62112925
From The Economist:
>With American production near record highs (see chart 4), they will not invest in new wells until they are confident high prices are here to stay. Even then they could add only up to 300,000 b/d over 6-12 months, estimates Jorge León of Rystad Energy, a consultancy.
https://archive.ph/2oicX
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>>62112930
Of course it's my opinion, the market is made of disagreements between participants. The other guys take was his own opinion, too. And I'm aware it's not shared by the majority, that's why tail risk is, imo, underpriced right now.
>this is a minority of investors.
By volume, maybe, but maybe not by headcount. We'll have to see how it plays out in the end to know what really happened. Volume's been light and I'm not alone in feeling there's a larger than usual dislocation between reality and the markets currently.
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>>62112924
>o add that the 'maximally bad situation' has now grown to include conflict with China or other major powers.
Nah, if anything china will pressure Iran to negotiate, they're not stupid.
This is massive fuck up, but both sides want to negotiate, it's just that Trump and America cannot be seen as weak so they'll over act and bark and yell and gesture... And they will sit again because going into the next elections with the gallon at $6 is a suicide. Dems would win both chambers.
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Why is INTC about to blast past their previous ATH of $74 per share in June 2000?
I don get it.
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>>62112950
Meanwhile...
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>>62112949
this is true. they control the money and media/communication channels too. uppity goyim have a flying lawn mower with their name on it if they try anything weird or cringe.
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>we are seriously letting boomers exit at these prices
for fucks sake bring on the great shartening. the market needs massive deflation so boomers cry. we need more crying old faggots who didn't love their family crying in the street and on tv.
more crying boomers I demand it.
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>>62112951
>if you make money when oil is down you are a shill
Get a load of this fucktard.
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>>62112955
>Nah, if anything china will pressure Iran to negotiate, they're not stupid.
While I agree, the point in this context was that the market aims to price in all possible outcomes weighted by the estimated probability of each. There's a non-zero possibility of some uncomfortable escalation with China now, which the market is seemingly not pricing in along with all the other escalations. China was shipping missiles to Iran for example, AFAIK, and might have to force a response to the strait blockade. Even if unlikely, these things are now on the table whereas they weren't before, but the market is still up. Using the arguments he provided, you would expect the argument to go DOWN in this case.
Just saying this to discredit some of what the other anon was getting at, since he seems to think it's been all sunshine and roses since February.
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holy shit the seethe lol
imagine being this bulltard larpers and working for their masters back in moscow who desperately want oil prices to skyrocket, but also need to protect their orange nig ally in the white house from criticism, talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard case
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>>62112962
>>62112964
if it's not the USA, the market doesn't fucking care. That's third world shithole problems, not USA problems. Topkek oil baggies
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>>62112928
I lost almost my entire lifetime profits just before the US got involved in the war. Holding was never going to pay off as I was in MULL. I got back into SNDK at the right time thrice, but minor pullbacks keep getting me to sell for two-digit profits.
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>>62112951
>Then why are bulltard larpers celebrating
onj literally no news!
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My penny stocks have been doing well this entire time.
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>>62112991
>>62112993
The harder you shill in /smg/, the worse the situation on the ground must be.
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it's kind of insane to me that the strait isn't even open yet and it just keeps going up
will nothing ever happen?
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its pretty simple
world governments are shorting the hell out of oil futures with near infinite money + using their media connections to manipulate algos and dissuade traders from going long.
Personally I wont even touch oil because we're one walter bloomberg tweet away from dropping to $70
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trump is celebrating selling export oil to other countries tankers while gas prices skyrocket all across the king's land lol better post another trump gen in a g-string to smooth that one over with the maga base lol if there's anyone even left but the shills
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s the Strait open - No
Is oil being shipped- No
Are gas prices decreasing - No
At least trump got to have a homosex encounter with a ufc fighter as the ceasefire talks collapsed, even told him he should be a male model
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>>62113022
> -676
hmm how did he come up with this price point
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this market makes zero fucking sense
9 green days in a row. I think that's a record or it's close to it. Even the greatest bullruns, with very high optimism, do like 7 green days in a row lmao
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>>62113038
FRIDAY WASNT GREEN
>>62113039
TICKERS?
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what are markets anticipating? That the war is basically already over, that the straight will be opened, or that there will be oil coming from elsewhere?
Without trying to sound like a seething baggie, what the fuck is going on? This feels like hubris on steroids, or is this the New Normal™?
I only hedged last week so it was still a good day for me today but just not as good as could have been.
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>>62113010
Some of the hydrogen stuff I've seen is doing well. I'm not personally invested in them but they don't look bad. As for helium I'd be careful, I got burnt a little on one stock because I deluded myself despite looking at the fucking leadership red flag I saw but overall I don't think helium will be that short since there is already multiple projects going for some time at developing new helium sources like Aminex and their stuff in Tanzania. I'd look elsewhere.
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Does anyone else have negative P/L for the last 4 years except me?
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>>62113042
t. bought his first put
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>>62113022
"crazy guy on the bus" type of person tweeting about the stock market is not a good sign
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>>62113061
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Reminder that the Israeli government has started spamming all caps across multiple 4chan boards to shout down anyone who disagrees with their shill narrative. You can see this happening in any thread that discusses the strait closure.
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>>62113068
All caps faggot has been trolling the general for at least the last 14 hours, sucking trump's dick in nearly every post and then you got his discord faggots dog piling if you say anything negative about the orange nig
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>Credo Technology Group (CRDO) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire DustPhotonics, a leading developer of Silicon Photonics Photonic Integrated Circuit (SiPho PIC) technology for optical transceivers, in a cash-and-stock deal.
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>>62113055
It's much less nonsensical when you consider that most buying and selling is done by people who don't know anything about anything except how to buy and sell. Least of all do they know anything about the the things they are buying or selling.
Proof: Chris Wright's lie about a tanker being escorted through the strait caused oil futures to tumble even though his claim could not possibly have been true given the military situation in the region
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>>62113060
I'll have to check on hydrogen. AMFN isn't really helium, they are a nuclear fusion company but their reactors need helium-3, a rare-earth. They supposedly have a source tapped on it, but I can't find much. Short term they have a 1.6b stock cancellation incoming (court approved) so it'll get a bit of a jump there. 3He is the only thing holding me back on it.
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strait status?
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Bullish as fuck
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I asked AI to summarise sentiment in /smg/
85% bearish
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>>62113093
Well mine says that's 80-20 for the bullish side
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>>62113097
>>62113093
LLMs in a nutshell
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>>62113099
>tangible assets
>corporate baseball cards
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>>62113093
ChatEBT says 65% bullish
>Mostly bullish on price action, even though a lot of posters sound bearish on fundamentals/news.
I think that pretty accurately sums up how most smiggers feel except for the delusional mumus and permadoomer bobos
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>>62113093
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Well damn, I finally hit $300k in stocks.
Why do I feel like nothing improved, i’m still a fucking miser with no GF who lives with his parents…
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>>62113105
they unironically hold physical assets and also produce revenue that typically outpaces inflation. sure it's not gold bars but they will still greatly benefit from a crushed America. you see the meme "never bed against America" is actually a meme because stock rise when America is doing poorly. you're unironically betting that America will continue to do poorly by going long, which is nearly a guarantee.
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Friday was the last day of extreme fear
Today we entered fear but are quickly shifting into neutral and will rocket into greed before entering extreme greed on peace confirmation this weekend and stellar tech earnings next week.
NVDA to $300 by end of July
Cap it smiggas.
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>>62113121
they are simply to big to fail
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>>62113123
>>62113120
Sorry meant $200
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>USO peaked $909 in 2008
Wew imagine being that level of baggie.
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i need a busty brown non negroid woman to stimulate me by sitting on my face and making me bask in her pussy's musk
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>>62113107
>they're pricing another reality prompted by truthposts.
You say that as if it doesn't make sense. Yet it does.
To a large extent, securities markets operate on greater fool theory. The goal is often not to hold for dividends or to hold to maturity, rather the goal is to offload the security to someone else at a higher price than you bought it. What matters is not what you think of the security, what matters is what you think others will think of the security, and what you think others will think others will think, and so on.
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>>62113113
>a manic-depresssive degenerate gambler who's convinced the entire global financial system is a Jewish conspiracy designed to personally fuck him, but he can't stop refreshing charts and YOLOing options anyway
I've been found out!
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>>62113087
Why are slavs so obsessed with shit?
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>>62112882
Kek
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What the actual fuck, so by acting irrationally trump ended up making everyone act rationally. Please fucking don’t tell me the US somehow gets out of this shit clean. What the actual fuck.
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>>62113082
Fuck yea! Im glad I sold anet and held on to this bagger. Made my day Anon. I bought 100k at the absolute top.
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>>62112962
Now that I think about it, when you see graphs like this going back loooong in time, do they use the physical oil price or the futures oil prices?
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whats our plan on sndk earnings report bros, do we sell before or keep holding
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>>62113113
Stop gang stalking me!
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>>62113156
I’d imagine. The refined petroleum basket. Oil is the precursor for a very many products. So gas pump and end user petro products. But honestly. The inflation calculus is such bullshit. I’m not sure how much use it is.
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cheer up bobos! There's nothing a good goon session can't fix
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>>62113152
>Do something
>Win
Chinese century bros… It was supposed to be the opposite of this….
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>>62113107
Well, the thing is that Trump has sent a message that he is willing to do anything to not let the markets crash. That is a powerful signal. It's clear right now that the markets matter more to Trump than anything related to Iran.
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>>62113189
>Standing on the rooftops, everybody scream your heart out!