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time to buy Meta

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dreaming of hormuz

>>62130462
would that not be time to SELL meta?

>>62130467
what does fucking a dead girl feel like?

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>>62130471
>>>/b/catalog
fuckoff

>>62130462
What is the bull case for meta in 2026? They're bleeding users on all platforms, the metaverse failed, and Llama isn't even the conversation when it comes to top AI models.

>>62130462
Good for meta thinking about the shareholder

also what does "TACO" mean in this context

>>62130474
Uhhhhh bots to artificially prop up hits for advertisers and Instagram

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Do you guys genuinely think Donnyboy can keep lying his way to keeping the market from collapsing? Are we just playing along because we're invested?

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>>62130474
don't they own snapchat & instagram?
i don't see instagram going anywhere, tons of rich kids use that & advertise their businesses/hustles/music/whatever there, etc
>They're bleeding users on all platforms
are they?

>>62130474
the only thing Facebook has is a firm grip on marketplace. basically craigslist now. I can easily see them not existing in 20 years

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>>62130481
>THE market
just buy things which won't go down xd

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>>62130456
please don't post in this thread either

i wonder to what degree these threads are a botnet dark forest, just bots talking to each other to trap niggers like me into somethign or other

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> futures

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>>62130462
Long term (30+ years out) the situation is as follows:

Non elites have never been less valuable in terms from a productivity perspective to the elite.

But elites have never been as weak as they are now militarily with drones, automatic rifles, etc.

Therefore you should invest in technologies based around soft power and making normies retarded, and short books and education.

This is financial advice.

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>>62130490
how does the dog get off?

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>>62130422
>just learning to fucking program instead is worth your time instead.
I can tell you are retarded, but damn dude, that retarded? In Excel VBA is the programming language, and there are dozens and dozens of add-in packages available in Excel. You never need to use a spreadsheet in excel, or you can use on if you want, or you can just the functionality (virtually unlimited), you can create your own user interface. Outside of Excel you can use Visual Studio to create your own custom functionality in visual basic or C# and there and hundreds of nuget packages to add to your solution. Anyone who tells you excel is just a spreadsheet is a special type of retard. Excel now also has (and has for years now) the M querry language and power model, which you can also customize. I know I am wasting my time with you, but for anyone else who may read the comment, or look at the ass pic, never some retard at work tell you what to learn or not.

>blocking a stupid river
>not targeting reddit 4chan facebook/instagram X tiktok servers

islamic terrorism is so lame I swear to god man no wonder muhammad gets joked on on fucking south park of all shows while jesus gets edits with guns. Holy shit man then catholics gotta act like they are on team shia islam standing up with iran cause they got dunked on by protestants and jews in the thirty years war.

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>>62129917
shill me on these

>>62130470
no, AI is letting them clean house

>>62130474
fb, insta + reels, whatsapp, llama is the old model they have muse spark now

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>>62130492
>Therefore you should invest in technologies based around soft power and making normies retarded, and short books and education.
FUCK MAN
FUCK
THE ARCHIVES ARE ALL GONNA GET DESTROYED, I HAVENT HAD THE MONEY TO ARCHIVE ANYTHING
FUCK

>>62130496
if you write code in excel, you have nobody to call a retard but the man in the mirror. i cant believe i just read all that garbage

I HAVE NO CONNECTIONS EITHER & I DROPPED OUT OF HS
HOW WILL I ACCESS THE LIBRARIES
>>62130499
>no, AI is letting them clean house
that's vague but alright

>>62130497
>if you don't support fighting the Jews war for them you're on team shia

>>62130483
bears will watch a stock go up their entire lives and then die broke. the end.

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>>62130509
this except the bears are me

>>62130513
this wouldn't even be hard to fix, you could just fucking double-check everything the AI does
it would still only need like 10% of the manpower
EVERYONE IS SO FUCKING STUPID

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FUCKING FAGGOTS AND NIGGERS AND INDIANS AND TRANNIES THINKING THEY CAN PROGRAM
NOBODY CARES ABOUT DESIGNING ALGORITHMS ANYMORE, NOBODY
THEY'RE ALL STRAIGHT & WHITE & DEAD!!!

>>62130490
>Built to run
>Forced to ride

>>62130506
imagine if your company could layoff 10% of its employees and do the same work or more work. you just saved millions of dollars.

>>62130496
>Outside of Excel you can use Visual Studio to create your own custom functionality in visual basic or C#
I did someting like this a while back and I'd share it here but I'd end up basically linking my /smg/ persona with my persona in another general on another board... and I dont want to do that

>>62130515
Despite numerous articles about how AI is best to replace interns and every level workers people keep either acting like it can replace everyone on the team or that it's useless and can't do a single thing to help.

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>futures

>tfw fired from job
>tfw forced to get a seasonal job at an amazon warehouse because nobody else will hire me.

at least Im making 32/hr cause I work 60 hours a week.
What are some stocks for this feel?

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>>62130518
i suppose so
there has to be a catch, though, i feel

i studied LLMs in 2021 but i haven't kept up too much, i'm surprised the companies are able to generalize them as much as they have but i can't see it continuing, and idk how sustainable it is now

>>62130522
i don't think i've read a single "article" on AI, i can't imagine trying to decipher anything through all the noise/controversy/misinformation xd
i have an idea of what it can do, and i have an idea of what the average programmer is like (a fucking lazy nigger who hates algorithm design)

>>62130505
>i cant believe i just read all that garbage
just look at the titty pick then no excel retard

>>62130507
>saudi arabia is team sunni
>saudi arabia is israel with tires on their heads that like to poop on women instead of be landlords in the ghetto

anon be real here its two team war. You are either in gang protestant-jew-sunni-pajeet or gang catholic-shia-chinese-russian. You gotta join a gang when ww3 goes down.

i don't think it's black and white
clearly you can get some "productivity" out of them
but like i said, there has to be a catch to what >>62130518 says

oh fuck i misread your post sorry, you literally addressed this how it's not black and white...

>>62130526
the catch is it requires a modicum of reason, understanding, and intelligence

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im selling my etf and mu and buying back in when the war kicks off again.

>>62130513
things that didn't happen for $400

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>>62130537
yeah apparently so
i guess, in that sense, it's weeding out which companies are most functional/rational/useful & which ones are completely retarded/useless
to some degree

but i wouldn't know how to profit from this

>>62130532
It makes sense that your upset the pope spoke against religious wars when that's your fantasy

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>>62130494
it takes a mighty force to make it happen

>>62130526
it might be time to check back in. its been 5 years.

>>62130540
>i guess, in that sense, it's weeding out which companies are most functional/rational/useful & which ones are completely retarded/useless
or maybe more specifically,
the companies who focus on abstract performance metrics while doing nothing real will fall into the trap of using AI improperly
while companies who actually get specific useful shit done on a regular basis are less liable to get tripped up
something like that

>>62130538
doesn't matter, if the war starts again we already won.

>>62130478
>also what does "TACO" mean in this context
it's a reference to the BURRITO acronym, which means Bitches underperforming raging rallies into the open
and TACO is a backronym of that, which means Technical Analysis Cope Overdose, from chartists who keep drawing more lines and squiggles when their prediction fails

it's all wall street lingo from the 80s. kinda surprised people know about it

>>62130546
i'm guessing if any major breakthroughs in the tech itself were found, i'd have heard about it
but i may be wrong
if i'm not wrong, there's only so much you can get out of an LLM like i said
they're limited by training data, quality & quantity of that data, and the sophistication of the way that data is organized
more and more neurons generally leads to overfitting & makes things worse, but fewer might make things unpredictable
recurrent networks are interesting, i'm guessing that's what they use which is why there's a limited conversation history before it has to be "reset"

So it's been half a month now. Surely we now have fill-ins for Nancy or whoever are now the top traders in the political sphere. What did they sell lately?

>>62130550
>it's all wall street lingo from the 80s. kinda surprised people know about it
i wonder if something starting spreading it lately as a psyop xD
>it's a reference to the BURRITO acronym, which means Bitches underperforming raging rallies into the open
>and TACO is a backronym of that, which means Technical Analysis Cope Overdose, from chartists who keep drawing more lines and squiggles when their prediction fails
tyty

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>>62130513
This would be more sympathetic if his QA team didn't do their work while sipping chai from beanbag chairs, living their charmed lives on the back of the break neck output of SEAmonkey slaves transforming looted African raw materials into value using carefully saved Chinese money.

Wiggercollars bitching about their plight when they did nothing to help their bluecollar countrymen since the 80s deserve to be beaten in a struggle session boss.

Unfortunately for them capitalism will win in any case, despite their simian screeching.

>>62130496
Kek bro lecturing me on how hes running power query garbage and VBA in excel. Back off plebian I load everything into azure and run it through fabric into power BI if you need charts, if I need anything only VBA can offer I can just run an office script through power automate to call it. Lick my boots spreadsheet monkey

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>>62130544
you told me size doesn't matter! babe!

>>62130555
>>it's all wall street lingo from the 80s. kinda surprised people know about it
>i wonder if something starting spreading it lately as a psyop xD
>>it's a reference to the BURRITO acronym, which means Bitches underperforming raging rallies into the open
>>and TACO is a backronym of that, which means Technical Analysis Cope Overdose, from chartists who keep drawing more lines and squiggles when their prediction fails
>tyty
dont forget the ENCHILADA and QUESO acronyms
but you could google taco as well

>>62130559
i dislike relying on google instead of people at this point
but more importantly i thought it might've been too new/obscure of an acronym, or some twitter shit

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Yep, looks like my quant is telling they will use scorched earth tactics on the markets.

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>>62130563
my quant doesn't even speak english, hindi only and he's a god damn cripple

>>62130552
>i'm guessing
>i may be wrong
>2021
>i haven't kept up too much
thats one way to live

>>62130569
u write like a woman

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>Boss did not submit my mileage and meal expenses claims
>have to wait another two weeks
Mileage alone was like 1.2k
fuck i might miss the next dip

Another week, another round of SOXL weeklies?

>>62130571
yeah it's her, she's posting while skitzo is sleeping

>>62130571
no woman would talk to you

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>>62130579

i just hate spooky vagueposts mainly
especially on /biz/
this is supposed to be an autism website

>>62130572
Just borrow money from yourself. You do have a cash reserve, right?

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>>62130557
>into power BI
woohooo we got a brainiac here talkin some hi level stuff fo sure lolololo

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I just made and ate this.
I'm so fucking full.

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Is it just me or do you also see the right shoulder forming here?

>>62130592
tasty

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Still holding my norf sea oil play becausem....,

>>62130586
Funny guy considering your arguing pivot tables and excel macros are more useful than real databases and actual API integration

>>62130580
what a creepy pedo you are

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Night 1 of wrestlemania confirmed to have barely 50k attendance. Down big from last year. Recession is coming soon bros

At what point does this war start to become real bearish for ZIM?

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>>62130538
it's literally just netanyahu tweeting for him at this point

>>62130598
I feel the same way boss.

>>62130582
You don't ever borrow from yourself. You're either strong enough or not, borrowing from yourself to pay yourself later is so weak boss.

>>62130605
oh shit...
yeah when attendance for WWE and beatboxing competitions goes down, u know people are losing their money..

how to profit from a recession?

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>>62130615
Puts. But you have to time it.

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>>62130620
>>62130620
>But you have to time it.
dunno shit about that

>>62130496
Her eyes are far apart

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>>62130490
>Some dogs are doggos, others are puppers

>>62130615
Leaps or short.

>>62130490
god i wish that were me

>>62130525
Amazon!

>>62130513
The cuck QA goy probably did help them too

Bobros, we need to start a movement. We have to make everyone aware the only way this war stops is if the market crashes. We need people pausing their 401k contributions and no retail buying until the war is firmly resolved. Imagine a full quarter of no 401k buying pressure. Only selling no buying, no leverage shorting either.

>>62130637
You increase buying during a crash.

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traders have moved on!

>>62130637
you want to buy the dip bro!

>>62130637
the steady increase in 401k dominance is what's destabilizing the market
let it ride

>>62130623
Look its not easy, sometimes you get surrounded by women and even though you only have one penis the other girl makes you use your face and its not comfortable because while you're being used as a suck and fuck machine, people in Isreal are being bombed and invaded by people that went door to door through neighborhoods putting babies into ovens while murdering men on sight. Now I don't know about you, but I don't want to be targeted for my children to be placed into microwave ovens, or being shot by people who only believe they will get ahead by death through battle and get to score with 42 virgin women boss, but like in 5 years I could do 42 women, thats less than 1 a month boss.

i bought SQQQ on thursday, am i chilling?

>>62130637
It’s not retail and 401k contributions that turned the market nuclear green the last 3 weeks
>>62130646
How does steady biweekly contributions destabilize markets?

>>62130471
your little pecker probably won't penetrate through the rick & mortis bagina

>>62130640
>>62130643
>>62130646
you're not getting the point, I don't care about what happens to the retards who'd fall for it. Imagine how much puts would print if it took off and people were pausing contributions until we were out of Iran.

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>>62130633
there IS a massive bull at my warehouse, in fact its our mascot. Is that a buy signal or a top signal?

>>62130659
>>62130659
>It’s not retail and 401k contributions that turned the market nuclear green the last 3 weeks
no shit, but it'd encourage a drop back down to reality if people realized they have collective political leverage with that

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>>62130651
>people in Isreal are being bombed and invaded by people that went door to door through neighborhoods putting babies into ovens while murdering men on sight.
t.

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>>62130481
considering the market is 90% vibes and a charisma skillcheck
yes

>>62130664
Charging Bull in NY is good luck. your bull is close enough lol.

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>The sculpture was created by Italian artist Arturo Di Modica in the wake of the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash. Late in the evening of Thursday, December 14, 1989, Di Modica arrived on Wall Street with Charging Bull on the back of a truck and illegally dropped the sculpture outside of the New York Stock Exchange Building. After being removed by the New York City Police Department later that day, Charging Bull was installed at Bowling Green on December 20, 1989

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movie nite starting soon
tonites movie is "Pusher" (1996)
I think it's... foreign language...

>>62130689
> in the wake of the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash
Why didnt he make it a bear?

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>>62130686
that one got cucked by a statue of a little girl though, ours has more SOVL

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>>62130659
markets are suppose to be capital allocating machines. but when everyone just piles in without thinking about it or doing any valuation, float decreases, less supply with more and more people lining up to buy an increasingly smaller amount of shares. all that float just gets locked away and doesn't move or respond to growth, valuation, risk free rates. so as it continues volatility gets wilder but the market trends higher faster and faster. because the shit piss is market cap weighted it also increases concentration. basic supply & demand, if everybody fights over less and less supply, the price goes up. price goes up and more people want to buy. until the whole thing becomes so illiquid it buckles.
nobody is doing capital allocation anymore so it just leads to horrible societal repurcussions. we couldn't go two fucking decades without a real estate bubble & datacenter buildout is complete misallocation which will be a drag on growth for years to come. same with the internet, tech & productivity boon was real but laughably overbuilt because everybody was making enough money to afford to keep their heads firmly planted up their asses. we're sitting at like 60% of the market just being buy & hold which is insane and antithetical to the concept of capitalism itself. 401ks and sitting in quality beta is fine but if everyone (EVERYONE) is doing the exact same shit are you really diversified?

>>62130700
buybacks are also hugely important in this equation

>>62130693
wikipedia says
>Charging Bull was intended to inspire each person who came into contact with it to carry on fighting through the hard times after the 1987 stock market crash.[9] Di Modica later recounted to art writer Anthony Haden-Guest, "My point was to show people that if you want to do something in a moment things are very bad, you can do it. You can do it by yourself. My point was that you must be strong."

>>62130694
Charging Bull is world famous. that other artist is nobody. it was removed years ago. i am glad other people disliked it for trying to ride Charging Bull coattails and lets be honest change the Bulls meaning.

>>62130692
Ima too scared to click on that link

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that gif reminds me
last week i invested in some hot dogs and buns, but the buns started going bad, i saved what was still good and took it out and fed it to the ducks, i know i'm not supposed to feed bread to ducks, but it makes them so happy, and seeing them happy makes me happy, so it was a good investment i think

>>62130706
>make positive message about carrying on even after bad times
Original artist seems like a cool dude. Also probably the only artist to ever think "wont someone think of the poor investor bros" lol.

>>62130711
>it makes them so happy, and seeing them happy makes me happy, so it was a good investment i think
enormous gains
congrats, anon

>>62130598
whats the norh sea play that isnt BP i couldnt find it on US brokers. AT or something

>>62130700
Well typically you’d have a correction that would help balance some of that out. But it’s not being allowed to happen. I agree with a lot of what you said.

>>62130714
yeah lol. def visit our boy if you are ever in the city.

>>62130467
too soon

>>62130515
>you could just fucking double-check everything the AI does
yeah that's called doing QA work

>>62130641
are those guys stupid? someone inform them they can buy stocks on their phone these days

>>62130742
yeah i honestly hadn't caught that they tried replacing a QA team with AI, that's retarded
i just saw "team replaced by AI"
xd

>>62130700
hypothetically what if was some monthly rebalance of value or momentum or both? would you have a problem with that? Like capitalization weighted but also with value and/or momentum in the equation

if the S&P creates some kind of inefficiency you think you'd be able to exploit it somehow

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jerome please
stop this war please

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>>62130621
kino

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>>62130757

>>62130641
oh wow the wars over now. thanks traders! why didn't you do this week 1 though many died waiting

>>62130757
>low intrest rates encourages investing
>war is investment by other means
In theory Jerome spiking the interest rates might stop the war, right?

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Not my folio but holy rape why the fuck can't I just stick to one big boomstock. Instead it's a slow grind upwards and fear.

>>62130474
Shit just goes up, because.

ive been telling you retards on and off the bull market only goes up and bear markets are dead as long as the president keeps rolling nat 20s

>>62130746
Just apply it to everything else. You just need a new team to make sure the AI doesn't fuck up. Does it save time? Who cares. It's AI!

I can't wait for this fucking bubble to burst so we can buy RAM and GPUs again.

>>62130481
Reality will catch up eventually. You can't just shrug off supply chain disruptions. The market manipulation can't continue beyond a point.

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>>62130785
if by rolling nat 20s you mean printing 5 trillion in three months then yes i agree for now.

>>62130785
until it doesn't... soon

>>62130456
is this op supposed to be funny? be mean to people of concern? that part of the US is a top 5 target if nukes fly and all in that area would be dead

>>62130749
looks that's been happening this year desu what with defensives and divvie stuff. any mechanism that rewards moving money to somewhere more deserved is good when the marginal buyer isn't doing that like right now. exploitable by just buying calls to frontrun the constant flows i guess. honestly thought the war was going to throw a monkey wrench into the works but apparently not

These last 2 weeks have been pretty taxing mentally. Hope oil just goes back up to 120, exit my positions happily and sit on my hands again. All I wanna buy is risk assets that are sure to dump while the war is still ongoing/oil crisis starts hitting (crypto) and physical pms. I'm hoping PMs will be like in 2008 if we really do get a recession/market crash. Should still have another 20-30% til they bottom in the case and I can have cheapest again. I like the Canadian silver dollars and maybe I can buy my first oz of gold. Only ever bought gold sovs, got 2 but had to sell them to fix my car a few years ago. Bought at 1,800 an Oz and sold at like 2,300. Feels bad. Glad I could fix my car tho

Questions:

How are "activist investors" able to invest like 1% in a company and boss the CEO around? Nigga, it's just 1% ...

Whys private equity a bad thing and is hated by R*ddit ? What good do they do?

>>62130801
i bought an ounce at 1,200 and sold it at 1,850 thinking i was a gigabrain

>>62130801
Also I don't know if any of you miggers have been following this, but it seems like russia and the Baltic states could potentially end up in some sort of situation as well because of ukie drones using their airspace to hit targets within Russia, and also european drone factories making drones for the war effort. I only mention it due to possible financial implications compounding with the current iran issue.

>>62130806
Lol I feel you brother. Right after drumps became president i sold silver because I thought the economy was gonna be so good I'd go back down again. Pretty retarded. Only thing that made me feel better was i ended up needing that money not too long after anyhow.

>>62130806
I sold NVDA in 2023 happy with a 2x

>>62130800
yeah im just wondering how differently you'd feel about the 401k flows if they were directed to a more dynamic basket like that, it'd be weird if people were trying to front run value before a monthly or quarterly rebalance but it'd be a healthier market probably.

if the largest fund was rebalancing all the time the market would be weird though. Like if the S&P 500 was the top 500 stocks monthly by some value criteria multiplied by market capitalization. idk it'd be weird. I'm not sure what passive flow mechanism would be best but all in S&P 500 probably isn't' best.

gold and BTC investment should definitely be more common for passive flows though.

>>62130651
bag bro, you know israel exaggerated october 7th attacks right?
like jews always do. you know not to trust them. you're a blue eyed aryan man of thule

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>>62130758
based

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>>62130785
>>62130790
should i buy out of the money SPY calls with a 1 week expiry

>>62130820
good thing it's getting ready to crash hard with everything else

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>>62130838
>it's getting ready to crash hard with everything else
how's that?

>>62130805
do reddit mods still work for free even though RDDT is a 30B dollar company? i legit dont know lol.

PE firms can make a lot of money... there have been some famous failures also where they add too much debt or cut costs too much and hurt the company (Kraft)

>>62130700
>because the shit piss is market cap weighted it also increases concentration.
no, this is absolute nonsense on a theoretical basis, and doesn't match the facts anyway
people were piling into the mag 7 names, not blinding buying S&P500 index index funds
if they were, the concentration wouldn't change at all
> but when everyone just piles in without thinking about it or doing any valuation, float decreases, less supply with more and more people lining up to buy an increasingly smaller amount of shares. all that float just gets locked away and doesn't move or respond to growth, valuation, risk free rates.
the mag7 names were bought up like crazy. the other 493 stocks were not as much, meaning there is plenty of float left over for the rest of the stock market
for the hyper scalers, not so much.
>nobody is doing capital allocation anymore
Yes, they are. They dropped the riskier tech stocks during a crash. Then went back to risk on during the rally. This is totally normal behavior, and is exactly the kind of capital allocation you would expect. risk off to risk on
>we're sitting at like 60% of the market just being buy & hold
let the goyim deal in the real world. active stock traders can do price discovery. everyone else can just sit back and enjoy long term gains. Not everyone should be day trading

>>62130840
DEMAND DESTRUCTION look it up

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>>62130843
i did & i think i understand the concept, what next?

>>62130845
you looked it up in less than 2 minutes ?

>>62130785
>ive been telling you retards on and off the bull market only goes up and bear markets are dead as long as the president keeps rolling nat 20s
yep
stock market goes up, until donny fucks up bigly
next stop is cuba, so I think that will be easy
by the time he gets bored of dominating that country, it will be time for midterms. so probably a good thing. he'll be distracted by the political battle too much to do the war thing
then about 3 months after the election, ESPECIALLY if the stock market is stalling out again, he'll do some batshit crazy thing
and if it works, he'll just move on and call it a very stable genius move
if it doesn't, he'll take it back, which will somehow magically jolt the stock market out of the sideways stall to new ATH
this will continue working, until suddenly it doesn't

remember, trump did the venezuela thing in january, right as the stock market started to stall out. It worked magically, to everyone's surprise. and the stock market didn't crash. Then he went crazy mode, and kept trying more risky shit.

>>62130849
yes i type at 160 wpm, i have 4chan open on my laptop and a browser open on my desktop whose keyboard is less than 12 inches from my laptop
i am giga schizo

>>62130851
>32 pbtid

I see , maybe it's time for a break

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kill vagueposters
roundhouse kick a vagueposter into the concrete
etc

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>>62130671
Need Khazar breeding harem

>>62130785
>>62130850
>rolling nat 20s
?

>>62130856
haha same but for 30+ ptbid

I refuse to trade in a market where the most effective strategy is to come every day and retardbuy calls at 9:30
I'm outta here wake me up when there's a 30%+ dump

This is gonna be a crab Monday, won't it? A small decline on open that will recover by the close. It somehow seems to work that way for whatever reason.

I dropped $1300 on a shit stock only for it to shoot up to $14500 28 months later.

Literally 1.84 and now it’s at $20.50. Why the fuck do I even bother trying to trade

>>62130867
No crying in the casino.

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>>62130864
so as long as I am under 29 posts I'm okay?

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>>62130869
no sharting in the fartsino

>>62130867
>I dropped $1300 on a shit stock only for it to shoot up to $14500 28 months later.
I hate when that happens. I like it when inflation eats away at my ability to live a decent life. I would rather pay more taxes like Matt Damon so illegals and live for free.

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Remember liberation day? Wha a fucking day that was

>>62130863
Basically referring to a skill check in a game. In this context, The Don's ability to say shit and if being critically successful as far as pumping the market and suppressing oil prices go.

>>62130827
i guess it'd be kind of better but i don't see how it would change anything much. if everyone buys the same basket and buybacks go on it's still the same dynamic. gold for sure
>>62130842
combination of bogle and buybacks. people buy S&P. NVDA big part of it. disproportionate money to NVDA with disproportionate supply. concentration.
>there is plenty of float left over for the rest of the stock market
i agree. it's not illiquid yet and likely won't ever get there as the concentrated names will break before it gets to that point.
i shouldn't say there ISN'T capital allocation just that now most marginal buyers are not really aware of what they're even buying. agency risk of overvalued equity. and i didn't even imply that people should be "day trading" lmao. the reason we have a market is because it's suppose to reward those who can allocate capital efficiently over time which is not happening in the biggest parts of the market. it's rewarding concentration in non-productive rent seekers. as for that RORO being normal behavior, blow it out your ass. 20% returns every year for six years, a 25% drawdown reversed in two months followed by a gigarun into a 10% drawdown reversed in two weeks? not normal. tape is telling you the same story i am.

>>62130864
>>62130869
;-;

>>62130878

My schizo explanation is that loose monetary policy and money printing is just getting sucked into the stock market. The market is behaving like never before because never before has so much been printed so quickly.

>>62130878
well what do you think is optimal for managing passive flows? the passive flow is essentially just the masses shorting the dollar, selling it for something that should hold up better. I agree blindly dumping into the S&P 500 isn't optimal but I don't know what's better.

>>62130883
So you're saying that this time it's different?

>>62130886
the market shouldn't be this passive at all is the point. nobody knows what's better because it's been working. makes it hard for anybody to outperform the index without just going leveraged long the index
>>62130883
my schizo explanation is people see the number go up and they hit the buy button. it's a theory i've been working on

My energy drinks went up to $40 for a case of 24.

God damn you trump

BOGLEHEADS GET THE ROPE
eventually
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-HEwyokKOc

>>62130893
gotta use caffeine pills at this point man

first they came for the ciggies, and i said nothing

>>62130895
Raise my tolerance too high. Thats why I switched to energy drinks

I took 4 200mg pills all at once and thought I was going to have a heart attack.

>>62130893
must be some cheap ass no brand energy drink

>>62130900
Ghosts. I used to drink c4s but they kept giving me kidney infections

>>62130892
>markets shouldn't be passive
well then what do you suggest? how are the unwashed and unthinking masses supposed to beat inflation and optimize wealth trajectory otherwise? it's only natural flows would huddle together like this imo and this would be form a self-fulfilling cycle. Wherever the passive flow is directed I'd think the same thing would happen..

I can agree with the specific criticism that passive flow going straight to the top US equities 500 by capitalization regardless of value etc is a net negative for the markets, but there will always be demand for a vehicle of efficient passive flow capture and it seems like any passive flow is gonna get dislocated from the norm.

>>62130903
you must not be US

>>62130892
The only alternative I can think of that would keep the market non-passive would be if the 401k flow was directed to hedge funds and trading firms or something.. But that'd inevitably result in some very upsetting blowups.

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>>62130842
I wonder how the math works out on how much active traders influence the market relative to total boglebros.
Like say you have 3 companies, and active traders value it at 1:1:1 ratio.
If you have 100 active traders and 100 boglebros (assume equal investment weath for each person), and the active trades decide due to even X the companies values are now 1:1:2 instead, does the market values of those companies fully adjust to a 1:1:2 ratio? Or do the bogleheads prevent that happening? And does that retarding effect increase with more bogleheads?

Thinking it out, with zero bogleheads the companies would immediately adjust to the new 1:1:2 ration of value as the trades all rebalance their portfolios. Meanwhile, if you have 1 active trader and a million boglebros, the 1 trader doesnt have enough weight to counter the inertia of the bogleheads (I think?) and the market is just perma stuck with companies at their current relative ratios. The trader (if he is correct) is rewarded with better dividend payouts, but the company that should be reward with higher valuation for being in a better profit generating position gets nothing. Shit, if I am thinking it out right, that actually seems pretty bad long run.

if this market was rational absolutely everything should have crashed 50% by now. EVERYTHING

You've failed

>>62130915
not reading this schizo ramble

>>62130471
Dry and cold

>>62130909
It could be mixed maybe? So your investment portfolio is only allowed to have X% invested in index funds and the rest has to be directly investments?

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rip

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>>62130509
Fuck bears

best tickers to short...

>>62130931
>inside you are two bulls
>one is the first week of April 2026
>the other the second week of April 2027
>you are a slutty little bobina

>>62130933
I meant April 2026 for both im just so forward looking I forget it's only 2026 still

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>>62130934
In my neck of the woods, we call that being retarded

reminder, the market is in a short term rally
reality will set in soon
that we must rally EVEN HARDER

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>>62130898
>I took 4 200mg pills all at once and thought I was going to have a heart attack.
yeah that's way too much xd
i think people get misled by the "default" caffeine pill dose being 200mg

you can get a pill cutter and cut them into halves or quarters, a 50mg dose (keep in mind it's instant unlike a coffee you sip for 10-30 minutes) will hit about the same as a generic american cup of coffee

there are also fancy XR caffeine pills lol

>>62130948
see, in situations like these, the hard part isn't predicting the start/end of rallies
the hard part is predicting how many fucking tricks the fed is gonna pull out of its sleeve to try and control things, how many times they're gonna sike us out

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A documentary of white excellence
https://youtu.be/YtrVcOxVDls?si

how the fuck does ma ta shi ta get pronounced mata asta fucking mentally ill transliterators

>>62130960
unless you're playing a longer game, i guess, then it's somewhat easier?
fuck that though i'm broke

>>62130948
JPow will prevent that on Wednesday. Combined with Iran's propaganda, we are taking down Donald Trump's influence on the markets.

>>62130973
>JPow
he isnt your friend
all you have to know

So what will happen with the oil shorts that us gov and jap gov made?

>>62130977
oil is hitting 70s or maybe even 60s by june lol

>>62130637
the most aquarian post i've ever read. hey babe, how's your night goin?

>>62130837
if their realized volatility had been cheap for five previous days compared to those of in the money calls and those calls'd have been cheap maybe
>>62130790
>>62130492
it's beyond over

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>>62130496
all of my suffering is because of the flesh

>>62130988
fuck

what happen to swiftie?

>>62130992
i saw him posting a couple days ago, he should still be alive

>>62130992
blockaded by Iran

What dips are you buying on monday?

>>62130997
>monday
buying anything long after this rally before it cools down/gets a minor correction is flat out stupid
makes sense cause it is smg though

>>62130991
that some trade desks would have bought options on opportunity costs on volatility alone would have been some use case to those trades. on occasion $abc puts at x dollars would have had volatility some $cde puts would also have had at eightypercentx dollars bots would have bought those latter puts automatically so retailers could have front run some otherwise "cheap" otm calls beforehand

>>62130994
>should still be alive

that good?

>>62130973
this is silly. waste of your time and brainpower. sad to see really. i love you and miss you, losing sight of why but i do. have a good night babygirl.

>>62130999
I'm expecting the Iranian peace deal to fall through. I hope SOXL makes it to 100 thougheverbiet, that's my profit target. If so I score 10k. I need money. I want to start sugar dating.

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>>62131000
trips checked
>>62131001
perhaps

>>62131000
if you have any recommended reading, i'd read it
i'm going over what you wrote several times

>>62131007
you just buy cheap otm calls or puts and pray to lord you coinflipped correct because volatility helps you beat out the theta boss

why this thread always so damn slow

>>62131027
it was faster a few hours ago
>>62131012
that was my understanding more or less xd
the other guy said some shit out of my pay grade i wish i understood, hopefully i'm not missing anything

>>62130989
almost all suffering
>>62131007
https://www2.oberlin.edu/physics/dstyer/StatMech/book.pdf
download it and read chapter 4.9, summary of major ensembles at page 123 regardless of whether to have understood it or not. financial markets exist to extract "long term volatility" from the poor while the rich would have had to have sold "short term volatility" at cheap prices. that short term volatility could have made the poor rich is what financial markets try to suppress via the rich to have overbought or oversold intruments for example. those short term or long term volatility would have been cold or hot heat reservoirs which would have interacted via ensemble statistics. all financial markets are statistical physics. read at least that chapter

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to have short interbank overnight rates would have been matters of style

>>62131035
>overcomplicating
not a single PM cares about these lol

>>62131035
also how to have traded the vix 101
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_(finance)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_on_realized_volatility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realized_variance

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>>62131035
fuck, i hate thermodynamics xD
sounds like this might be the key though
>download it and read chapter 4.9, summary of major ensembles at page 123 regardless of whether to have understood it or not.
will do
>financial markets exist to extract "long term volatility" from the poor while the rich would have had to have sold "short term volatility" at cheap prices. that short term volatility could have made the poor rich is what financial markets try to suppress via the rich to have overbought or oversold intruments for example. those short term or long term volatility would have been cold or hot heat reservoirs which would have interacted via ensemble statistics. all financial markets are statistical physics. read at least that chapter
will

tyvm anon

>>62131041
ty

>>62131035
I desire the flesh and I want to be desired... Capitalism and technology has done wonders lifting millions out of poverty...but I fear this is an inequality that will never be erased.

>>62131039
sure. go back to sleep
>>62131042
predictions on thermodynamics are actual iq filters

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>>62131046
you underestimated physics, chemistry and biology

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>>62131059
>ass droids

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>>62131048
need to learn it sooner or later i suppose

>>62131061
how did you get those

>>62131061
did you not see the vision though?

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>>62131035
>https://www2.oberlin.edu/physics/dstyer/StatMech/book.pdf
>4.5
>herd instinct
BASED BASED BASED!
>completely misunderstands the concept and application or mechanism of social contagion, the hard (original "gregarious" instinct)
oh... gay!
many STEMcels are embarrassing themselves like this!

>>62130866
I suspect the crash will happen Wednesday or Thursday with the ceasefire ending and the bombings ramping back up. Then you'll get to read the cuckmarket headlines again. Traders retreat on fears of war lol bunch of chuds. I'm 100% convinced this war exists solely so faggot insider traders can profit off oil yoyoing. God I wish someone would fuck them over so hard they all ritualistically commit suicide like Epstein. I'm so sick of this fake and gay ass war and being forced to trade around it.

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Gold/Silver mining stock bros over at /cmmg/ are becoming millionaires and yall are sitting here losing money.

>>62131071
lol
>>62131070
:o

>>62131079
oh really which tickers did they buy

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>>62131071
You have no idea when the short term crash will happen unless you work at JPMC

The pumping has nothing to do with peace or the lack of peace.

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>>62131071
>>62131083

>>62131070
would npcs not have been predictable or predicted both in particular and general anyway? the masses would have had inertia in behavior for example

>>62131083
based
a
s
e
d
>>62131085
she's reading right now

>>62131083
The ceasefire is the only reason we stopped dumping. This war is the fakest and gayest bullshit I've seen in my entire life.

>>62131083
>The pumping has nothing to do with peace or the lack of peace.
fr?

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>>62131087
(sorry for multipost)

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>>62131093

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>>62130992
found swiftie >>>/bant/24230132
i think

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Can the writers end the Iran war arc, it’s getting boring. Oh I know let’s prolong it by closing the strait again! Real compelling writing guys. We know you’re just trying to fill air time

I'm going to start investing...how should I start out? not an ideal time to start with al the crazy I know but I got to start somewhere

>>62131083
Man I’m so glad you’re posting. The bull run is still on

>>62131082
Snowline gold, or even if you're lazy buy the GDXJ

You would have made a lot of money over the past 1.5 years and its going a lot higher

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>>62131091
The ceasefire has absolutely nothing to do with it.

The changes in the SLR requirements which happened a day before is the cause.

This effectively prints 2 trillion dollars conservatively and more likely 7 trillion dollars.

It went into effect April 1.

That is the cause of the pump,

>>62131101
also in the US

>>62131108
literal april fools prank?

>>62131108
when you realize you're wrong and retarded you can remember I told you so. I don't even want to be right but the market literally moved on war hopes ending to the T.

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>>62131108
Until this money goes out into the wild and does its thing the short term pump will not end.

And you cannot know where the banks are at in that process until either next earnings or unless you work there, and even then you'd only know your own banks situation.

In addition to this the FED has been pumping to the tune of 300 billion, as has the FDIC and Fannie and Freddy for a few hundred more billion.

There are other forces at work as well which I will not go into here.

None of this will stop Mr. Bobo but as I have been telling you you should not be buying puts just yet.

>>62131035
this is similar in spirit to how I model things, do you formalize any of this anywhere?

If the VIX is volatility based on a set of SPX options, could you theoretically arbitrage mispricings on volatility for the SPX constituents?

>>62131124
yes, you can do it across the whole SPX complex and this is commonly done. vol surface arb

>>62131086
can you reword your question plz?
i do not understand what you're trying to ask me.

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>>62131113
the prank is that i can post about this every night and 95% of the retards in here don't understand middle school social studies concepts like what the fractional reserve system is or how it creates money.

>>62131100
thanks

>>62131126
I mean on the actual underlying constituents of the S&P, not options on the S&P. Shouldn't there be some relationship between the expected volatility of the underlying constituents and the volatility on the index they makeup?

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bearish as deflationary?

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>>62131130
>>completely misunderstands the concept and application or mechanism of social contagion, the hard (original "gregarious" instinct)
>oh... gay!
wouldn't predictability in individual behavior in general have been gay as opposed to that example on changing names or how mass behavior would have had measures of when or under what constraints to have been predicted? for example how that "you will walk 29m tomorrow" to have been sixty percent accurate would have made the object of some such prediction gayer than to have issued how some "15% of market share would have had greater than five consumers would have bought x at some percentage chances"?
>>62131108
>>62131119
yeah about that. something about those numbers would have yielded at least some borrowing volume thresholds or some quantity to have filed some short with. maybe. someway
>>62131120
somewhat, but it would take long to post on patebin or something. it was used on the brazilian b3 because price quotes have been public vis

ticker,hist_ticker,statistic_mode,anchor_date,rms,cos,corr,lcs,n_trades,dedup_score,padded_rms,padded_corr,padded_score,hist_entry_price,hist_return,hist_days_held,lev_dist,mny_dist
WEGEO583,VALER321,cheap_grinder,2025-02-21,0.6768998990504878,0.8357871045623265,0.7709032633327199,7,21,5.846420714646776,0.6525482367191284,0.7870903993773782,0.1345421626582498,0.02,3.5,4,0.003979660433863403,0.09195827259753189
from
[....]
df["realized_vol"] = (df["premax"] - df["premin"]) / df["close_price"]
le_vix = (
df.groupby("date")["realized_vol"]
.mean()
.reset_index()
.rename(columns={"realized_vol": "low_end_vix"})
)

return le_vix
later on realized vol would have been split into short term cheap vol, long term cheap vol and all combinatorics with intruments having been aggregates of each via parititon functions vis one stock would have had xyzw for short term or long term or cheap or expensive volatility and from then to ensembles

>>62131153

## 2. Decomposition: where arbitrage enters

If you can even approximately decompose:

* short-term variance contribution
* medium-term variance contribution
* long-term variance contribution
* *and* coupling leakage between them

then you can detect situations where:

> the index price reflects one mixture,
> while the vix is already operating under another.

>>62131153
The vix is the price people are paying for calls and puts on some SPX options. How does vix come into the picture here if you're trying to arb between SPX and constituents?

But yeah I guess you could? You'd be taking the vol surface of the constituents, probably making your own projection of what it should look like under your model, and comparing to SPX current state?

>>62131167
>You'd be taking the vol surface of the constituents, probably making your own projection of what it should look like under your model
*composite projection

>>62131167
>inb4 homework
https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/indices/Cboe_Volatility_Index_Mathematics_Methodology.pdf
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-reading-vix-does-vix-predict-future-volatility.pdf

>>62131160
>“susceptibility” means “herd instinct”
The analogy is bad even internally using the authors own poor understanding.

If the goats run as a group and the cows refuse to do so as group, they are still in equal measure making decisions as a group.

Herd instinct cuts both ways, it doesn't have anything to do with motion itself, but consistency of action among members.

Inertia doesn't apply either.
The herd instinct simply refers to the consistency among members of the the group, and how quickly consistency is achieved.

"Herding cats" is a popular colloquialism for example not because cats are slow or fast to react to a signal within a group, but because as solitary creatures they have no pre-programmed instinct to remain consistent in state with a group, so it is very difficult to get them all moving or stopped in one spot.

>>62131167
specifically via how differences in expected long term volatility and short term volatility would have been priced different by indexes and their constituents. ticker abc could have had 20% iv for some time frame priced at 1 dollar while the same volatility could have been priced at 0.5 dollar for time frame plus something for example. that difference could have been paid for via >>62131041

>>62131176
>groups are gay
yessirski

>>62131059
that'll probably happen long after I'm gone

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>>62131137
you have the same disease as penelope, which is also how i can tell you're a woman. you can't ever be wrong, and when you are wrong, you conjure an alternate reality where you're right and everyone else is wrong only some moronic/evil force is making it seem like you're wrong to everyone else, but only temporarily.... and on and on. grok what disease precisely is this?

>>62131186
kys

>>62131120
have fun
https://pastebin.com/Twnvcpp8

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>>62131186
in fact i am a giant man thoughbeit
.
and as of yet i have not been wrong.
in spite of my bobopositing i have been consistent in saying we would see higher highs and not to short


Regardless, Mr bobo is coming.

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there's nothing to argue anymore

>"Be greedy when Sunako Kirishiki tranny is fearful." - Warren Buffet

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>>62130498
just long AMC
thank me l8r
>and autoignore any tranny using smigger, dipshit

>>62131212
He's our very own Jim Cramer

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>>62131212
The Celebration will begin once the liquidity I mentioned has been fully deployed.

Tik tok Mr Mumu.

it's too late I'm already all in dividends