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A pair of court rulings have shattered the party’s hopes of countering GOP redistricting gains before November's elections.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/08/redistricting-court-rulings-g ive-republicans-new-life-in-the-mid terms-00912692
Republicans just won the redistricting war — and boosted their slim hopes for holding the House.
The Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act last week, coupled with the Virginia Supreme Court striking down a voter-approved Democratic gerrymander of four seats on Friday, has all but locked in Republican gains through redistricting in this year’s midterms, giving them as much as a 10-seat boost with November rapidly approaching.
It’s leaving Democrats — despite all the political winds in their favor — fearful that the House is back in play. Their once-surprising comeback in the redistricting race was shattered in the court room, and they are left with virtually no way to respond before November.
“I think we still take back the House, but it’s a major setback,” said Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod, who has worked in Congress and on four presidential campaigns. “We have to just win at the ballot box. And we can do it.”
Added state-level Democratic consultant Trevor Southerland: “Rigged maps can overcome a lot.”
There’s every reason to believe the House will still go to Democrats, who need to flip just three GOP-held seats. President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to suffer, top Republican operatives are begging others in their party for a coherent messaging plan, and Americans continue to feel the effect of rising costs, especially gas prices amid the war in Iran.
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But conversations with more than a dozen Democrats across the country on Friday made one thing clear: The road to a House majority in November is harder than before. "[The Virginia ruling] certainly makes Donald Trump’s map even further rigged in the Republican favor, I think that gives Democrats a higher hill to climb,” said Democratic strategist Jared Leopold, who has worked on dozens of federal and state campaigns. “But Trump has the power to rig the maps, but he doesn’t have the power to get his approval rating higher, so I think that’s going to continue to be an anchor.”
Campaign strategists in both parties had assumed early on that the chamber would be a tough hold for the GOP thanks to Trump’s declining popularity and a long history of the party in power struggling in the midterms.
But the past 10 days have given Republicans new life. The Virginia court ruling means instead of being able to bank on picking up four new seats in the state, Democrats will now have to spend heavily to flip two or at best three seats this cycle. That’s after they already spent more than $60 million on the ballot measure the court just annulled in a year where the GOP has an overall fundraising edge.
That money now needed to shore up their House chances could force Democrats to make some hard financial choices.
“Dems are going to have to double down on winning the House — even if that means being unable to expand the map in the Senate,” said a Democratic strategist who was granted anonymity to discuss the political climate candidly.
The Supreme Court’s VRA ruling is a much more consequential one that will have a longstanding negative impact for Democrats’ House hopes this year and for years to come. Tennessee Republicans approved a new map carving out the state’s lone Democrat on Thursday, and a host of other Southern states are moving forward rapidly and with tight timelines.
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There are still outstanding legal challenges against GOP maps in Florida and Missouri, and it’s still unclear how many new GOP-leaning seats will be set in stone before November.
Just one year ago — when redistricting discussions in the White House had not yet been revealed — it was unthinkable that 10 House districts would be redrawn mid-decade to favor Republicans, even if some of them remain competitive. Mid-decade gerrymandering was rare, and the Supreme Court’s VRA decision, while widely expected, had not come to fruition and its timing was broadly unclear, making it seem unlikely that Republicans would have a significant edge going into November.
Both court rulings are immense wins for Trump and his political team.
James Blair, who pitched the novel idea of mid-decade redraws across the country to the president in the Oval Office roughly one year ago, posted on X about the decision with a tongue-in-cheek, “Lord grant me humility.”
Chris LaCivita, Trump’s 2024 campaign manager, praised Blair on X after the ruling.
“Always initiate contact — never wait for it to come to you … a maxim too few Republicans understand — but those who do pave the future,” LaCivita wrote.
In the end, it was the courts — not fellow Republicans — that ultimately handed the biggest redistricting wins to Trump. The White House dealt repeatedly with state lawmakers across the country who were not willing to heed calls to redraw — most notably in Indiana, where on Tuesday, Trump got his revenge against several Hoosier State lawmakers who voted against his plan.
And Democrats are unable to respond with more of their own gerrymanders this year, hamstrung by independent commissions, state laws, already-aggressive gerrymanders and their own cohort of reluctant lawmakers.
Still, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged, “Our fight is not over. We are just getting started.”
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The Republican wins may be locked in for 2026, but 2028 is another story. Democrats are already laying the groundwork to go scorched-earth. Republicans who so far haven’t budged over the last year may also hop in, especially the Southern states that don’t seem likely to redraw before November, like Georgia.
“It’s not over until it’s over,” said Adam Kincaid, the president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust who drew Texas’ map last summer.
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>>1513546
This is exactly why I kept rolling my eyes at all this talk about winning the midterms.
Yes, everyone hates Trump. Yes, in a real election we'd win. But they're just going to cheat. You KNOW they're going to cheat. They've said they're going to cheat. Both you and them have said they cannot win without cheating, so they're going to cheat. And lo and fucking behold, they cheated.
How the absolute fuck did anyone anywhere think you'd be able to just vote out a fascist regime like any other administration? How the fuck can you be that naive?
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>>1513550
Its funny that you would frame it this way, when its actually the Dems that have gerrymandered to allow for black-majority and hispanic-majority districts in a country where every district should be white-majority because whites are the majority. Sans any gerrymandering of any kind, every district should be white because whites represent the overwhelming majority of the people here. (70%).
The only way you can get minority-majority regions in a nation by definition is if you specifically exclude the majority from the vote in that region by districting in such a way that the ghetto/city/minority region has a district on its own that excludes the white majority from the vote. They are in fact un-doing cheating and allowing the vote to proceed properly, representing Americans (and nobody else), which is what the vote is supposed to represent.
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>>1513550
>Everyone I don't like is a fascist
Here's an alternative point of view that I know you'll bitch and hem and haw about rather than acknowledging but I'll present it anyway. What if he's our lawfully-elected President (twice) and actually represents the majority of Americans who flocked out to vote for him because they actually like his policies and want him to implement them? Have you ever considered that the other 340 million people in this country aren't you and that perhaps you are in the wrong?
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>Utah
For the record: Utah’s map redraw was the result of a judicial intervention against an earlier GOP gerrymander, not the product of a Democrat campaign.
This should be obvious, since Republicans control the Utah legislature.
So far, the only real Dem. victory is the one in California.
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By the way
https://x.com/maayanschechter/status/2052166149580755406
>South Carolina House votes 87-25 to advance a sine die resolution that now includes redistricting, opening the door for the legislature to redraw maps after session ends May 14.
South Carolina Republicans are going to redraw their maps too.
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>>1513556
Really showed me with not reading those last eight words. I'm glad all the talk about Trump cheating and rigging the election wasn't contentious, though. It's important to have common ground.
>>1513557
No, fascists are fascists. Trump is one. This is an objective fact. It doesn't matter if he won the election, he's still a fascist, and that's still really bad.
>b-but people like his policies!
No, they hate his policies. They liked what he sold them during the campaign, but that was a lie. An obvious one, but we're Americans, we're kinda dumb.
>b-b-but 340 million-
You don't know how elections work.
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>>1513561
>Things that never happened
He's not a fascist, he's just not you. If we wanted to vote for the faggot party we'd have done so, but we didn't, and here we are. You're in no position to dictate or recite objective fact, and honestly, if we actually had a fascist he'd probably burn all the communists and hang all the foreigners so no, its not really bad at all. It would represent an objective improvement over Trump's half-baked policies.
>We're Americans
You're so full of shit your eyes are brown, friend.
>You don't know how elections work
Yes I do. You lost, and it was working as intended.
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>>1513561
>Really showed me with not reading those last eight words.
Really showed me that you're another faggot who doesn't know what the fuck you're talking about.
>waaaaaaahhhhhh trump is gerrymandering like we've been doing for several decades. FASCISM!!! HOW DARE THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS VOTE HIM INTO OFFICE!?!
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>>1513566
>you're another faggot who doesn't know what the fuck you're talking about.
Project harder, bitch.
>>1513568
>>1513569
He is. I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of words.
I'm not. That's why you're here.
You don't. 340 million Americans doesn't mean 340 million voters, you fucking retard.
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>>1513571
>Project harder, bitch.
Cry harder, faggot.
>He is. I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of words.
Because you can't make an argument. He was voted into office fair and square. Do yourself, and the rest of us, a favor and kill yourself if you can't handle democracy. Or fuck back off to whatever echo chamber you came from.
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>>1513546
I fail to see voters picking Dumpycraps to fix problems again, since there were no problems last time that needed fixing and Democrat control was worse than current year's bullshit.
Then again voters are retarded so who can say.
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>>1513573
>Cry harder, faggot.
You didn't even deny projecting. Well done, that's progress!
>Because you can't make an argument. He was voted into office fair and square.
No, because I'm not going to argue with racists and retards who's counter to Trump being a fascist is "b-but he was voted into office!" It's not worth it.
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>>1513574
>People vote to remove the browns
>The other side of the government locks up the vote and engages in endless semantics and infighting to keep the browns from being removed
>Not understanding that when you remove all legal recourse to give the people what they want, they must then turn to illegal recourse
To be fair, we did vote for it. The fact that the other side refuses to let it happen is what necessitates the dissolution of our democracy, because they're intent on making sure that going full fash is the only method available to remove the browns. What do you expect, exactly? That people will let them stay? Because that's way, way worse than living in an -ism. We're talking about subhumans here, after all.
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>>1513584
>A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls, violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.
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>>1513582
>You didn't even deny projecting. Well done, that's progress!
You didn't deny your blatant faggotry as you keep sobbing onto your keyboard.
>No, because I'm not going to argue with racists
Waaaahhhh muh illlegals can't stay waaaaahhhh I don't like immigration laws waaaaaaaaahhhhhh
>and retards who's counter to Trump being a fascist is "b-but he was voted into office!"
Which shows we don't live in a fascist nation. Protip: they don't allow voting.
>It's not worth it.
Because you can't make an argument, besides 'you voted for Trump and that makes you a bad person!'.
gb2BlueSky
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>>1513589
>>A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls, violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.
Democrats?
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>>1513597
I'm not playing a part you colossal faggot, I'm legitimately asking. Where can we vote for a cantidate that will run on an open platform of belligerant nationalism and racism? Because that guy deserves a fucking medal, whomever he is. All of the medals.
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>>1513594
>You didn't deny your blatant faggotry as you keep sobbing onto your keyboard.
>Waaaahhhh muh illlegals can't stay waaaaahhhh I don't like immigration laws waaaaaaaaahhhhhh
An excellent demonstration of why it's not worth it.
>Which shows we don't live in a fascist nation. Protip: they don't allow voting.
Also this. Absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
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>>1513589
>A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator,
So not our current government.
>a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls,
So every capitalist nation on the planet?
>violent suppression of the opposition,
When did Trump order the democrat party to be purged and killed?
>and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.
Every western nation with immigration laws.
>>1513601
Well then make a counter-argument. Oh wait, you can't.
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>>1513603
>Literally not just a bit, not a shitposter, not a shill, not a bot, just a concerned citizen asking a very simple fucking question that you still haven't addressed
I. Want. To. Vote. For. The. Cantidate. You. Describe. WHO THE FUCK IS IT, YOU DENSE MOTHERFUCKER!? WHO!?
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>>1513603
Everything fits aside from the "Authority under a dictator" part. But since Democrats seem to function as a nearly 100% cohesive unit, we could liken such partisan shit as a dictatorship.
The rest is all there. The economy subject to stringent governmental controls, the violent suppression of the opposition, and the belligerent nationalism and racism.
How do you not see this?
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>>1513604
>It's not worth arguing with you.
>"w-w-well make a counter-argument!"
>>1513605
I wasn't joking about that thanks, you know. I was in a bad way, as you could probably tell, but I think I needed that.
>>1513607
>But since Democrats seem to function as a nearly 100% cohesive unit
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, and there's the punchline.
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>>1513610
>hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, and there's the punchline.
They do though. There's been like 1-2 times in modern history a Dem has had to grow up, put his big boy pants on, and cross the aisle to resolve some stupid stubborn Democrat shit, but mostly, they're ridiculously cohesive, even taming the Progressive totalitarian right wing of the party the majority of the time.
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>>1513610
I would unironically give my eyeteeth to see a cantidate running at the head of any political party that openly encouraged all Americans to be publically and unabashedly racist as an extension of their first amendment rights and engaged in a policy of belligerant nationalism that just told every single other country to fuck off and die in a fire. Yes, it'd collapse the global economy, but one good thing about economic collapse is that it makes everybody equal again. Everyone is worth one bullet, money and power and political clout can't help you and won't save you.
Yes, things would be rough, yes, we'd have to give up the luxuries to which we are accustomed, but at least we could hope for a future where America is a legitimate state populated by human beings and not faggots, communists and browns. It'd be worth it, no matter what name is on the party. I don't care if its fascist, corporate, techno-union or Luxury Gay Space Communism on the label. We need a cantidate like that, wholly and unabashedly and the fact that we don't have one is the biggest legitimate argument for tossing out Democracy as a failed experiment.
I'd love for there to be a cantidate like that. Not one that just professes to be anti-brown or pro-American, but one that legitimately and wholly is, and is willing to fight institutions to the death or outright destroy them in order to make that future happen.
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>>1513585
Your opinion isn't mainstream by any means and anyone who admits it isn't about any bullshit about the economy or criminals would instantly get blasted in any election, because "IT'S ALL THE MINORITIES FAULT!" annihilates your ability to secure votes if said directly.
In other words: Meds. Now.
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>>1513672
Yeah because it's an emotional attack on a very specific community using fake news as the source. And it IS hurting him now as Trump is bleeding support from minority groups and it's affecting Republicans nationwide as his actions start actively hurting them and they realize "Oh wow nevermind the Dems weren't exaggerating".
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>>1513695
Its actually that 13% is responsible for more than 70% of violent crime, your statistics are out of date.
>How could this happen?
They. Are. Brown. Brown people do this. Blacks also do this. They did not come from civilized places, they were not taught to act in a civilized manner. Simple as.
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>>1513680
Yeah and ever since they got complete control they've done such an absolute shit job they've lost almost every single election they tried. Fucks sake, Trump's own literal home district turned blue. This obsession with gerrymandering lately is because they recognize they are FUCKED come midterms, and they might even be fucked even with completely gerrymandered maps because things have swinged so bad seemingly red districts have turned blue.
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>>1513551
>when its actually the Dems that have gerrymandered
Indeed. As I've pointed out before, the entire state of California has only one (1) Rep district, despite roughly half the state voting for Reps.
"It's ok when we do it!"
t. Dems
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>>1513557
People may say they disprove of Trump's actions, don't mean they don't still support the man himself. They say you love a hog, warts and all, and that's how Americans feel about President Trump. If elections were held today, it would still be a landslide in his favor.
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>>1513550
>How the absolute fuck did anyone anywhere think you'd be able to just vote out a fascist regime like any other administration? How the fuck can you be that naive?
That happened in Chile with Pinochet, for some reason. It might have been a fluke though.
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>>1513556
>>1513557
>>1513564
>>1513566
There's a lot of reasons people call him fascist.
>>1513578
>WAAAAAAAAHHHHHH YOU CAN'T KICK OUT ILLEGALS LIKE EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD DOES DATS FASCISM
That's a strawman. They call it fascism, because of how they are doing "enforcing" immigration law.
Like indefinite detainment overseas without trial
https://archive.is/20250409235222/https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/kri sti-noem-migrants-trump-ice-prison
>The more than 200 migrants sent to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador by U.S. immigration agents should stay there "for the rest of their lives," Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Wednesday.
>Why it matters: Noem's remark reflects the Trump administration's harsh approach to noncitizens it views as criminals or gang members — in this case, arresting and deporting them to a foreign, maximum-security prison without giving them a court hearing.
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ICE wants to enter homes without warrants
https://reason.com/2026/01/26/leaked-ice-memo-claims-agents-can-enter- homes-without-judicial-warrants/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/01/22/vance-defends -ice-memo-telling-agents-they-can-r aid-homes-without-a-judges-warrant/
They'll even break in and arrest Citizens without warrants:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/14/ice-detention-minnesot a-investigation-false-arrest
https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-us-citizen-detained-h mong-d009590a491c0c8243ef21ef24db71 82
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>>1513722
>That's a strawman.
No that's an appropriate response to some homo crying
>>Not great for democracy...
>That's okay, we're phasing that out anyway. Because immigrants or something.
>The more than 200 migrants
Key word: migrants. Like that Abrego Garcia illegal who didn't even consider declaring asylum until he got arrested and caught. It's a bullshit loophole and everyone knows it.
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>>1513550
>Yes, everyone hates Trump
Wrong.
> But they're just going to cheat
Factually speaking, Democrats gerrymandered first. So they are the ones cheating. FYI Texas still hasn't actually redrawn its map.
>How the absolute fuck did anyone anywhere think you'd be able to just vote out a fascist regime like any other administration?
Ironically, its Virginia democrats who are behaving like fascists.
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Democrats started this war and they're mad they're losing. Ma governor Gerry Eldridge started it with the explicit intention to remove Republican seats. The VRA was created by Democrats to remove Republican districts under the disguise of representation
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>>1513877
>The VRA was created by Democrats to remove Republican districts under the disguise of representation
It's not Democrats fault Republicans can't win minority voters so they instead go out of their way to cut up their communities so they don't have majority minority districts.
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>>1513884
Those "Picasso art" districts are literally designed by Republicans to force Democrat territories into one single district when if it was divided into two the resulting districts would likely both be blue.
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>>1513560
>Jim Clyburn cuts a deal with SC Republicans to ensure his district is the only Democratic one in the entire state so he can keep playing party kingmaker
>They gerrymander it out of existence less than a decade later
Nice realpolitik, retard.
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